Game Recap: BUF 2, UTA 5, November 12, 2025

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Game Recap

BUF2

FinalWed, Nov 12, 2025Every game that night

UTA5

UTA beat BUF 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.20 expected goals to 2.28. UTA outshot BUF 37 to 19. I. Rosen led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Sergachev had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. K. Vejmelka stopped 17 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	1	1	0	2
UTA	0	1	4	5

1st 5:33BUFI. Rosen0.19 xG
2nd 6:42BUFI. Rosen0.19 xG
2nd 10:42UTAN. DeSimone0.05 xG
3rd 0:52UTAJ. Peterka0.14 xG
3rd 3:22UTAL. Crouse0.10 xG
3rd 10:09UTAN. Schmaltz0.15 xG
3rd 19:33UTAC. KellerEN0.50 xG

Team Stats

BUFUTA

19Shots on goal37

2.28Expected goals3.20

46Shot attempts65

165v5 shots on goal32

0/2Power play0/2

20Hits16

13Blocked shots9

24Penalty minutes14

19Giveaways11

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 2.28 xGUTA 3.20 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF18 on goal, 2 scored

UTA35 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
I. Rosen	RW	2	0	2	2	0	0	+2	0	15:56	1:04
J. Quinn	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	18:35	2:48
N. Ostlund	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	16:59	1:13
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	19:46	2:43
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	18:57	2:44
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	3	3	2	-2	0	16:18	1:29
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	15:36	0:00
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:31	0:00
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	0	7	1	-2	12	15:22	1:08
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	15:19	2:24
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	9:11	0:00
J. Dunne	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-3	12	8:19	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	0	24:33	2:49
O. Power	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	22:10	1:03
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	22:03	0:00
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	19:31	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	13:34	0:00
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	12:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ellis	36	32	4	.889	57:50	Loss
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Schmaltz	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+1	0	20:04	1:41
C. Keller	RW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+1	0	18:28	1:41
J. Peterka	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	0	13:43	0:42
L. Cooley	C	0	1	1	5	1	0	+1	0	20:48	1:41
J. McBain	C	0	1	1	0	2	1	+3	0	15:41	0:00
L. Crouse	LW	1	0	1	2	5	0	+3	2	14:43	0:00
M. Carcone	LW	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	11:51	0:00
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	14:19	0:42
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	0	13:53	1:41
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10	13:15	0:42
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:27	0:42
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:05	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	1	1	5	0	2	+2	0	26:24	1:41
N. Schmidt	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+3	0	22:47	0:42
J. Marino	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+3	0	21:53	0:00
N. DeSimone	D	1	0	1	4	1	1	-1	0	16:32	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	-1	0	21:52	0:00
D. Simashev	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	19	17	2	.895	60:00	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1A. Tuch13:44T. Thompson15:41R. McLeod11:20

Line 2J. Quinn14:24I. Rosen14:05N. Ostlund14:38

Line 3J. Greenway13:33J. Doan13:59T. Kozak13:26

Line 4P. Krebs13:12J. Dunne8:19B. Malenstyn8:18

Pair 1M. Samuelsson20:30O. Power19:02

Pair 2C. Timmins18:22B. Byram20:48

Pair 3J. Bryson12:07M. Kesselring12:22

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz15:40L. Cooley16:51C. Keller15:34

Line 2L. Crouse12:54J. McBain12:54M. Carcone11:51

Line 3D. Guenther12:12B. Hayton12:07J. Peterka13:01

Line 4K. Stenlund11:36K. Yamamoto10:17B. Tanev9:39

Pair 1N. Schmidt20:38J. Marino19:37

Pair 2I. Cole17:41N. DeSimone16:32

Pair 3M. Sergachev20:31D. Simashev8:15

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJosh Doan BUF Faces UTA, his team until Apr 20253 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.0, UTA 3.6	BUF 2, UTA 5
Total goals	6.6	7
Shots on goal	BUF 25.4, UTA 30.9	BUF 19, UTA 37
Win chance	UTA 60%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.1	0	0.90	0	38%	0
UTA D. Guenther	3.0	6	0.88	0	31%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.8	2	1.07	2	33%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.6	2	0.95	2	29%	1
UTA L. Cooley	2.2	5	0.91	1	31%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.1	3	0.55	0	20%	0
UTA J. Peterka	2.1	3	0.73	2	26%	1
BUF A. Tuch	2.1	0	0.76	0	29%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.8	1	0.48	0	18%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.8	5	0.76	1	14%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.7	2	0.36	1	19%	1
BUF J. Quinn	1.7	2	0.56	1	20%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.5	1	0.39	1	19%	0
BUF M. Kesselring	1.5	2	0.27	0	6%	0
BUF O. Power	1.4	1	0.41	0	7%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.4	0	0.38	1	8%	0
BUF I. Rosen	1.3	2	0.29	2	12%	2
BUF R. McLeod	1.3	0	0.58	0	20%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.2	0	0.32	1	13%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.2	1	0.32	0	15%	0
UTA D. Simashev	1.1	1	0.15	0	4%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.1	0	0.36	0	15%	0
BUF J. Greenway	1.1	2	0.26	0	11%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	1.1	4	0.28	1	6%	1
BUF B. Byram	1.0	2	0.40	1	10%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	0	0.32	0	11%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.0	0	0.29	0	4%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.0	0	0.23	0	5%	0
UTA J. Marino	1.0	2	0.39	1	5%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	0	0.15	0	6%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	0.8	2	0.22	1	11%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.8	0	0.20	0	10%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	2	0.23	0	3%	0
BUF J. Dunne	0.7	3	0.12	0	8%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.6	0	0.22	0	12%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.3	0	0.11	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.