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Game Recap
BUF3
Final/OTSat, Oct 24, 2026Every game that night
WSH4

WSH beat BUF 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.00 expected goals to 2.28. WSH outshot BUF 34 to 21. D. Strome led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). D. Strome had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. C. Lindgren stopped 18 of 21.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
BUF20103
WSH12014
  1. 1st 6:27BUFJ. Quinn0.14 xG
  2. 1st 10:36BUFJ. Doan0.08 xG
  3. 1st 16:10WSHA. Tuch0.02 xG
  4. 2nd 2:59WSHD. Strome0.38 xG
  5. 2nd 17:24WSHD. Strome0.18 xG
  6. 3rd 2:20BUFN. Ostlund0.07 xG
  7. OT 3:42WSHA. Tuch0.20 xG

Team Stats

BUFWSH
21Shots on goal34
2.28Expected goals4.00
55Shot attempts58
165v5 shots on goal23
0/2Power play0/3
15Hits26
9Blocked shots21
6Penalty minutes4
23Giveaways15
8Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 2.28 xGWSH 4.00 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdOTBUF goal, 6:27BUF goal, 10:36WSH goal, 16:10WSH goal, 2:59WSH goal, 17:24BUF goal, 2:20WSH goal, 3:42

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF21 on goal, 3 scored
WSH34 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
Z. BensonLW011200+1018:322:37
J. QuinnRW101300-1017:242:34
R. McLeodC011100+1017:151:39
N. OstlundC101101-1016:252:21
J. DoanRW101100+1012:401:27
J. NorrisC000101-1017:061:38
T. ThompsonC000000-1017:002:20
B. MalenstynLW0000300015:130:00
P. KrebsC0000400014:210:00
J. ZuckerLW000020-1013:521:21
T. KozakC0001200013:170:00
K. HeleniusC000101+1212:100:00
O. PowerD0112010030:090:54
R. DahlinD011311+1027:203:07
O. ZellwegerD011201+1221:060:00
M. SamuelssonD0001030225:270:02
D. GilbertD000020-208:120:00
L. CrevierD000210-207:370:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
U. Luukkonen34304.88263:42OT loss
C. Ellis000–0:00

WSH Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
D. StromeC213501+3020:593:18
A. TuchRW202321+1222:322:46
J. KyrouRW022300+1016:513:08
J. SourdifC0112110015:260:00
T. WilsonRW0003410219:133:14
P. DuboisC0002110018:082:51
A. ProtasLW000410+1016:480:00
R. LeonardRW0003100015:102:39
B. JennerC000110-1015:040:00
A. OvechkinLW0001100011:433:51
I. ProtasLW000103-109:252:12
A. BeauvillierRW000030-107:410:00
J. ChychrunD0224050025:013:21
M. FehérváryD0112320023:190:00
M. RoyD000021-1024:040:00
C. HutsonD000040+1022:322:40
T. LiljegrenD0000130015:560:00
D. McIlrathD000012007:140:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Lindgren21183.85763:42Win
M. Gibson000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1J. Quinn13:11N. Ostlund12:32Z. Benson12:40
Line 2P. Krebs14:21T. Kozak12:43B. Malenstyn12:03
Line 3T. Thompson13:06J. Norris12:02J. Zucker12:31
Line 4R. McLeod11:48K. Helenius12:10J. Doan10:49
Pair 1M. Samuelsson22:13R. Dahlin22:03
Pair 2O. Zellweger19:11O. Power22:39
Pair 3D. Gilbert7:17L. Crevier6:41

WSH

Line 1A. Tuch16:11D. Strome15:30J. Kyrou13:43
Line 2T. Wilson14:39P. Dubois14:31A. Protas14:52
Line 3B. Jenner12:42J. Sourdif13:08R. Leonard11:40
Line 4A. Beauvillier7:41I. Protas7:13A. Ovechkin7:52
Pair 1M. Roy21:18J. Chychrun17:54
Pair 2C. Hutson18:51M. Fehérváry20:25
Pair 3D. McIlrath7:14T. Liljegren14:36

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

12 of 21 overs hit (57%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
BUF T. Thompson3.5+125-1300Under
WSH A. Ovechkin2.5+108-1301Under
WSH A. Tuch2.5+120-1253Over
WSH J. Chychrun2.5-110-1144Over
WSH J. Kyrou2.5+132-1503Over
BUF J. Quinn2.5+102-1203Over
BUF R. Dahlin2.5+100-1153Over
BUF Z. Benson2.5+160-1802Under
WSH A. Protas1.5+100-1154Over
WSH C. Hutson1.5-125+1100Under
WSH D. Strome1.5-135+1055Over
BUF J. Doan1.5-130+1051Under
BUF J. Norris1.5+135-1551Under
BUF J. Zucker1.5-120-1050Under
BUF M. Samuelsson1.5+100-1301Under
BUF N. Ostlund1.5+105-1301Under
BUF O. Power1.5-105-1252Over
BUF O. Zellweger1.5-120-1052Over
WSH P. Dubois1.5+100-1202Over
WSH R. Leonard1.5-160+1303Over
WSH T. Wilson1.5-155+1353Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamAlex Tuch WSH Faces BUF, his team until May 20262 G, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreBUF 3.3, WSH 3.2BUF 3, WSH 4
Total goals6.47
Shots on goalBUF 27.9, WSH 26.7BUF 21, WSH 34
Win chanceBUF 51%WSH won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
BUF T. Thompson3.401.01038%0
BUF J. Quinn2.730.79126%1
WSH J. Chychrun2.540.65218%0
BUF R. Dahlin2.530.78118%0
WSH A. Ovechkin2.510.74031%0
WSH A. Tuch2.430.79232%2
BUF Z. Benson2.320.79124%0
BUF J. Zucker2.100.61024%0
WSH R. Leonard2.130.59022%0
WSH J. Kyrou2.030.64226%0
WSH T. Wilson2.030.77030%0
WSH B. Jenner1.910.50022%0
WSH D. Strome1.850.80326%2
BUF O. Zellweger1.720.31110%0
BUF N. Ostlund1.710.70124%1
BUF J. Norris1.710.59025%0
WSH A. Protas1.740.61022%0
BUF J. Doan1.610.45118%1
WSH P. Dubois1.620.71023%0
BUF O. Power1.520.56112%0
BUF K. Helenius1.510.33013%0
WSH A. Beauvillier1.500.33015%0
WSH C. Hutson1.400.3606%0
BUF M. Samuelsson1.310.44011%0
WSH J. Sourdif1.220.41117%0
WSH I. Protas1.210.48014%0
WSH M. Roy1.000.2604%0
BUF R. McLeod1.010.47115%0
WSH T. Liljegren1.000.2505%0
BUF L. Crevier1.020.1905%0
WSH M. Fehérváry0.820.3517%0
BUF P. Krebs0.800.33010%0
BUF B. Malenstyn0.700.1707%0
BUF T. Kozak0.610.1607%0
BUF D. Gilbert0.400.1703%0
WSH D. McIlrath0.300.0601%0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.