Game Recap: CBJ 3, VGK 5, January 8, 2026

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Game Recap

CBJ3

FinalThu, Jan 8, 2026Every game that night

VGK5

VGK beat CBJ 5-3, with the chances close: 3.18 expected goals to 3.32. M. Stone led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). I. Provorov had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. A. Schmid stopped 22 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	2	0	1	3
VGK	1	3	1	5

1st 8:24CBJB. Jenner0.10 xG
1st 10:41CBJK. Johnson0.21 xG
1st 12:20VGKR. Smith0.10 xG
2nd 5:19VGKR. Smith0.17 xG
2nd 13:07VGKJ. Eichel0.07 xG
2nd 18:44VGKM. StonePP0.21 xG
3rd 14:28CBJK. Marchenko0.16 xG
3rd 16:14VGKB. Howden0.17 xG

Team Stats

CBJVGK

25Shots on goal26

3.32Expected goals3.18

64Shot attempts51

195v5 shots on goal19

0/1Power play1/2

28Hits19

12Blocked shots20

4Penalty minutes2

18Giveaways15

4Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 3.32 xGVGK 3.18 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ25 on goal, 3 scored

VGK26 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Jenner	C	1	1	2	3	3	0	0	0	17:57	0:41
S. Monahan	C	0	2	2	1	1	0	+1	0	17:11	1:17
K. Marchenko	RW	1	0	1	4	0	2	+1	0	19:35	1:26
A. Fantilli	C	0	1	1	0	4	0	0	0	18:12	0:36
K. Johnson	C	1	0	1	3	1	2	-1	0	16:41	1:24
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	17:17	1:15
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	16:29	0:43
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:57	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	2	13:40	0:00
B. Gaunce	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	2	11:06	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	10:26	0:00
M. Pyyhtia	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:27	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	28:00	1:30
I. Provorov	D	0	1	1	5	0	2	0	0	24:13	0:30
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	23:21	0:34
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	19:14	0:04
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	12:58	0:00
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	11:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	26	21	5	.808	56:48	Loss
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Stone	RW	1	2	3	3	0	3	+1	0	22:32	2:14
J. Eichel	C	1	1	2	4	0	1	+1	0	22:40	2:16
M. Marner	RW	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	0	17:40	2:16
T. Hertl	C	0	2	2	5	2	1	+1	0	16:09	2:13
R. Smith	RW	2	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	14:21	0:00
I. Barbashev	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	20:47	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	2	12:02	0:00
B. Howden	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	11:04	0:00
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:40	0:00
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:35	2:11
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	10:34	0:00
B. Bowman	RW	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	9:24	0:02
B. Hutton	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	16:17	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+2	0	24:54	0:05
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	1	4	3	+2	0	22:52	0:03
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	18:22	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	1	3	4	-1	0	17:16	0:00
D. Coghlan	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	15:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	1	0	1	.000	8:24
A. Schmid	24	22	2	.917	51:29	Win

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1K. Marchenko15:46A. Fantilli15:48D. Voronkov14:10

Line 2B. Jenner14:56K. Johnson14:15S. Monahan13:18

Line 3M. Olivier13:01C. Sillinger13:02C. Coyle12:15

Line 4B. Gaunce10:50Z. Aston-Reese10:26M. Pyyhtia9:27

Pair 1D. Severson20:58I. Provorov20:19

Pair 2Z. Werenski23:20D. Mateychuk16:45

Pair 3D. Fabbro12:17E. Zamula11:12

VGK

Line 1M. Stone18:36I. Barbashev18:51J. Eichel18:38

Line 2B. Saad12:40M. Marner12:39R. Smith12:03

Line 3T. Hertl12:18K. Kolesar12:02B. Howden10:59

Line 4P. Dorofeyev9:24B. Bowman9:22C. Sissons9:40

Pair 1N. Hanifin20:30Z. Whitecloud18:44

Pair 2B. Hutton16:17D. Coghlan15:58

Pair 3K. Korczak17:22J. Lauzon16:02

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 2.8, VGK 3.5	CBJ 3, VGK 5
Total goals	6.3	8
Shots on goal	CBJ 25.7, VGK 31.4	CBJ 25, VGK 26
Win chance	VGK 61%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.7	4	1.26	2	34%	1
VGK P. Dorofeyev	3.0	0	0.71	0	33%	0
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.0	1	0.84	1	18%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	2.6	0	0.61	0	14%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.5	5	0.75	2	28%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.5	4	0.72	1	27%	1
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.5	0	0.66	1	27%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.4	3	1.08	3	31%	1
CBJ B. Jenner	2.2	3	0.56	2	23%	1
VGK M. Marner	2.1	1	1.19	2	29%	0
VGK D. Coghlan	1.9	0	0.19	0	4%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.8	0	0.39	0	19%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.7	0	0.32	1	10%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.6	1	0.49	0	20%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.6	1	0.59	2	19%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.6	5	0.39	1	8%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	1	0.63	1	23%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.5	2	0.44	2	17%	2
VGK B. Howden	1.5	3	0.47	1	21%	1
VGK B. Bowman	1.4	1	0.47	0	16%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.4	1	0.35	0	12%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.3	1	0.51	0	18%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.3	1	0.36	0	6%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.3	0	0.36	0	14%	0
CBJ B. Gaunce	1.2	2	0.24	0	12%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.2	0	0.44	0	11%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.2	2	0.36	0	8%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.1	1	0.27	0	11%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	1.1	1	0.17	0	5%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.1	3	0.35	1	13%	1
VGK K. Kolesar	1.0	2	0.26	1	10%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	1.0	1	0.23	0	7%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	0.9	1	0.20	0	5%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	0.7	0	0.15	0	6%	0
CBJ M. Pyyhtia	0.7	0	0.15	0	7%	0
CBJ E. Zamula	0.6	0	0.17	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.