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Game Recap
CBJ2
WSH7
WSH beat CBJ 7-2, with the chances close: 3.33 expected goals to 3.54. CBJ outshot WSH 36 to 22. A. Ovechkin led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). L. Thompson stopped 34 of 36.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| WSH | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
- 1st 0:56WSHA. Protas0.23 xG
- 1st 1:42WSHC. McMichael0.13 xG
- 1st 7:28WSHA. Mangiapane0.20 xG
- 1st 14:34WSHA. Ovechkin0.04 xG
- 1st 14:58WSHN. Dowd0.18 xG
- 2nd 0:49CBJD. Severson0.05 xG
- 2nd 4:51WSHC. McMichael0.03 xG
- 2nd 14:36CBJK. Labanc0.74 xG
- 3rd 18:34WSHD. Strome0.16 xG
Team Stats
CBJWSH
36Shots on goal22
3.54Expected goals3.33
86Shot attempts45
285v5 shots on goal20
0/3Power play0/1
17Hits14
10Blocked shots30
2Penalty minutes6
13Giveaways21
10Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 3.54 xGWSH 3.33 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:34 | 1:44 |
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 16:32 | 3:02 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:09 |
| K. Labanc | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:00 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 18:15 | 3:02 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:51 | 3:04 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:25 | 3:03 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:49 | 1:43 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:47 | 1:30 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:52 | 0:00 |
| M. Pyyhtia | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:28 | 0:00 |
| D. Severson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:57 | 1:40 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 25:06 | 3:11 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 24:32 | 1:37 |
| D.Jiricek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tarasov | 22 | 15 | 7 | .682 | 60:00 | Loss |
| E. Merzlikins | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Strome | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 2 | 14:47 | 0:00 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 0 | 13:35 | 0:34 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:56 | 0:34 |
| A. Protas | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:49 | 0:11 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15:49 | 0:34 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:33 | 0:11 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:27 | 0:34 |
| N. Dowd | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Vrana | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:11 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 13:56 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:55 | 0:00 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:19 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 20:37 | 0:00 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 18:42 | 0:00 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 22:02 | 0:11 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:20 | 0:34 |
| D. McIlrath | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:02 | 0:11 |
| A. Alexeyev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 16:44 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 36 | 34 | 2 | .944 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 2.8, WSH 3.8 | CBJ 2, WSH 7 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 26.8, WSH 32.5 | CBJ 36, WSH 22 |
| Win chance | WSH 65% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.3 | 4 | 0.98 | 3 | 41% | 1 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.8 | 0 | 0.90 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 2.7 | 4 | 0.65 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.5 | 1 | 0.69 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.3 | 4 | 0.58 | 2 | 26% | 2 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.3 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 2.2 | 0 | 0.70 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 2.2 | 2 | 0.66 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 2.1 | 2 | 0.97 | 3 | 30% | 1 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.1 | 4 | 0.50 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 2.0 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Chinakhov | 2.0 | 4 | 0.52 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 1.9 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.9 | 1 | 0.52 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| WSH J. Vrana | 1.8 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.7 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.5 | 0 | 0.36 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.5 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.5 | 3 | 0.33 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.4 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.4 | 3 | 0.40 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.3 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.3 | 0 | 0.46 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Labanc | 1.2 | 3 | 0.30 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.1 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 1.1 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Pyyhtia | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH A. Alexeyev | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CBJ D.Jiricek | 0.7 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Johnson | 0.7 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH D. McIlrath | 0.5 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.