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Game Recap
CAR4
UTA1
CAR beat UTA 4-1, with the chances close: 4.00 expected goals to 3.36. J. Staal led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). K. Yamamoto had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. F. Andersen stopped 26 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| UTA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 1st 4:25CARA. SvechnikovPP0.25 xG
- 1st 13:23CARJ. Staal0.11 xG
- 3rd 2:42UTAD. GuentherPP0.13 xG
- 3rd 15:31CARS. Aho0.11 xG
- 3rd 19:37CARS. WalkerEN0.95 xG
Team Stats
CARUTA
29Shots on goal27
4.00Expected goals3.36
60Shot attempts67
195v5 shots on goal17
1/3Power play1/5
17Hits24
18Blocked shots16
15Penalty minutes11
10Giveaways18
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 4.00 xGUTA 3.36 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Staal | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:06 | 1:42 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:48 | 0:00 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:59 | 3:12 |
| S. Aho | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 18:33 | 3:52 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:37 | 3:52 |
| S. Jarvis | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:28 | 3:52 |
| S. Brind'Amour | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:04 | 0:00 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:40 | 0:04 |
| B. Nadeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:20 | 1:06 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:52 | 1:06 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:08 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:10 | 3:52 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +2 | 0 | 26:54 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 25:00 | 1:06 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:28 | 1:06 |
| C. Legault | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 12:17 | 0:00 |
| M. Reilly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:31 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 27 | 26 | 1 | .963 | 60:00 | Win |
| B. Bussi | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:08 | 6:22 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:47 | 5:48 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 23:11 | 6:14 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 22:03 | 6:08 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:06 | 2:30 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:36 | 2:27 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:43 | 2:15 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:12 | 0:03 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:47 | 2:53 |
| K. Yamamoto | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:21 | 0:00 |
| L. O'Brien | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:46 | 0:00 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:26 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 25:32 | 6:17 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 18:54 | 2:24 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:37 | 0:00 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:34 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 15:40 | 0:00 |
| D. Simashev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 13:20 | 0:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 28 | 25 | 3 | .893 | 57:19 | Loss |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CAR
Line 1S. Brind'Amour13:14J. Slavin12:33B. Nadeau11:14
Line 2J. Staal11:12J. Martinook12:23N. Ehlers10:52
Line 3S. Aho10:24A. Svechnikov11:12S. Jarvis10:42
Line 4E. Robinson11:38J. Kotkaniemi8:45N. Deslauriers6:08
Pair 1S. Gostisbehere16:18J. Slavin18:02
Pair 2S. Walker15:44A. Nikishin17:09
Pair 3M. Reilly9:54C. Legault10:01
UTA
Line 1L. Cooley14:01D. Guenther12:04K. Yamamoto11:21
Line 2N. Schmaltz12:16C. Keller12:51L. Crouse11:33
Line 3A. Kerfoot10:00M. Carcone9:50J. Peterka10:51
Line 4L. O'Brien8:46K. Stenlund8:56B. Tanev8:26
Pair 1M. Weegar15:15M. Sergachev14:39
Pair 3N. Schmidt13:31D. Simashev13:05
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.4, UTA 3.0 | CAR 4, UTA 1 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 29.8, UTA 23.8 | CAR 29, UTA 27 |
| Win chance | CAR 55% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.6 | 4 | 0.87 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.4 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.4 | 0 | 1.00 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.2 | 2 | 0.74 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.1 | 5 | 0.79 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.1 | 3 | 0.84 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 2.0 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.0 | 5 | 0.67 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.7 | 2 | 0.55 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 1.7 | 2 | 0.77 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.6 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.6 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.6 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA J. Peterka | 1.6 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.5 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR B. Nadeau | 1.5 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.4 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA M. Weegar | 1.4 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.4 | 4 | 0.42 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| CAR M. Reilly | 1.3 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.3 | 0 | 0.37 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR C. Legault | 1.1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.0 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA K. Yamamoto | 0.9 | 4 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 0.9 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA L. O'Brien | 0.8 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 0.8 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmidt | 0.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CAR N. Deslauriers | 0.7 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA D. Simashev | 0.7 | 2 | 0.08 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| UTA B. Tanev | 0.6 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.6 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.