Game Recap: CGY 6, PHI 3, March 4, 2025

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Game Recap

CGY6

FinalTue, Mar 4, 2025Every game that night

PHI3

CGY beat PHI 6-3, with the chances close: 3.41 expected goals to 3.08. C. Zary led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Bean had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. D. Wolf stopped 26 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	4	1	1	6
PHI	2	0	1	3

1st 7:40CGYC. Zary0.07 xG
1st 8:13CGYN. Kadri0.12 xG
1st 9:32CGYC. Zary0.07 xG
1st 9:54PHIN. Cates0.12 xG
1st 17:11PHIA. Kuzmenko0.10 xG
1st 17:29CGYY. Sharangovich0.26 xG
2nd 16:33CGYM. WeegarPP0.07 xG
3rd 10:43PHIS. Couturier0.66 xG
3rd 18:59CGYM. CoronatoEN0.66 xG

Team Stats

CGYPHI

34Shots on goal29

3.41Expected goals3.08

63Shot attempts63

295v5 shots on goal23

1/2Power play0/4

20Hits11

19Blocked shots15

6Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways18

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 3.41 xGPHI 3.08 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY31 on goal, 6 scored

PHI29 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	2	2	0	0	1	+3	2	19:59	2:26
N. Kadri	C	1	1	2	3	0	1	+2	0	19:09	2:26
M. Frost	C	0	2	2	3	1	0	+1	0	16:22	2:26
C. Zary	C	2	0	2	3	1	0	+2	0	15:34	0:00
Y. Sharangovich	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	16:27	0:00
M. Pospisil	C	0	1	1	1	5	1	+1	0	12:08	0:00
M. Coronato	RW	1	0	1	1	2	2	+1	0	11:44	2:26
K. Rooney	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	10:14	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	6:58	0:00
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	5	3	2	-2	0	16:46	0:00
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	16:45	0:00
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-2	0	12:06	0:00
M. Weegar	D	1	1	2	4	3	2	+1	2	22:07	1:41
J. Hanley	D	0	1	1	0	2	4	+2	0	19:55	0:00
B. Pachal	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	15:42	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	0	22:17	0:45
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	21:43	0:00
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	5	0	1	+1	0	16:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	29	26	3	.897	60:00	Win
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Kuzmenko	LW	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	0	18:38	6:11
M. Michkov	RW	0	1	1	6	0	0	-2	0	20:15	6:12
T. Foerster	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	17:21	2:36
B. Brink	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:31	1:39
N. Cates	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	16:05	2:01
S. Couturier	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	-1	0	14:37	0:36
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	21:01	6:09
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	18:33	5:16
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	15:37	1:43
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	12:28	0:09
J. Pelletier	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:08	0:09
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	5:54	0:09
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	4	1	2	0	0	23:43	5:33
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	20:40	2:18
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	19:57	0:09
C. York	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	-2	0	19:17	0:09
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	2	14:26	0:00
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	2	13:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	5	2	3	.400	9:32
I. Fedotov	28	26	2	.929	48:59	Loss

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDan Vladar PHI Faces CGY, his team until Apr 20250 saves on 0
Old teamJoel Farabee CGY Faces PHI, his team until Jan 20254 SOG
Old teamMorgan Frost CGY Faces PHI, his team until Jan 20252 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 2.8, PHI 2.9	CGY 6, PHI 3
Total goals	5.6	9
Shots on goal	CGY 25.9, PHI 28.9	CGY 34, PHI 29
Win chance	PHI 52%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.0	3	0.80	2	28%	1
PHI T. Konecny	2.6	2	0.96	0	32%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.5	1	0.57	0	24%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.3	6	0.71	1	24%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.3	4	0.65	2	14%	1
CGY B. Coleman	2.2	5	0.55	0	24%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.1	1	0.51	1	20%	1
CGY M. Backlund	2.1	0	0.45	0	18%	0
PHI S. Laughton	2.1	1	0.54	0	19%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.9	2	0.53	1	25%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.8	3	0.46	1	14%	1
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.8	0	0.77	2	24%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.8	2	0.49	0	12%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.8	3	0.54	1	20%	1
PHI B. Brink	1.7	1	0.54	1	18%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.7	3	0.51	2	18%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.7	1	0.44	0	9%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.6	2	0.50	1	22%	1
PHI A. Kuzmenko	1.6	2	0.66	2	27%	1
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.5	4	0.29	0	5%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.5	3	0.44	2	17%	2
CGY J. Farabee	1.5	4	0.37	0	16%	0
PHI C. York	1.3	1	0.32	0	8%	0
PHI J. Pelletier	1.2	0	0.32	0	12%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.2	0	0.23	0	4%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.1	1	0.31	1	9%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.1	0	0.30	0	5%	0
PHI R. Poehling	1.0	0	0.29	0	11%	0
CGY J. Bean	1.0	5	0.24	0	7%	0
CGY K. Bahl	0.9	0	0.26	0	5%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.8	0	0.12	1	7%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.7	2	0.32	0	6%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.7	1	0.14	1	4%	0
CGY K. Rooney	0.7	0	0.12	1	7%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.7	0	0.18	1	5%	0
PHI N. Deslauriers	0.6	0	0.09	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.