Game Recap: CBJ 2, VAN 5, December 6, 2024

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Game Recap

CBJ2

FinalFri, Dec 6, 2024Every game that night

VAN5

VAN beat CBJ 5-2, with the chances close: 3.24 expected goals to 2.77. CBJ outshot VAN 32 to 17. P. Suter led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Sillinger had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. K. Lankinen stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	2	0	0	2
VAN	0	2	3	5

1st 7:10CBJM. Olivier0.12 xG
1st 12:18CBJD. Severson0.07 xG
2nd 3:52VANB. Boeser0.05 xG
2nd 19:00VANK. Sherwood0.03 xG
3rd 2:17VANP. Suter0.18 xG
3rd 10:22VANJ. DeBruskPP0.09 xG
3rd 18:55VANP. SuterEN0.54 xG

Team Stats

CBJVAN

32Shots on goal17

2.77Expected goals3.24

74Shot attempts44

265v5 shots on goal12

0/3Power play1/2

18Hits28

11Blocked shots18

15Penalty minutes17

15Giveaways11

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 2.77 xGVAN 3.24 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ31 on goal, 2 scored

VAN17 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Sillinger	C	0	1	1	5	0	0	+1	0	17:31	2:00
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	16:11	4:02
M. Olivier	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	13:00	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	9	10:13	0:00
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	21:57	4:00
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	2	20:23	3:43
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	0	16:30	1:58
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-2	2	15:55	2:09
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	12:54	3:51
J. Danforth	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	12:46	0:00
K. Labanc	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:38	1:58
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:16	0:00
D. Severson	D	1	0	1	4	2	4	0	0	24:38	1:14
I. Provorov	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	8:07	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	2	28:40	4:46
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	22:59	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	16:29	0:19
J. Harris	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	11:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	16	12	4	.750	58:43	Loss
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Suter	C	2	0	2	3	0	0	+2	0	17:14	0:46
B. Boeser	RW	1	1	2	2	3	0	0	0	16:51	1:59
E. Pettersson	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	2	18:39	1:44
J. DeBrusk	LW	1	0	1	3	6	0	0	0	17:56	2:10
C. Garland	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	17:06	1:18
T. Blueger	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	16:50	0:00
K. Sherwood	LW	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	0	14:14	0:21
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	2	13:19	0:30
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	11:51	0:00
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	10:10	0:00
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:16	0:00
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6:48	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	2	2	1	0	1	+3	0	26:25	2:22
V. Desharnais	D	0	1	1	2	0	4	+1	2	18:35	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	22:21	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	2	21:20	0:09
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	5	15:43	0:00
E. Brannstrom	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	2	14:22	0:09

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	32	30	2	.938	60:00	Win
T. Demko	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamConor Garland CBJ First game back in Vancouver, his team until Mar 20261 A, 0 SOG
HometownDante Fabbro CBJ Plays near home (born in Coquitlam)1 SOG
HometownKent Johnson CBJ Plays near home (born in Port Moody)3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 2.8, VAN 3.7	CBJ 2, VAN 5
Total goals	6.5	7
Shots on goal	CBJ 27.9, VAN 30.2	CBJ 32, VAN 17
Win chance	VAN 65%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VAN C. Garland	3.1	0	1.04	1	33%	0
CBJ Z. Werenski	2.9	1	0.75	0	17%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.9	1	1.22	2	15%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.6	3	0.89	1	36%	1
VAN E. Pettersson	2.4	1	1.22	1	38%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.4	2	0.96	2	35%	1
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.2	0	0.57	1	24%	0
VAN P. Suter	2.1	3	0.60	2	26%	2
CBJ C. Sillinger	2.1	5	0.45	1	15%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	2.0	1	0.61	1	24%	1
CBJ S. Monahan	2.0	1	0.63	0	20%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.9	1	0.50	0	21%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	1.9	4	0.49	0	18%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.7	3	0.53	0	18%	0
CBJ J. Danforth	1.5	3	0.35	0	15%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.4	4	0.43	1	12%	1
VAN D. Heinen	1.4	1	0.50	0	21%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.4	0	0.24	1	12%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.3	1	0.33	0	5%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.3	1	0.25	0	7%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.3	0	0.45	1	13%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.3	0	0.32	1	8%	0
VAN C. Soucy	1.2	1	0.28	0	8%	0
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.2	2	0.31	0	12%	0
VAN E. Brannstrom	1.2	0	0.31	0	5%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.2	0	0.35	0	18%	0
CBJ K. Labanc	1.1	1	0.29	0	10%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.1	2	0.28	1	12%	1
VAN D. Joshua	1.1	1	0.53	0	22%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	0.9	0	0.21	0	9%	0
VAN A. Räty	0.9	0	0.25	0	13%	0
VAN N. Juulsen	0.8	0	0.15	0	3%	0
VAN M. Sasson	0.7	0	0.36	0	11%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.7	3	0.14	0	2%	0
VAN V. Desharnais	0.6	2	0.15	1	2%	0
CBJ J. Harris	0.5	1	0.13	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.