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Game Recap
CBJ2
FinalSat, Mar 29, 2025Every game that night
OTT3

OTT beat CBJ 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.36 expected goals to 2.06. R. Greig led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Batherson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. L. Ullmark stopped 28 of 30.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
CBJ1012
OTT2103
  1. 1st 7:24OTTR. Greig0.07 xG
  2. 1st 7:55CBJB. Jenner0.11 xG
  3. 1st 14:08OTTD. Batherson0.28 xG
  4. 2nd 9:17OTTJ. Sanderson0.25 xG
  5. 3rd 11:02CBJK. Marchenko0.09 xG

Team Stats

CBJOTT
30Shots on goal27
2.06Expected goals3.36
62Shot attempts63
245v5 shots on goal22
0/1Power play0/2
22Hits23
16Blocked shots18
4Penalty minutes2
10Giveaways15
2Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 2.06 xGOTT 3.36 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdOTT goal, 7:24CBJ goal, 7:55OTT goal, 14:08OTT goal, 9:17CBJ goal, 11:02

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ29 on goal, 2 scored
OTT27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
K. MarchenkoRW101211-1018:172:00
B. JennerC1012110217:382:00
K. JohnsonC000102-1219:091:57
S. MonahanC000020-1018:541:57
A. FantilliC0004010017:200:03
D. VoronkovLW0003100015:390:00
C. SillingerC0001210015:390:00
J. DanforthRW0002200015:170:00
M. OlivierRW0002410014:210:00
S. KuralyC0002300010:190:00
Z. Aston-ReeseLW0001000010:070:00
L. KuninC000011009:290:00
Z. WerenskiD022501+1029:162:00
D. MateychukD0112120023:030:00
I. ProvorovD000303-1022:050:03
E. GudbransonD000021-1017:270:00
D. SeversonD0000010013:430:00
J. ChristiansenD000020-1010:470:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Tarasov27243.88957:30Loss
E. Merzlikins000–0:00

OTT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
R. GreigC1122310018:511:29
S. PintoC0221220018:490:08
D. CozensC011240+1017:192:24
D. BathersonRW101511+1016:172:19
T. StützleC0003200018:072:22
B. TkachukLW000100+2217:542:17
C. GirouxRW000011-1016:321:35
D. PerronLW0001400015:281:41
F. ZetterlundLW0000200015:161:26
M. AmadioRW0001300011:160:00
M. HighmoreC000202008:390:00
A. GaudetteRW000000006:580:00
J. SandersonD101402+1022:492:30
T. ChabotD0111060022:471:30
A. ZubD0112020021:060:19
N. JensenD000201+1020:480:00
N. MatinpaloD0000000014:350:00
T. KlevenD0000100014:290:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Ullmark30282.93360:00Win
A. Forsberg000–0:00

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCBJ 3.1, OTT 3.7CBJ 2, OTT 3
Total goals6.85
Shots on goalCBJ 28.3, OTT 32.4CBJ 30, OTT 27
Win chanceOTT 60%OTT won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
OTT B. Tkachuk3.910.89035%0
CBJ Z. Werenski3.450.84217%0
CBJ K. Marchenko2.520.73129%1
CBJ B. Jenner2.420.60127%1
OTT D. Cozens2.320.67124%0
OTT T. Chabot2.210.56112%0
CBJ A. Fantilli2.240.58024%0
OTT J. Sanderson2.240.63110%1
CBJ S. Monahan2.200.76024%0
OTT D. Batherson2.250.83127%1
OTT S. Pinto2.010.59225%0
OTT T. Stützle2.031.05030%0
CBJ D. Voronkov2.030.55023%0
OTT D. Perron1.910.69027%0
OTT F. Zetterlund1.900.47019%0
OTT C. Giroux1.800.76025%0
CBJ K. Johnson1.710.62023%0
OTT R. Greig1.720.54222%1
CBJ C. Sillinger1.610.36013%0
CBJ M. Olivier1.320.33015%0
CBJ J. Danforth1.320.34015%0
OTT M. Amadio1.210.43020%0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese1.210.21010%0
OTT A. Zub1.220.3117%0
CBJ I. Provorov1.130.3307%0
CBJ L. Kunin1.100.19011%0
OTT N. Jensen1.120.2905%0
OTT N. Matinpalo1.000.0702%0
CBJ S. Kuraly1.020.21010%0
OTT T. Kleven1.000.1405%0
CBJ E. Gudbranson1.000.2104%0
OTT A. Gaudette1.000.25013%0
CBJ D. Severson1.000.2807%0
OTT M. Highmore1.020.2409%0
CBJ D. Mateychuk0.920.2217%0
CBJ J. Christiansen0.600.0902%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.