Game Recap: CAR 5, PHI 0, March 15, 2025

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Game Recap

CAR5

FinalSat, Mar 15, 2025Every game that night

PHI0

CAR beat PHI 5-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.57 expected goals to 1.96. M. Jankowski led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). P. Kochetkov stopped 26 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	2	2	1	5
PHI	0	0	0	0

1st 8:21CARS. Aho0.17 xG
1st 15:46CARM. Jankowski0.25 xG
2nd 0:19CART. HallPP0.24 xG
2nd 13:15CARM. Jankowski0.20 xG
3rd 19:28CARS. Morrow0.22 xG

Team Stats

CARPHI

30Shots on goal26

3.57Expected goals1.96

81Shot attempts50

245v5 shots on goal20

1/4Power play0/2

9Hits26

15Blocked shots31

4Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways21

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 3.57 xGPHI 1.96 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR30 on goal, 5 scored

PHI24 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	0	18:54	4:28
T. Hall	LW	1	1	2	3	0	1	+1	0	15:20	4:05
E. Robinson	LW	0	2	2	2	0	0	+2	0	14:51	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	2	0	2	2	0	0	+2	2	10:43	0:00
S. Jarvis	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	18:18	4:31
J. Blake	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	2	17:22	3:57
L. Stankoven	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+2	0	15:48	2:12
T. Jost	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	11:18	0:00
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	16:01	1:41
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:27	0:00
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	14:15	0:00
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:48	1:38
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	2	2	1	0	4	+3	0	18:53	3:37
S. Morrow	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	0	16:14	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	3	2	4	+1	0	21:45	2:04
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	21:15	2:32
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	19:02	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	18:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Kochetkov	26	26	0	1.000	60:00	Win
F. Andersen	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Couturier	C	1	1	2	0	0	19:17	3:06
T. Konecny	RW	3	1	0	-2	0	18:19	3:05
T. Foerster	RW	1	5	2	-2	0	18:19	0:54
M. Michkov	RW	1	2	0	0	2	17:47	3:05
N. Cates	LW	2	1	2	-2	2	16:35	0:55
B. Brink	RW	3	1	1	0	0	14:46	3:06
R. Poehling	C	1	0	3	0	2	14:25	0:00
O. Tippett	RW	4	1	5	0	0	14:24	0:00
O. Lycksell	RW	0	0	0	0	0	13:04	0:54
R. Abols	C	1	2	0	-2	0	10:27	0:00
N. Deslauriers	LW	2	0	0	-2	0	10:01	0:00
J. Pelletier	LW	1	1	0	-2	0	9:27	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	1	1	-1	0	23:52	3:37
T. Sanheim	D	0	1	1	-1	0	23:16	0:55
C. York	D	0	1	5	-2	0	22:02	0:00
N. Seeler	D	3	6	6	0	0	18:35	0:00
E. Andrae	D	2	2	1	-2	0	15:25	0:23
E. Zamula	D	1	0	2	-2	0	13:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	30	25	5	.833	60:00	Loss
I. Fedotov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSean Walker CAR Faces PHI, his team until Mar 20243 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.1, PHI 2.6	CAR 5, PHI 0
Total goals	5.7	5
Shots on goal	CAR 27.6, PHI 25.5	CAR 30, PHI 26
Win chance	CAR 57%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI M. Michkov	2.5	1	0.70	0	24%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.4	4	0.55	0	25%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.4	3	0.90	0	31%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.3	2	0.95	2	33%	1
CAR S. Jarvis	2.3	2	0.81	1	31%	0
CAR B. Burns	2.1	0	0.49	0	12%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.9	1	0.50	0	16%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.9	1	0.52	0	25%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	1.8	3	0.41	1	15%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.8	1	0.39	1	17%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.7	3	0.52	2	20%	1
PHI N. Cates	1.7	2	0.48	0	19%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.6	3	0.27	0	7%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.5	1	0.43	0	9%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.4	1	0.58	2	11%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.4	3	0.49	0	17%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.4	0	0.36	0	8%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.4	0	0.42	0	16%	0
CAR J. Roslovic	1.3	2	0.45	0	17%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.3	1	0.41	0	15%	0
CAR S. Morrow	1.3	2	0.25	1	4%	1
CAR J. Martinook	1.2	2	0.39	0	14%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.2	3	0.28	0	9%	0
PHI R. Poehling	1.1	1	0.33	0	13%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.1	2	0.29	2	12%	0
PHI O. Lycksell	1.1	0	0.28	0	8%	0
PHI C. York	1.0	0	0.27	0	7%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.0	0	0.28	0	6%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.0	3	0.18	0	3%	0
PHI E. Andrae	0.9	2	0.17	0	4%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	0.9	2	0.25	2	12%	2
PHI R. Abols	0.8	1	0.21	0	10%	0
PHI J. Pelletier	0.8	1	0.22	0	8%	0
CAR T. Jost	0.8	0	0.16	1	7%	0
PHI N. Deslauriers	0.6	2	0.09	0	5%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.6	1	0.24	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.