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Game Recap
CBJ2
TBL6
TBL beat CBJ 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.74 expected goals to 2.45. J. Guentzel led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Guentzel had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. J. Johansson stopped 31 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| TBL | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
- 1st 0:30TBLM. Chaffee0.05 xG
- 1st 1:37TBLN. Kucherov0.15 xG
- 1st 17:20CBJZ. Werenski0.01 xG
- 2nd 1:27TBLJ. Guentzel0.04 xG
- 2nd 6:36TBLV. Hedman0.05 xG
- 2nd 10:49CBJZ. WerenskiSH0.21 xG
- 3rd 9:44TBLV. HedmanPP0.07 xG
- 3rd 17:53TBLJ. GuentzelEN0.49 xG
Team Stats
CBJTBL
33Shots on goal40
2.45Expected goals3.74
72Shot attempts73
255v5 shots on goal33
0/2Power play1/3
19Hits10
18Blocked shots22
18Penalty minutes6
20Giveaways17
2Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 2.45 xGTBL 3.74 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:13 | 3:05 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:17 | 2:56 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:58 | 3:05 |
| B. Jenner | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:05 | 1:57 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:00 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 15:01 | 0:39 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:58 | 2:45 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:25 | 1:04 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:13 | 0:55 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:00 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 11:28 | 0:39 |
| J. LaBate | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11:01 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 29:55 | 3:05 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:59 | 0:00 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 18:05 | 0:55 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:07 | 0:00 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:55 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 39 | 34 | 5 | .872 | 57:10 | Loss |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 19:57 | 3:39 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:44 | 3:49 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:46 | 3:52 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:26 | 2:21 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:45 | 2:28 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:30 | 1:10 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:32 | 0:48 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:10 | 0:09 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:14 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11:42 | 0:00 |
| C. Atkinson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:21 | 0:51 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:42 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | +3 | 0 | 24:22 | 3:27 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:31 | 1:12 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:00 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:49 | 0:01 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 19:00 | 0:18 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 18:29 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Johansson | 33 | 31 | 2 | .939 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Vasilevskiy | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 2.9, TBL 3.5 | CBJ 2, TBL 6 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 27.2, TBL 30.3 | CBJ 33, TBL 40 |
| Win chance | TBL 59% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.5 | 7 | 1.64 | 3 | 39% | 1 |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.3 | 4 | 0.85 | 2 | 18% | 2 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.9 | 7 | 1.03 | 3 | 38% | 2 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.8 | 2 | 1.11 | 2 | 43% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.7 | 2 | 1.01 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.6 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.5 | 3 | 0.63 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 2.4 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.3 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.3 | 4 | 0.77 | 3 | 13% | 2 |
| CBJ E. Chinakhov | 2.1 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 2.0 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.8 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.8 | 3 | 0.61 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.6 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.4 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.4 | 3 | 0.36 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.4 | 4 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.4 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.4 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.3 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL C. Atkinson | 1.2 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 1.1 | 3 | 0.30 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.0 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.8 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.7 | 3 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 1 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.