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Game Recap
CGY3
VGK3
Team Stats
CGYVGK
19Shots on goal28
2.13Expected goals3.18
36Shot attempts69
175v5 shots on goal25
0/2Power play1/4
21Hits13
15Blocked shots5
8Penalty minutes4
11Giveaways14
3Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 2.13 xGVGK 3.18 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Coleman | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:38 | 0:31 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 12:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:27 |
| M. Frost | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 11:17 | 2:04 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:42 | 1:29 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:03 | 2:00 |
| M. Gridin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 10:18 | 2:00 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 7:42 | 0:27 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:25 | 0:27 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:32 | 0:27 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:10 | 0:04 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5:43 | 0:04 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:46 | 0:04 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:02 | 0:31 |
| O. Määttä | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:46 | 0:00 |
| Z. Parekh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:03 | 2:00 |
| Y. Kuznetsov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 11:21 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 9:56 | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marner | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:16 | 7:03 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:38 | 6:30 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:32 | 6:40 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:02 | 6:41 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:27 | 6:37 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:11 | 2:06 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 9:47 | 2:19 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:41 | 2:12 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:35 | 0:42 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:19 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 7:38 | 0:42 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:20 | 0:42 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:20 | 2:05 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:38 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:18 | 2:19 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:02 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:31 | 0:06 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:05 | 0:06 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CGY
Line 1M. Backlund13:17J. Farabee13:43B. Coleman10:57
Line 2M. Frost13:35M. Coronato13:30M. Gridin13:09
Line 3R. Strome12:00Y. Sharangovich13:58V. Olofsson11:31
Line 4C. Zary8:55A. Klapka8:12M. Pospisil8:05
Pair 1Z. Whitecloud18:14K. Bahl17:18
Pair 2Z. Parekh15:43Y. Kuznetsov13:38
VGK
Line 1R. Smith13:40T. Hertl11:32C. Sissons12:14
Line 2N. Dowd12:37K. Kolesar12:04C. Smith9:01
Line 3B. Howden12:39P. Dorofeyev13:05J. Eichel12:56
Line 4M. Stone9:49M. Marner9:33I. Barbashev12:04
Pair 1N. Hanifin18:07R. Andersson17:44
Pair 2B. McNabb15:03S. Theodore15:13
Pair 3J. Lauzon14:20K. Korczak13:39
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 2.5, VGK 3.4 | CGY 3, VGK 3 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 23.7, VGK 31.2 | CGY 19, VGK 28 |
| Win chance | VGK 65% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.6 | 2 | 1.24 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 3.1 | 5 | 0.80 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.4 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.4 | 2 | 0.55 | 2 | 23% | 2 |
| VGK M. Marner | 2.2 | 4 | 1.16 | 3 | 29% | 2 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.2 | 2 | 1.08 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.1 | 0 | 0.51 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.0 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK R. Andersson | 1.9 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY V. Olofsson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY M. Gridin | 1.7 | 4 | 0.49 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.7 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.7 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.7 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.6 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.5 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.4 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.3 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.3 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CGY R. Strome | 1.3 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.3 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VGK C. Sissons | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK J. Lauzon | 1.0 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY Z. Parekh | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK C. Smith | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY Z. Whitecloud | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Kuznetsov | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY O. Määttä | 0.9 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK N. Dowd | 0.7 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 28 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.