Game Recap: BUF 2, WSH 6, April 4, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

BUF2

FinalSat, Apr 4, 2026Every game that night

WSH6

WSH beat BUF 6-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.77 expected goals to 3.67. BUF outshot WSH 39 to 28. C. McMichael led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Quinn had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. L. Thompson stopped 37 of 39.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	2	0	0	2
WSH	3	1	2	6

1st 3:15WSHJ. Chychrun0.13 xG
1st 3:35WSHD. Strome0.11 xG
1st 5:52WSHC. McMichael0.32 xG
1st 6:30BUFR. Dahlin0.21 xG
1st 12:15BUFB. Malenstyn0.47 xG
2nd 6:06WSHA. Protas0.07 xG
3rd 6:26WSHR. Leonard0.03 xG
3rd 8:55WSHT. WilsonSH0.14 xG

Team Stats

BUFWSH

39Shots on goal28

3.67Expected goals2.77

60Shot attempts54

315v5 shots on goal23

0/5Power play0/2

17Hits14

8Blocked shots11

14Penalty minutes20

17Giveaways17

3Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 3.67 xGWSH 2.77 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF38 on goal, 2 scored

WSH27 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Tuch	RW	0	1	1	5	0	2	+1	0	16:20	2:36
J. Norris	C	0	1	1	4	1	1	0	0	15:48	5:15
J. Greenway	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	13:32	0:15
B. Malenstyn	LW	1	0	1	1	4	0	+1	0	12:27	0:15
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	5	1	1	-3	0	19:20	5:15
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	6	0	0	-3	0	18:27	5:30
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	18:20	4:55
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	16:53	2:41
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	12	15:20	2:59
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-3	0	12:57	2:24
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	12:15	0:15
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	12:05	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	1	1	2	3	1	0	+1	0	22:28	5:47
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-3	0	20:59	2:26
O. Power	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	20:22	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+2	2	19:54	0:22
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-3	0	15:15	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	13:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	5	2	3	.400	5:52	Loss
C. Ellis	23	20	3	.870	54:08

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	2	2	4	1	0	+1	0	17:01	2:47
A. Protas	LW	1	1	2	4	0	1	+1	0	16:15	0:00
C. McMichael	LW	1	1	2	5	1	2	+3	2	16:03	0:55
P. Dubois	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+2	0	12:58	1:52
T. Wilson	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+2	0	17:19	1:56
D. Strome	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	+2	2	16:38	0:53
J. Sourdif	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	15:25	0:51
R. Leonard	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	2	12:55	1:52
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:44	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:43	0:00
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:05	0:00
E. Frank	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	9:34	0:00
J. Chychrun	D	1	1	2	2	1	0	+1	0	19:40	1:54
C. Hutson	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	2	18:58	0:55
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+2	10	21:10	0:00
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	+2	0	20:56	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	20:25	0:00
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	2	16:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	39	37	2	.949	60:00	Win
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1R. McLeod12:36J. Quinn12:42Z. Benson12:21

Line 2J. Greenway11:06T. Kozak11:42B. Malenstyn11:35

Line 3P. Krebs12:05J. Doan9:35T. Thompson14:05

Line 4J. Zucker13:25J. Norris10:18A. Tuch11:52

Pair 1L. Stanley12:42Z. Metsa13:05

Pair 2M. Samuelsson18:30R. Dahlin16:26

Pair 3O. Power18:47B. Byram16:13

WSH

Line 1A. Ovechkin14:14D. Strome14:36A. Protas12:31

Line 2T. Wilson11:18C. McMichael12:05P. Dubois11:06

Line 3J. Sourdif14:16R. Leonard11:03A. Beauvillier11:11

Line 4H. Lapierre11:02E. Frank9:34B. Duhaime10:28

Pair 1M. Roy16:02C. Hutson17:05

Pair 2R. Sandin16:34M. Fehérváry15:17

Pair 3T. Riemsdyk13:56J. Chychrun16:47

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAlex Tuch WSH Faces BUF, his team until May 20261 A, 5 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.3, WSH 3.4	BUF 2, WSH 6
Total goals	6.7	8
Shots on goal	BUF 28.0, WSH 28.4	BUF 39, WSH 28
Win chance	WSH 51%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.2	5	0.96	0	38%	0
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.0	4	0.87	2	37%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.4	2	0.62	2	19%	1
BUF A. Tuch	2.4	5	0.76	1	29%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.3	3	0.82	2	19%	1
WSH T. Wilson	2.2	1	0.81	1	32%	1
BUF J. Quinn	2.2	6	0.61	0	20%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	2.1	1	0.41	0	19%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.0	1	0.62	0	24%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.9	5	0.60	2	22%	1
WSH R. Leonard	1.9	2	0.49	1	18%	1
WSH A. Protas	1.9	4	0.64	2	23%	1
BUF J. Doan	1.8	1	0.48	0	20%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.8	1	0.70	2	24%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.7	4	0.75	1	25%	1
WSH J. Sourdif	1.7	0	0.53	1	21%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.6	4	0.59	1	25%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.5	3	0.44	0	13%	0
WSH C. Hutson	1.4	2	0.35	1	5%	0
BUF O. Power	1.4	2	0.35	0	8%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.2	0	0.43	0	11%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.2	1	0.37	0	6%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.2	2	0.37	0	9%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.2	0	0.60	0	17%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.2	1	0.27	0	5%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.1	2	0.41	0	11%	0
WSH E. Frank	1.1	0	0.28	0	13%	0
BUF L. Stanley	1.0	3	0.21	0	5%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.9	0	0.19	0	10%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.9	0	0.28	0	7%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	1	0.17	1	7%	1
BUF J. Greenway	0.9	1	0.19	1	8%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.9	0	0.31	0	9%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.8	0	0.23	0	3%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.8	0	0.18	0	5%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.6	0	0.13	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.