Game Recap: CAR 4, PHI 1, November 20, 2024

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Game Recap

CAR4

FinalWed, Nov 20, 2024Every game that night

PHI1

CAR beat PHI 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.22 expected goals to 1.54. CAR outshot PHI 37 to 19. S. Aho led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Orlov had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. P. Kochetkov stopped 18 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	1	0	3	4
PHI	0	1	0	1

1st 0:30CARJ. Chatfield0.02 xG
2nd 2:13PHIR. Poehling0.03 xG
3rd 1:03CARS. Aho0.15 xG
3rd 6:02CARJ. Staal0.09 xG
3rd 6:57CARJ. Roslovic0.34 xG

Team Stats

CARPHI

37Shots on goal19

3.22Expected goals1.54

83Shot attempts37

365v5 shots on goal12

0/1Power play0/3

12Hits20

9Blocked shots20

6Penalty minutes2

17Giveaways25

7Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 3.22 xGPHI 1.54 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR37 on goal, 4 scored

PHI18 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	+2	2	15:57	1:12
J. Martinook	LW	0	1	1	3	1	2	+3	0	14:12	0:00
J. Staal	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+2	0	14:10	0:00
J. Roslovic	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	0	12:33	0:10
W. Carrier	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+2	0	11:37	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	16:58	0:00
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	-1	0	16:41	1:09
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:28	1:08
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	2	15:39	0:06
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	15:25	0:05
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	2	13:22	1:13
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	12:09	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	20:30	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	4	0	0	+2	0	20:17	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+2	0	21:21	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	+2	0	21:03	0:09
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	18:02	1:03
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	17:36	0:15

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Kochetkov	19	18	1	.947	60:00	Win
S. Martin	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Poehling	C	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	15:21	0:02
N. Cates	LW	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	14:56	0:00
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	20:20	3:10
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	20:16	2:32
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	18:58	3:37
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	17:56	2:10
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:20	2:51
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	15:57	3:10
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	12:06	0:00
A. Richard	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	11:10	1:35
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	10:17	1:31
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	8:25	0:22
N. Seeler	D	0	1	1	1	1	3	-1	0	17:41	0:06
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-1	0	24:40	3:35
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-2	0	20:34	1:37
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	19:15	0:08
E. Johnson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:59	0:04
H. Grans	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	15:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Fedotov	37	33	4	.892	59:57	Loss
A. Kolosov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSean Walker CAR Faces PHI, his team until Mar 20242 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.5, PHI 2.6	CAR 4, PHI 1
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	CAR 30.6, PHI 27.1	CAR 37, PHI 19
Win chance	CAR 64%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI O. Tippett	2.9	1	0.55	0	23%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.9	1	0.89	0	32%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.7	1	0.91	0	29%	0
CAR M. Necas	2.5	4	0.88	0	27%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.3	3	1.00	2	33%	1
PHI S. Couturier	2.3	1	0.48	0	16%	0
CAR B. Burns	1.9	3	0.54	0	11%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.8	3	0.46	0	11%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.8	2	0.44	0	20%	0
CAR J. Roslovic	1.7	2	0.55	1	19%	1
PHI J. Farabee	1.7	1	0.43	0	17%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.7	0	0.46	0	16%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.6	3	0.46	1	17%	0
PHI M. Michkov	1.6	2	0.62	0	19%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.6	1	0.34	0	18%	0
PHI S. Laughton	1.6	1	0.40	0	14%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.6	3	0.65	0	13%	0
CAR J. Drury	1.5	2	0.40	0	12%	0
CAR D. Orlov	1.4	4	0.45	1	10%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.4	2	0.26	0	7%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.4	0	0.43	0	7%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.4	1	0.32	1	16%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.4	3	0.39	1	15%	1
PHI B. Brink	1.3	1	0.35	0	13%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.2	0	0.38	0	14%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.2	2	0.30	2	8%	1
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.2	2	0.21	0	4%	0
PHI R. Poehling	1.1	1	0.31	1	12%	1
PHI G. Hathaway	1.1	0	0.24	0	11%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.1	1	0.18	1	3%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.0	0	0.29	1	11%	0
PHI A. Richard	1.0	2	0.43	0	15%	0
CAR T. Jost	0.9	2	0.22	0	8%	0
PHI E. Johnson	0.7	0	0.11	0	4%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.6	0	0.23	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.