Game Recap: CBJ 4, PHI 5 (OT), December 21, 2024

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Game Recap

CBJ4

Final/OTSat, Dec 21, 2024Every game that night

PHI5

PHI beat CBJ 5-4 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.32 expected goals to 2.11. O. Tippett led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). K. Marchenko had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. S. Ersson stopped 21 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
CBJ	1	1	2	0	4
PHI	0	0	4	1	5

1st 15:47CBJM. Olivier0.12 xG
2nd 7:05CBJM. Pyyhtia0.17 xG
3rd 6:53PHIM. Frost0.09 xG
3rd 8:48PHIN. Cates0.34 xG
3rd 10:01CBJK. Marchenko0.14 xG
3rd 11:51PHIM. Frost0.14 xG
3rd 15:49CBJJ. Christiansen0.01 xG
3rd 18:16PHIT. Foerster0.11 xG
OT 3:30PHIO. Tippett0.29 xG

Team Stats

CBJPHI

25Shots on goal30

2.11Expected goals3.32

45Shot attempts70

195v5 shots on goal25

0/1Power play0/3

19Hits14

24Blocked shots11

8Penalty minutes4

11Giveaways8

1Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 2.11 xGPHI 3.32 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ25 on goal, 4 scored

PHI30 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Voronkov	LW	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	0	15:57	0:45
K. Marchenko	RW	1	0	1	6	0	3	+1	0	18:48	0:43
K. Johnson	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	17:57	0:46
M. Olivier	RW	1	0	1	2	5	1	0	2	16:51	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	1	1	0	3	4	-1	2	11:27	0:05
M. Pyyhtia	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	0	10:45	0:03
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	21:22	0:43
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	-1	0	20:08	1:07
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	13:55	1:12
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	4	12:06	0:00
J. Malatesta	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	10:12	0:07
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:11	1:12
I. Provorov	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	0	26:57	0:58
J. Christiansen	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	+3	0	15:24	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-2	0	28:41	0:56
Z. Werenski	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	-4	0	27:32	0:45
J. Johnson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:43	0:19
J. Harris	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:34	0:19

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	30	25	5	.833	63:30	OT loss
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
O. Tippett	RW	1	3	4	3	1	1	+2	0	19:11	2:44
T. Konecny	RW	0	3	3	1	0	0	+1	0	23:11	2:48
M. Frost	C	2	0	2	2	2	0	0	2	18:51	2:44
T. Foerster	RW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	0	17:55	2:54
N. Cates	LW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+1	0	16:12	0:27
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:38	2:48
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	16:05	2:10
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:02	2:38
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	13:06	2:24
O. Lycksell	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	10:58	0:37
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:27	0:42
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	9:13	0:13
C. York	D	0	1	1	3	2	2	+2	0	23:34	0:51
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+3	0	25:42	0:42
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	19:43	0:00
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	18:33	2:40
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-3	0	15:31	2:38
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	14:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	25	21	4	.840	63:12	Win
A. Kolosov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamIvan Provorov CBJ Faces PHI, his team until Apr 20231 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 3.2, PHI 3.3	CBJ 4, PHI 5
Total goals	6.5	9
Shots on goal	CBJ 27.5, PHI 32.1	CBJ 25, PHI 30
Win chance	PHI 53%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI T. Konecny	2.9	1	1.12	3	38%	0
CBJ Z. Werenski	2.9	2	0.95	0	19%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.7	3	0.63	4	27%	1
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.3	6	0.71	1	28%	1
CBJ S. Monahan	2.3	1	0.79	0	26%	0
PHI J. Farabee	2.2	1	0.60	0	23%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.0	2	0.86	0	26%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.0	1	0.62	2	27%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.9	1	0.55	0	12%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.8	2	0.51	2	24%	1
CBJ K. Johnson	1.8	2	0.67	1	23%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	1.8	2	0.51	0	20%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.8	4	0.43	0	15%	0
PHI S. Laughton	1.7	2	0.51	0	18%	0
PHI M. Frost	1.6	2	0.55	2	18%	2
PHI B. Brink	1.5	1	0.49	0	17%	0
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.5	0	0.46	0	17%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.5	2	0.36	0	6%	0
PHI O. Lycksell	1.4	3	0.31	0	11%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.4	2	0.28	0	4%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.4	2	0.32	0	14%	0
PHI C. York	1.4	3	0.36	1	9%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.4	0	0.52	0	12%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	1.3	0	0.32	0	14%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.3	2	0.27	0	5%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.3	1	0.42	2	16%	1
CBJ M. Olivier	1.2	2	0.37	1	15%	1
CBJ I. Provorov	1.2	0	0.40	1	8%	0
PHI R. Poehling	1.1	1	0.38	0	15%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.0	0	0.27	1	12%	0
CBJ J. Malatesta	1.0	0	0.35	0	14%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.8	1	0.32	0	6%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.8	1	0.18	1	2%	1
CBJ M. Pyyhtia	0.7	2	0.17	1	8%	1
CBJ J. Johnson	0.5	0	0.10	0	2%	0
CBJ J. Harris	0.5	0	0.17	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.