Game Recap: CBJ 1, WSH 5, November 24, 2025

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Game Recap

CBJ1

FinalMon, Nov 24, 2025Every game that night

WSH5

WSH beat CBJ 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.86 expected goals to 1.78. WSH outshot CBJ 31 to 23. J. Chychrun led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Carlson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. L. Thompson stopped 22 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	0	0	1	1
WSH	1	3	1	5

1st 6:05WSHJ. Chychrun0.10 xG
2nd 16:29WSHT. Wilson0.20 xG
2nd 19:45WSHJ. ChychrunPP0.04 xG
2nd 19:57WSHJ. Carlson0.04 xG
3rd 4:05WSHM. Fehérváry0.03 xG
3rd 5:50CBJD. Mateychuk0.16 xG

Team Stats

CBJWSH

23Shots on goal31

1.78Expected goals2.86

51Shot attempts54

215v5 shots on goal25

0/2Power play1/3

21Hits11

10Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes4

15Giveaways15

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 1.78 xGWSH 2.86 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ23 on goal, 1 scored

WSH29 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Gaunce	C	0	1	1	3	3	0	0	2	12:53	0:00
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-3	0	21:09	3:19
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:13	3:19
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:22	3:18
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:42	0:41
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:25	0:38
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-3	0	16:19	0:42
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-3	0	16:13	3:22
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:32	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:17	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	+1	0	11:53	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	4:49	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	22:10	0:33
J. Christiansen	D	0	1	1	0	2	0	-2	2	12:52	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	26:44	1:27
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	20:54	0:41
Z. Werenski	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	17:36	2:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	17:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	31	26	5	.839	60:00	Loss
J. Greaves	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Wilson	RW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	0	17:39	3:31
J. Sourdif	C	0	2	2	1	1	0	+2	2	14:07	0:00
A. Protas	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+3	0	18:34	0:00
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	17:35	3:31
R. Leonard	RW	0	1	1	3	2	0	+1	0	15:50	1:53
C. McMichael	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	14:22	0:22
H. Lapierre	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	12:21	0:00
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:51	3:31
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	15:11	0:22
E. Frank	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	12:20	0:20
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	11:39	0:00
S. Milano	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:18	0:22
J. Chychrun	D	2	0	2	4	0	0	+1	2	24:54	3:31
J. Carlson	D	1	1	2	5	0	0	+3	0	19:41	1:38
M. Fehérváry	D	1	0	1	1	0	3	+3	0	17:54	0:00
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	+1	0	20:40	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	18:33	0:22
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	16:31	0:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	23	22	1	.957	60:00	Win
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1C. Coyle14:19C. Sillinger15:36M. Olivier4:49

Line 2E. Chinakhov15:37A. Fantilli17:49D. Voronkov12:51

Line 3K. Johnson14:54M. Wood13:05S. Monahan12:36

Line 4B. Gaunce12:23I. Lundestrom11:26Z. Aston-Reese10:50

Pair 1I. Provorov21:49Z. Werenski15:36

Pair 2D. Severson19:23D. Mateychuk19:14

Pair 3D. Fabbro15:51J. Christiansen12:27

WSH

Line 1A. Ovechkin14:04D. Strome14:10A. Beauvillier12:30

Line 2T. Wilson13:10A. Protas16:25J. Sourdif14:07

Line 3H. Lapierre12:21E. Frank12:00S. Milano9:56

Line 4R. Leonard13:44C. McMichael12:17B. Duhaime11:08

Pair 1J. Chychrun21:23M. Roy18:09

Pair 2J. Carlson16:46M. Fehérváry16:25

Pair 3R. Sandin15:41D. Chisholm16:19

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 2.9, WSH 3.5	CBJ 1, WSH 5
Total goals	6.5	6
Shots on goal	CBJ 27.3, WSH 30.9	CBJ 23, WSH 31
Win chance	WSH 60%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.4	4	0.84	0	19%	0
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.3	1	0.98	1	41%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.9	4	0.74	2	22%	2
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.5	3	0.75	0	30%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.3	2	0.81	2	32%	1
WSH A. Beauvillier	2.2	2	0.40	0	18%	0
WSH J. Carlson	2.2	5	0.75	2	14%	1
WSH C. McMichael	2.1	3	0.59	1	24%	0
WSH D. Strome	2.1	1	1.02	0	30%	0
WSH R. Leonard	2.1	3	0.40	1	17%	0
WSH A. Protas	2.0	2	0.71	1	24%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.0	2	0.62	0	25%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	2.0	0	0.69	0	21%	0
CBJ M. Wood	1.9	0	0.32	0	15%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.7	1	0.41	0	14%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.6	1	0.39	0	9%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.5	1	0.28	2	16%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.4	0	0.44	0	16%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.4	2	0.34	0	7%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.4	2	0.46	0	17%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.3	0	0.34	0	14%	0
WSH E. Frank	1.2	1	0.41	0	15%	0
CBJ E. Chinakhov	1.2	2	0.25	0	11%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.1	1	0.41	0	8%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.1	1	0.32	1	8%	1
CBJ D. Severson	1.1	0	0.33	0	8%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.1	3	0.32	1	10%	1
CBJ B. Gaunce	1.0	3	0.16	1	9%	0
WSH S. Milano	1.0	0	0.33	0	15%	0
WSH D. Chisholm	0.9	0	0.18	0	5%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	0.9	0	0.17	0	8%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	0.9	1	0.21	0	5%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.8	2	0.22	0	11%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.8	0	0.27	1	8%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.7	0	0.08	1	2%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.6	1	0.16	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.