Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
CBJ3
UTA2
CBJ beat UTA 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.85 expected goals to 2.25. CBJ outshot UTA 36 to 27. K. Marchenko led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). C. Sillinger had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Greaves stopped 25 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| UTA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 2:47CBJM. Pyyhtia0.07 xG
- 1st 16:20UTAJ. McBain0.14 xG
- 2nd 1:02UTAM. Sergachev0.02 xG
- 2nd 18:31CBJC. CoylePP0.29 xG
- OT 1:01CBJD. VoronkovPP0.18 xG
Team Stats
CBJUTA
36Shots on goal27
3.85Expected goals2.25
74Shot attempts66
305v5 shots on goal23
2/3Power play0/2
18Hits15
23Blocked shots21
4Penalty minutes6
16Giveaways11
2Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 3.85 xGUTA 2.25 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 18:11 | 3:38 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:56 | 3:39 |
| C. Coyle | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:29 | 2:27 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14:03 | 1:45 |
| M. Pyyhtia | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:54 | 0:00 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:13 | 0:00 |
| B. Jenner | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 16:58 | 0:33 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:53 | 0:00 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:06 | 0:00 |
| B. Gaunce | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:32 | 0:00 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:24 | 2:42 |
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:58 | 0:29 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 28:19 | 3:39 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25:07 | 0:34 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:21 | 0:00 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 21:16 | 0:33 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:43 | 0:00 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:41 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Greaves | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 61:01 | Win |
| E. Merzlikins | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:00 | 3:14 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:49 | 3:10 |
| J. McBain | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11:48 | 0:06 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:14 | 0:27 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:29 | 0:00 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:04 | 3:17 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:59 | 3:04 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:49 | 0:34 |
| D. But | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 12:44 | 0:36 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:32 | 0:31 |
| K. Yamamoto | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:59 | 0:00 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 9:50 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 25:20 | 1:24 |
| N. DeSimone | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:06 | 0:00 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 22:04 | 2:20 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:10 | 0:01 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:48 | 0:01 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:52 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Vanecek | 36 | 33 | 3 | .917 | 61:01 | OT loss |
| K. Vejmelka | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CBJ
Line 1K. Marchenko14:33A. Fantilli15:17C. Sillinger14:06
Line 2C. Coyle13:52M. Olivier14:55D. Voronkov12:18
Line 3B. Jenner15:05S. Monahan12:05K. Johnson11:42
Line 4M. Pyyhtia11:26B. Gaunce12:52D. Heinen10:13
Pair 1D. Severson20:43Z. Werenski22:32
Pair 2I. Provorov22:40E. Zamula20:27
UTA
Line 1N. Schmaltz16:45L. Crouse16:02C. Keller17:31
Line 2J. McBain11:42D. But12:08M. Carcone12:01
Line 3J. Peterka12:55B. Hayton12:51D. Guenther12:42
Line 4K. Stenlund12:55K. Yamamoto10:59B. Tanev9:50
Pair 1M. Sergachev20:13S. Durzi19:34
Pair 2N. Schmidt19:06J. Marino19:24
Pair 3I. Cole15:21N. DeSimone12:06
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 2.9, UTA 3.7 | CBJ 3, UTA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 26.1, UTA 31.2 | CBJ 36, UTA 27 |
| Win chance | UTA 63% | CBJ won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA D. Guenther | 3.3 | 3 | 0.94 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.1 | 3 | 0.77 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 3.0 | 2 | 1.13 | 2 | 34% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.7 | 2 | 1.01 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.5 | 4 | 0.69 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.3 | 3 | 0.61 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| UTA J. Peterka | 2.3 | 1 | 0.81 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 2.1 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 2.1 | 2 | 0.78 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 2.0 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 2.0 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.9 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.7 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.6 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA D. But | 1.6 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 1.6 | 3 | 0.46 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 1.5 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.3 | 4 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| CBJ C. Coyle | 1.3 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Gaunce | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmidt | 1.1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA K. Yamamoto | 0.9 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA N. DeSimone | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.9 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Heinen | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA B. Tanev | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Pyyhtia | 0.7 | 3 | 0.13 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| CBJ E. Zamula | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.