Game Recap: CBJ 3, UTA 2 (OT), January 31, 2025

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Game Recap

CBJ3

Final/OTFri, Jan 31, 2025Every game that night

UTA2

CBJ beat UTA 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.08 expected goals to 3.76. UTA outshot CBJ 34 to 23. Z. Werenski led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Maccelli had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. D. Tarasov stopped 32 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
CBJ	0	0	2	1	3
UTA	0	1	1	0	2

2nd 0:41UTAN. SchmaltzPP0.11 xG
3rd 0:29UTAA. Kerfoot0.34 xG
3rd 6:25CBJK. Marchenko0.38 xG
3rd 11:42CBJK. Johnson0.03 xG
OT 1:01CBJZ. Werenski0.17 xG

Team Stats

CBJUTA

23Shots on goal34

2.08Expected goals3.76

47Shot attempts88

165v5 shots on goal25

0/2Power play1/3

19Hits23

20Blocked shots17

6Penalty minutes4

6Giveaways15

7Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 2.08 xGUTA 3.76 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ23 on goal, 3 scored

UTA34 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Fantilli	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	19:50	2:14
K. Marchenko	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	19:01	2:12
C. Sillinger	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	17:28	1:46
K. Johnson	C	1	0	1	1	0	2	+2	2	16:06	2:13
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	7:27	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	18:48	2:12
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	16:15	1:48
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:33	0:34
L. Del Bel Belluz	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	13:14	1:14
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	12:33	0:00
J. Danforth	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:59	0:00
M. Pyyhtia	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:57	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	1	1	2	5	0	1	+3	0	27:48	2:15
D. Fabbro	D	0	1	1	2	2	3	+1	0	21:52	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	19:14	1:45
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	17:13	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	16:41	1:47
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	34	32	2	.941	61:01	Win
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	0	2	2	6	1	0	+1	0	21:33	4:23
N. Schmaltz	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	20:44	4:23
B. Hayton	C	0	1	1	4	0	1	-2	0	18:36	4:23
A. Kerfoot	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	16:48	0:00
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	17:23	4:21
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	16:40	1:23
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	2	6	0	-1	0	15:46	0:00
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	6	0	0	-1	0	14:53	1:25
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	14:15	1:23
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:17	0:00
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:35	1:21
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7:05	0:00
J. Marino	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	-1	0	20:47	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	23:29	4:32
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	-1	4	18:24	0:02
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	18:18	1:14
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	17:54	0:00
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	16:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	23	20	3	.870	61:01	OT loss
C. Ingram	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 2.7, UTA 3.4	CBJ 3, UTA 2
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	CBJ 27.1, UTA 30.3	CBJ 23, UTA 34
Win chance	UTA 61%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.4	5	0.84	2	17%	1
UTA C. Keller	2.7	6	1.15	2	37%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.6	1	0.72	1	28%	1
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.3	4	0.60	1	24%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.2	3	0.93	1	28%	1
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.2	2	0.61	0	26%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	2.1	0	0.41	1	16%	0
UTA M. Kesselring	1.9	4	0.41	0	9%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.9	1	0.71	0	13%	0
UTA J. Doan	1.9	1	0.55	0	22%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.8	4	0.53	1	20%	0
UTA N. Bjugstad	1.8	1	0.43	0	20%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.8	0	0.45	0	24%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.7	1	0.55	1	20%	1
UTA M. Carcone	1.6	0	0.39	0	21%	0
UTA M. Maccelli	1.6	6	0.56	0	17%	0
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.5	1	0.43	1	17%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.4	2	0.26	1	6%	0
CBJ L. Belluz	1.3	1	0.50	0	16%	0
CBJ J. Danforth	1.3	1	0.28	0	13%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.2	0	0.25	0	15%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.2	1	0.23	0	12%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.2	2	0.45	1	15%	1
UTA J. McBain	1.2	2	0.42	0	18%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	1.1	0	0.25	0	5%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.1	1	0.29	0	13%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.1	1	0.34	0	6%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.1	0	0.29	0	7%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.1	1	0.24	0	11%	0
UTA I. Cole	1.0	1	0.25	0	4%	0
UTA O. Maatta	1.0	0	0.27	0	5%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	1.0	0	0.18	0	7%	0
UTA J. Marino	1.0	3	0.37	1	5%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.0	1	0.21	0	5%	0
CBJ M. Pyyhtia	0.8	0	0.16	0	9%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.7	0	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.