Game Recap: CBJ 0, FLA 3, March 6, 2025

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Game Recap

CBJ0

FinalThu, Mar 6, 2025Every game that night

FLA3

FLA beat CBJ 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 4.76 expected goals to 1.11. FLA outshot CBJ 36 to 16. S. Reinhart led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Samoskevich had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. S. Bobrovsky stopped 16 of 16.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	0	0	0	0
FLA	1	1	1	3

1st 5:58FLAS. ReinhartPP0.17 xG
2nd 6:34FLAM. SamoskevichPP0.17 xG
3rd 17:48FLAA. BarkovEN0.77 xG

Team Stats

CBJFLA

16Shots on goal36

1.11Expected goals4.76

40Shot attempts68

135v5 shots on goal20

0/4Power play2/5

24Hits29

15Blocked shots8

18Penalty minutes18

7Giveaways11

2Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 1.11 xGFLA 4.76 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ15 on goal, 0 scored

FLA35 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Marchenko	RW	2	1	0	-1	0	20:21	4:44
A. Fantilli	C	1	1	0	-1	0	19:27	4:46
D. Voronkov	LW	1	2	0	-1	0	18:40	4:21
B. Jenner	C	0	5	1	0	0	18:39	3:30
K. Johnson	C	1	0	0	0	0	18:38	5:11
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	2	1	0	0	2	14:57	3:05
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	1	2	0	0	13:39	0:00
J. Danforth	RW	0	3	0	0	0	13:30	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	1	1	0	0	0	12:22	0:00
E. Chinakhov	RW	1	1	0	-1	0	10:48	2:39
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	-1	5	10:34	0:01
J. LaBate	C	1	1	0	0	5	6:15	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	2	1	3	-1	0	28:49	5:04
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	2	0	0	22:58	0:00
I. Provorov	D	1	2	2	0	0	22:01	3:10
D. Mateychuk	D	1	0	0	0	6	15:54	2:44
D. Severson	D	1	1	4	0	0	13:32	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	1	3	1	0	0	11:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	35	33	2	.943	59:51	Loss
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Reinhart	C	1	2	3	3	1	1	+1	0	20:54	6:02
A. Barkov	C	1	2	3	2	4	1	+1	0	19:28	5:58
S. Bennett	C	0	1	1	5	1	0	+1	2	20:01	6:06
M. Samoskevich	RW	1	0	1	7	6	0	0	0	17:32	6:06
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	17:24	1:54
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	17:14	1:50
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	16:37	0:53
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:46	0:26
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	12:49	1:43
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:36	0:00
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	7:48	0:00
J. Gadjovich	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12	5:29	0:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	23:57	6:01
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	20:27	0:27
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	20:11	0:01
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	18:24	1:50
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:51	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	14:41	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	16	16	0	1.000	59:51	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 2.6, FLA 3.7	CBJ 0, FLA 3
Total goals	6.3	3
Shots on goal	CBJ 25.2, FLA 35.0	CBJ 16, FLA 36
Win chance	FLA 67%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.3	2	0.85	0	17%	0
FLA S. Bennett	3.2	5	0.71	1	29%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	3.1	5	0.88	0	35%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	3.0	3	1.09	3	44%	1
FLA A. Barkov	2.5	2	1.15	3	32%	1
FLA G. Forsling	2.5	0	0.46	0	13%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.3	2	0.66	0	27%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.3	1	0.58	0	23%	0
FLA S. Jones	2.2	1	0.55	0	12%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.2	3	0.51	0	20%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.2	0	0.52	0	24%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	2.1	1	0.55	1	11%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.0	1	0.56	0	24%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.0	7	0.46	1	19%	1
FLA A. Lundell	2.0	2	0.64	0	20%	0
CBJ E. Chinakhov	1.9	1	0.41	0	18%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.7	1	0.57	0	21%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.5	0	0.27	0	5%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.3	0	0.26	0	5%	0
CBJ J. Danforth	1.3	0	0.31	0	14%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.3	2	0.39	0	15%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.3	0	0.22	0	11%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.3	0	0.28	0	13%	0
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.2	2	0.38	0	15%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.2	1	0.40	0	18%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.2	1	0.35	0	7%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.0	1	0.22	0	11%	0
FLA N. Schmidt	1.0	1	0.26	0	6%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.0	1	0.20	0	7%	0
CBJ D. Severson	0.9	1	0.26	0	6%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	0.9	1	0.21	0	4%	0
FLA A. Greer	0.9	1	0.23	0	9%	0
FLA J. Gadjovich	0.9	0	0.14	0	8%	0
FLA T. Nosek	0.8	0	0.21	0	6%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.8	1	0.12	0	2%	0
CBJ J. LaBate	0.7	1	0.21	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.