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Game Recap
CBJ3
NJD5
NJD beat CBJ 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.37 expected goals to 1.51. NJD outshot CBJ 28 to 20. J. Bratt led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). T. Meier had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. J. Markstrom stopped 17 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| NJD | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 6:37NJDN. HischierPP0.09 xG
- 1st 10:49NJDP. Cotter0.04 xG
- 1st 18:51NJDJ. Bratt0.15 xG
- 2nd 3:30CBJM. Olivier0.05 xG
- 2nd 7:16CBJK. Marchenko0.06 xG
- 2nd 16:49NJDT. Meier0.05 xG
- 3rd 0:26NJDL. Hughes0.02 xG
- 3rd 10:29CBJM. Olivier0.11 xG
Team Stats
CBJNJD
20Shots on goal28
1.51Expected goals3.37
50Shot attempts54
175v5 shots on goal24
0/3Power play1/5
27Hits16
14Blocked shots13
10Penalty minutes6
9Giveaways9
2Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 1.51 xGNJD 3.37 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Olivier | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:55 | 0:00 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:39 | 3:22 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:36 | 3:29 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:22 | 3:14 |
| B. Jenner | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:07 | 1:50 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:08 | 3:25 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:43 | 0:00 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:50 | 0:00 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:35 | 1:58 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:40 | 1:47 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:11 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 28:47 | 3:16 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:08 | 1:43 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:39 | 1:55 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 19:14 | 0:00 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:43 | 0:01 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 28 | 23 | 5 | .821 | 59:09 | Loss |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Bratt | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:23 | 3:29 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:32 | 1:53 |
| N. Hischier | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:40 | 3:29 |
| T. Meier | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:39 | 3:54 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:15 | 0:40 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 10:26 | 0:11 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:40 | 3:36 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:13 | 0:58 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:27 | 1:11 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:17 | 1:05 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:54 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:59 | 0:53 |
| L. Hughes | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:30 | 3:45 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:35 | 0:00 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:34 | 1:34 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:26 | 1:38 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 20:12 | 1:05 |
| D. Cholowski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:08 | 0:50 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 20 | 17 | 3 | .850 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 2.8, NJD 3.3 | CBJ 3, NJD 5 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 25.5, NJD 30.8 | CBJ 20, NJD 28 |
| Win chance | NJD 59% | NJD won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.2 | 3 | 0.87 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 3.1 | 6 | 0.77 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.6 | 5 | 0.93 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.4 | 1 | 1.01 | 3 | 28% | 1 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.3 | 2 | 0.66 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.2 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 2.1 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 2.1 | 2 | 0.52 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 1.9 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.9 | 2 | 0.63 | 2 | 10% | 1 |
| NJD C. Glass | 1.8 | 0 | 0.41 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.8 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Chinakhov | 1.7 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.7 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.58 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.6 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.4 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ L. Kunin | 1.4 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.3 | 3 | 0.30 | 2 | 14% | 2 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.3 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NJD N. Bastian | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD C. Lazar | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dumoulin | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.8 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.8 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NJD D. Cholowski | 0.6 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.