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Game Recap
CBJ3
DAL5
DAL beat CBJ 5-3, with the chances close: 3.87 expected goals to 4.05. DAL outshot CBJ 39 to 30. E. Dadonov led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). W. Johnston had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. C. DeSmith stopped 27 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| DAL | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
- 1st 6:43CBJC. Sillinger0.36 xG
- 1st 13:36DALM. Marchment0.09 xG
- 2nd 4:58CBJD. Voronkov0.48 xG
- 2nd 6:03DALL. Stankoven0.16 xG
- 2nd 12:02CBJI. Provorov0.06 xG
- 2nd 15:49DALW. JohnstonPP0.20 xG
- 3rd 11:22DALE. Dadonov0.10 xG
- 3rd 15:47DALE. Dadonov0.05 xG
Team Stats
CBJDAL
30Shots on goal39
4.05Expected goals3.87
64Shot attempts70
235v5 shots on goal28
0/3Power play1/3
31Hits22
17Blocked shots15
6Penalty minutes6
15Giveaways17
3Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 4.05 xGDAL 3.87 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:42 | 4:29 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:31 | 4:35 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:16 | 4:29 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:03 | 4:29 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:48 | 3:05 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:16 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:19 | 0:52 |
| M. Pyyhtia | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:35 | 0:05 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:55 | 0:38 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:00 |
| L. Del Bel Belluz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:36 | 1:19 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:12 |
| I. Provorov | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 29:30 | 2:06 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 25:09 | 3:54 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:32 | 1:31 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 19:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:00 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 8:13 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 39 | 34 | 5 | .872 | 57:00 | Loss |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:01 | 2:23 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:00 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:40 | 1:51 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:23 | 2:23 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:52 | 1:51 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:11 | 1:57 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:18 | 1:51 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:00 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:02 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:00 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:06 | 2:09 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 | 2:23 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:47 | 4:03 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:22 | 0:00 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 23:51 | 0:11 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:16 | 0:08 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14:15 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. DeSmith | 30 | 27 | 3 | .900 | 59:02 | Win |
| J. Oettinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 2.5, DAL 3.3 | CBJ 3, DAL 5 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 25.9, DAL 31.1 | CBJ 30, DAL 39 |
| Win chance | DAL 64% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.5 | 3 | 0.75 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.8 | 3 | 1.07 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.7 | 8 | 0.91 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.5 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 2.4 | 3 | 0.52 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.3 | 5 | 0.58 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 2.2 | 2 | 0.53 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.2 | 1 | 0.85 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| DAL M. Granlund | 2.1 | 2 | 0.84 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.1 | 6 | 0.59 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| DAL J. Benn | 2.0 | 2 | 0.78 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 2.0 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 2.0 | 3 | 0.92 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 1.9 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.8 | 4 | 0.60 | 2 | 22% | 2 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.6 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.5 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.4 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.4 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.4 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL C. Ceci | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ L. Belluz | 1.2 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.1 | 4 | 0.28 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 0.9 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.8 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Pyyhtia | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.7 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.7 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.