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Game Recap
CBJ0
NYR1
NYR beat CBJ 1-0 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.30 expected goals to 2.43. I. Shesterkin stopped 27 of 27.
Team Stats
CBJNYR
27Shots on goal26
2.43Expected goals2.30
52Shot attempts58
195v5 shots on goal21
0/2Power play0/1
9Hits18
16Blocked shots12
2Penalty minutes4
15Giveaways19
9Takeaways10
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 2.43 xGNYR 2.30 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:02 | 1:55 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:59 | 1:37 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:57 | 1:37 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:14 | 2:23 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:08 | 1:57 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:14 | 2:18 |
| L. Del Bel Belluz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:02 | 2:05 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:00 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:22 | 0:05 |
| M. Pyyhtia | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:02 | 0:00 |
| K. Labanc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:57 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 28:51 | 1:38 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:13 | 2:03 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:42 | 0:00 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:50 | 2:22 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tarasov | 26 | 26 | 0 | 1.000 | 64:43 | OT loss |
| E. Merzlikins | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:46 | 2:00 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20:40 | 2:00 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:04 | 1:54 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:54 | 0:05 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:10 | 0:00 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:55 | 0:00 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:48 | 1:55 |
| F. Chytil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:00 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:00 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:54 | 0:00 |
| A. Kaliyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:40 | 0:00 |
| M. Rempe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:51 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:54 | 1:54 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:16 | 0:06 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:46 | 0:00 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:46 | 0:00 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:58 | 0:06 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:35 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 27 | 27 | 0 | 1.000 | 65:00 | Win |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 3.0, NYR 3.5 | CBJ 0, NYR 1 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 1 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 30.8, NYR 31.6 | CBJ 27, NYR 26 |
| Win chance | NYR 59% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.5 | 1 | 0.89 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 3.1 | 3 | 1.33 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.9 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.8 | 1 | 0.98 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.8 | 0 | 0.77 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.6 | 1 | 0.78 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.4 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.4 | 3 | 0.90 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 2.4 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.1 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NYR F. Chytil | 2.0 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.9 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.9 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.9 | 2 | 0.90 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.8 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYR A. Kaliyev | 1.6 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.5 | 4 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.4 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.4 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ L. Belluz | 1.2 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.1 | 3 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Labanc | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR R. Lindgren | 0.9 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Pyyhtia | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.9 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR U. Vaakanainen | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.8 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 0.5 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.