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Game Recap
CBJ4
OTT1
CBJ beat OTT 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.20 expected goals to 2.33. D. Severson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Greaves stopped 27 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| OTT | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 15:58CBJB. Jenner0.24 xG
- 2nd 1:21CBJD. Severson0.03 xG
- 2nd 8:16OTTJ. Sanderson0.07 xG
- 3rd 1:57CBJD. Mateychuk0.03 xG
- 3rd 15:54CBJK. Marchenko0.20 xG
Team Stats
CBJOTT
22Shots on goal28
3.20Expected goals2.33
45Shot attempts60
155v5 shots on goal20
0/3Power play0/4
23Hits18
16Blocked shots10
13Penalty minutes11
20Giveaways14
5Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 3.20 xGOTT 2.33 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:08 | 0:35 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:49 | 0:12 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:26 | 5:19 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:09 | 4:49 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:27 | 4:56 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:31 | 4:30 |
| B. Jenner | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:56 | 1:01 |
| B. Gaunce | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:00 |
| M. Wood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:00 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 13:00 | 0:00 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:04 | 0:00 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:05 | 0:00 |
| D. Severson | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 18:41 | 0:48 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 27:26 | 4:43 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 27:04 | 0:42 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 19:09 | 0:00 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:29 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Greaves | 28 | 27 | 1 | .964 | 60:00 | Win |
| E. Merzlikins | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:55 | 5:17 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:52 | 4:54 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 20:43 | 4:38 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:14 | 0:08 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 18:00 | 5:10 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:11 | 2:03 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:18 | 2:50 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 16:03 | 2:09 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:12 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 11:25 | 2:14 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:44 | 0:00 |
| K. MacDermid | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:55 | 4:35 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 22:57 | 2:58 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 17:18 | 0:14 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:06 | 0:13 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:00 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:51 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Meriläinen | 22 | 18 | 4 | .818 | 55:50 | Loss |
| H. Shepard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CBJ
Line 1M. Marchment13:53A. Fantilli13:07K. Marchenko11:43
Line 2C. Coyle10:52B. Jenner10:04M. Olivier10:38
Line 3D. Voronkov10:27C. Sillinger11:41M. Wood9:39
Line 4B. Gaunce9:32K. Johnson8:04Z. Aston-Reese7:05
Pair 1D. Severson14:58D. Mateychuk16:21
Pair 2D. Fabbro15:40I. Provorov17:20
Pair 3B. Smith10:22J. Christiansen10:09
OTT
Line 1D. Batherson12:55D. Cozens10:41B. Tkachuk10:48
Line 2M. Amadio14:01S. Pinto12:50N. Cousins9:44
Line 3T. Stützle11:54F. Zetterlund13:02D. Perron7:23
Pair 2J. Sanderson14:21A. Zub13:29
Pair 3T. Kleven12:00N. Matinpalo11:53
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 2.8, OTT 3.4 | CBJ 4, OTT 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 26.1, OTT 30.8 | CBJ 22, OTT 28 |
| Win chance | OTT 61% | CBJ won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 4.2 | 2 | 0.90 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.8 | 3 | 0.75 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.5 | 1 | 1.05 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.5 | 5 | 0.72 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.5 | 1 | 0.93 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.5 | 3 | 0.72 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.4 | 1 | 0.72 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 2.2 | 4 | 0.52 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 2.1 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.0 | 3 | 0.63 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.0 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Marchment | 1.9 | 1 | 0.54 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 1.8 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.8 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Wood | 1.8 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| OTT D. Perron | 1.7 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.6 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.6 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.5 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT J. Spence | 1.5 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Coyle | 1.4 | 2 | 0.52 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.3 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 2 | 7% | 1 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Gaunce | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 1.0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Smith | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.6 | 1 | 0.08 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
| OTT K. MacDermid | 0.3 | 0 | 0.06 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.