BUF beat CBJ 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.50 expected goals to 1.58. CBJ outshot BUF 29 to 21. A. Tuch led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). Z. Aston-Reese had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Reimer stopped 27 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| BUF | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 10:07BUFB. Byram0.12 xG
- 2nd 1:47CBJK. Johnson0.04 xG
- 2nd 12:17BUFA. Tuch0.06 xG
- 2nd 18:56BUFA. Tuch0.06 xG
- 3rd 12:38CBJI. Provorov0.11 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 1.58 xGBUF 2.50 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Johnson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:48 | 1:29 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:41 | 0:26 |
| L. Del Bel Belluz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:38 | 0:24 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:25 | 1:36 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:13 | 1:34 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:43 | 1:34 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 13:12 | 0:26 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:02 | 0:00 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:59 | 0:00 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:01 | 0:00 |
| M. Pyyhtia | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:39 | 0:00 |
| K. Labanc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:50 | 0:00 |
| I. Provorov | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 28:27 | 1:40 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:29 | 0:31 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 19:50 | 0:20 |
| J. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:34 | 0:00 |
| J. Harris | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:24 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 21 | 18 | 3 | .857 | 57:26 | Loss |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Tuch | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:15 | 1:15 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 16:52 | 1:15 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:25 | 1:15 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:31 | 0:42 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:26 | 0:00 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:26 | 0:45 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:22 | 1:15 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:15 | 0:45 |
| I. Rosen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:46 | 0:45 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:58 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:27 | 0:03 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 23:36 | 1:15 |
| D. Gilbert | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 5 | 8:41 | 0:00 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:04 | 0:45 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:30 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:00 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Reimer | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 60:00 | Win |
| F. Sandstrom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 2.9, BUF 3.3 | CBJ 2, BUF 3 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 28.0, BUF 30.9 | CBJ 29, BUF 21 |
| Win chance | BUF 56% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.7 | 1 | 0.76 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.6 | 3 | 0.70 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.6 | 2 | 0.78 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.6 | 5 | 0.90 | 3 | 32% | 2 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.6 | 0 | 0.69 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.5 | 2 | 0.72 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.4 | 0 | 0.76 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 2.4 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 2.2 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.9 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.8 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.8 | 4 | 0.64 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.5 | 0 | 0.47 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.4 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.4 | 1 | 0.49 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| CBJ L. Belluz | 1.4 | 0 | 0.52 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.3 | 5 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.3 | 3 | 0.41 | 2 | 8% | 1 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.2 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.1 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Labanc | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF I. Rosen | 0.9 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.9 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Pyyhtia | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Johnson | 0.6 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.4 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Harris | 0.4 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF D. Gilbert | 0.4 | 0 | 0.13 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.