Game Recap: CHI 2, PHI 3 (OT), November 23, 2024

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Game Recap

CHI2

Final/OTSat, Nov 23, 2024Every game that night

PHI3

PHI beat CHI 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.83 expected goals to 2.25. PHI outshot CHI 37 to 21. L. Reichel led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Laughton had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. A. Kolosov stopped 19 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
CHI	1	1	0	0	2
PHI	0	0	2	1	3

1st 11:29CHIL. Reichel0.13 xG
2nd 10:01CHIP. Maroon0.05 xG
3rd 7:27PHIS. Couturier0.11 xG
3rd 10:05PHIN. Cates0.05 xG
OT 1:06PHIM. MichkovPP0.19 xG

Team Stats

CHIPHI

21Shots on goal37

2.25Expected goals2.83

52Shot attempts70

185v5 shots on goal34

0/1Power play1/3

18Hits24

20Blocked shots18

6Penalty minutes2

6Giveaways12

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.25 xGPHI 2.83 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI21 on goal, 2 scored

PHI37 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Maroon	LW	1	1	2	1	2	0	+2	0	14:06	0:40
L. Reichel	LW	1	1	2	5	0	3	+2	0	12:54	1:00
C. Smith	C	0	1	1	2	0	2	+2	0	12:53	0:33
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:05	1:27
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	17:12	1:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	-2	0	16:19	0:00
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:32	0:00
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	14:59	0:00
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:58	1:20
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:32	0:36
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	14:00	1:24
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	13:21	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	23:03	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	3	0	4	+1	2	23:42	1:06
A. Martinez	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	19:52	0:54
T. Brodie	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	19:30	0:00
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	17:27	0:00
N. Allan	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	16:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Mrazek	37	34	3	.919	61:02	OT loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Konecny	RW	0	2	2	2	0	0	-1	0	22:51	3:47
S. Couturier	C	1	0	1	5	1	0	-1	0	20:48	3:57
M. Michkov	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:17	4:18
T. Foerster	RW	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	15:40	2:51
B. Brink	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	11:54	0:37
N. Cates	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	0	11:36	0:10
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	4	1	2	+1	0	16:47	0:29
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	13:59	0:00
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	-2	0	13:54	0:58
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	8	4	0	0	0	13:22	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	13:09	0:00
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	12:43	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	-2	0	25:10	2:13
R. Ristolainen	D	0	1	1	4	1	1	+2	0	22:25	0:01
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	24:05	2:12
C. York	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	20:00	0:11
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	13:45	0:00
H. Grans	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Kolosov	21	19	2	.905	61:06	Win
I. Fedotov	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.5, PHI 3.1	CHI 2, PHI 3
Total goals	5.6	5
Shots on goal	CHI 24.2, PHI 32.2	CHI 21, PHI 37
Win chance	PHI 60%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI O. Tippett	3.4	0	0.69	0	29%	0
PHI T. Konecny	3.3	2	1.10	2	38%	0
PHI S. Couturier	2.7	5	0.60	1	20%	1
CHI C. Bedard	2.4	0	0.81	0	23%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.2	0	0.53	0	22%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	2.2	0	0.57	1	11%	0
PHI J. Farabee	2.1	4	0.57	0	22%	0
CHI T. Hall	2.0	1	0.58	0	21%	0
PHI M. Michkov	1.9	1	0.76	1	24%	1
PHI T. Foerster	1.9	0	0.43	1	23%	0
PHI M. Frost	1.7	1	0.51	0	17%	0
PHI S. Laughton	1.7	8	0.45	0	16%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.6	0	0.48	0	18%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.6	0	0.51	0	21%	0
PHI C. York	1.6	1	0.41	0	9%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.5	3	0.58	0	21%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.5	2	0.39	0	18%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.4	2	0.42	1	16%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.4	4	0.27	1	4%	0
CHI C. Smith	1.4	2	0.32	1	15%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.3	0	0.24	0	4%	0
PHI R. Poehling	1.3	1	0.41	0	16%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	1.3	2	0.30	0	14%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.3	1	0.41	0	18%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.2	3	0.38	1	14%	1
CHI J. Anderson	1.2	0	0.32	0	13%	0
PHI E. Andrae	1.1	2	0.28	0	4%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.1	5	0.30	2	10%	1
CHI C. Murphy	1.1	0	0.26	1	7%	0
CHI A. Martinez	1.0	2	0.28	0	6%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.0	3	0.32	0	4%	0
CHI P. Maroon	0.8	1	0.25	2	9%	1
CHI L. Crevier	0.7	0	0.16	0	3%	0
CHI N. Allan	0.6	0	0.27	0	4%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.5	1	0.24	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.