Game Recap: BUF 2, VGK 0, March 17, 2026

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Game Recap

BUF2

FinalTue, Mar 17, 2026Every game that night

VGK0

BUF beat VGK 2-0, with the chances close: 3.04 expected goals to 3.02. Z. Benson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. U. Luukkonen stopped 29 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	1	0	1	2
VGK	0	0	0	0

1st 18:02BUFJ. Doan0.06 xG
3rd 19:02BUFJ. NorrisEN0.90 xG

Team Stats

BUFVGK

25Shots on goal29

3.04Expected goals3.02

48Shot attempts63

205v5 shots on goal23

0/2Power play0/3

19Hits28

14Blocked shots12

8Penalty minutes6

12Giveaways19

6Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 3.04 xGVGK 3.02 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF24 on goal, 2 scored

VGK29 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Doan	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+2	0	13:30	2:37
J. Norris	C	1	0	1	5	0	2	+2	0	13:28	2:37
P. Krebs	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	0	11:10	0:00
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	19:21	2:37
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	17:17	1:23
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:58	1:23
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	15:46	1:11
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	15:41	1:23
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:55	2:37
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	13:40	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	12:30	0:00
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	11:10	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	0	1	1	1	0	4	+1	0	22:20	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	22:51	2:07
O. Power	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	21:41	0:12
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	21:31	1:53
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	16:18	0:00
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	11:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	29	29	0	1.000	60:00	Win
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	1	0	0	-1	0	22:23	4:47
J. Eichel	C	2	0	0	-2	0	20:06	4:39
M. Stone	RW	3	1	1	-2	0	19:10	5:01
T. Hertl	C	3	5	0	-1	0	17:39	4:40
P. Dorofeyev	RW	3	0	0	-1	0	17:18	4:39
I. Barbashev	LW	1	2	0	-1	0	14:31	1:22
B. Bowman	RW	1	0	1	0	2	14:04	0:58
B. Howden	C	2	3	1	0	2	13:56	1:20
C. Sissons	C	2	2	2	0	0	13:49	0:00
N. Dowd	C	1	3	0	0	0	11:17	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	3	1	0	0	10:40	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	4	0	0	0	10:03	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	0	2	-1	0	21:15	1:21
S. Theodore	D	3	0	0	0	0	20:37	1:13
N. Hanifin	D	2	0	1	-2	0	20:23	0:00
B. McNabb	D	3	2	1	0	2	18:37	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	2	3	1	0	0	15:40	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	1	0	0	13:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	24	23	1	.958	59:29	Loss
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson15:29N. Ostlund14:35Z. Benson13:24

Line 2J. Zucker12:18J. Quinn13:53R. McLeod12:17

Line 3S. Carrick11:57B. Malenstyn10:03T. Kozak9:22

Line 4J. Norris9:21J. Doan9:37P. Krebs9:51

Pair 1O. Power19:16B. Byram16:57

Pair 2M. Samuelsson16:59R. Dahlin17:56

Pair 3L. Stanley12:17Z. Metsa11:53

VGK

Line 1M. Stone12:45J. Eichel12:31I. Barbashev13:09

Line 2B. Howden12:24B. Bowman13:06C. Sissons12:26

Line 3T. Hertl12:17P. Dorofeyev11:56M. Marner13:12

Line 4N. Dowd10:24C. Smith9:12K. Kolesar9:33

Pair 1B. McNabb17:01S. Theodore17:23

Pair 2N. Hanifin16:47R. Andersson16:19

Pair 3J. Lauzon13:57K. Korczak13:03

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.0, VGK 3.3	BUF 2, VGK 0
Total goals	6.3	2
Shots on goal	BUF 24.3, VGK 29.0	BUF 25, VGK 29
Win chance	VGK 56%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.3	2	1.11	0	32%	0
BUF T. Thompson	3.1	0	0.98	0	38%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.8	3	0.69	0	33%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.2	3	0.68	0	27%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.1	3	0.79	0	16%	0
BUF J. Doan	1.9	3	0.60	1	23%	1
BUF J. Zucker	1.9	1	0.64	0	24%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.8	1	1.01	0	27%	0
VGK R. Andersson	1.8	0	0.41	0	10%	0
VGK M. Stone	1.8	3	0.86	0	26%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.8	2	0.54	0	18%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.7	3	0.60	0	10%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.7	2	0.40	0	8%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	1	0.63	0	23%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.5	1	0.53	0	17%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.5	5	0.63	1	27%	1
BUF O. Power	1.4	0	0.40	0	7%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.4	2	0.43	0	21%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.3	2	0.29	0	12%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.3	5	0.40	0	12%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.2	3	0.26	0	5%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.2	0	0.63	0	18%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.2	1	0.45	0	10%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.1	1	0.36	1	8%	0
BUF L. Stanley	1.1	1	0.29	0	7%	0
VGK C. Smith	1.0	0	0.19	0	9%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.0	0	0.41	0	15%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	0.9	2	0.15	0	3%	0
BUF P. Krebs	0.9	0	0.34	1	10%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.9	0	0.26	0	11%	0
VGK N. Dowd	0.8	1	0.28	0	13%	0
BUF S. Carrick	0.8	0	0.19	0	8%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.7	0	0.16	0	7%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.7	0	0.20	0	3%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.6	1	0.14	0	9%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.6	2	0.13	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.