Game Recap: CHI 0, UTA 6, October 1, 2026

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Game Recap

CHI0

FinalThu, Oct 1, 2026Every game that night

UTA6

UTA beat CHI 6-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.80 expected goals to 1.53. UTA outshot CHI 32 to 15. D. Guenther led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). K. Vejmelka stopped 15 of 15.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	0	0	0	0
UTA	2	3	1	6

1st 16:41UTAD. GuentherPP0.17 xG
1st 17:21UTAM. Carcone0.08 xG
2nd 9:47UTAN. Schmaltz0.09 xG
2nd 13:06UTAA. Lee0.13 xG
2nd 15:28UTAD. GuentherPP0.16 xG
3rd 12:50UTAD. But0.06 xG

Team Stats

CHIUTA

15Shots on goal32

1.53Expected goals3.80

41Shot attempts65

145v5 shots on goal28

0/3Power play2/3

12Hits42

11Blocked shots11

13Penalty minutes13

16Giveaways15

4Takeaways10

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 1.53 xGUTA 3.80 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI14 on goal, 0 scored

UTA32 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Kane	RW	0	1	1	-1	2	19:19	3:55
T. Bertuzzi	LW	2	0	0	-1	0	18:15	3:56
A. Frondell	C	3	1	1	-2	0	18:10	3:19
F. Nazar	C	0	1	0	-1	2	17:23	2:12
R. Greene	C	0	0	1	0	0	17:04	0:43
R. Kantserov	RW	0	0	0	-2	0	16:36	3:58
C. Smith	RW	1	3	0	0	0	14:13	0:00
J. Greenway	LW	1	2	2	0	0	13:52	0:00
T. Teravainen	C	1	0	0	-2	0	13:00	0:00
R. Donato	C	0	1	0	-1	5	11:54	0:50
O. Moore	C	2	1	0	-1	2	11:25	1:36
N. Lardis	LW	0	1	1	-1	0	10:18	1:27
B. Byram	D	0	0	1	-2	0	24:49	4:26
A. Levshunov	D	1	1	0	-1	2	19:51	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	1	0	2	-2	0	19:49	0:04
A. Vlasic	D	1	0	1	-2	0	18:18	0:00
S. Rinzel	D	2	0	0	-1	0	17:30	1:07
I. Cole	D	0	0	1	0	0	14:52	0:07

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	32	26	6	.813	60:00	Loss
S. Knight	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	0	2	2	4	0	1	+1	2	17:43	1:45
D. Guenther	RW	2	0	2	5	0	0	+1	0	14:33	1:45
M. Carcone	LW	1	1	2	2	6	0	+2	0	12:40	1:09
N. Schmaltz	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	18:12	1:39
V. Trocheck	C	0	1	1	1	6	1	+1	0	17:29	1:15
L. Cooley	C	0	1	1	0	4	1	+1	0	16:07	1:41
L. Crouse	LW	0	1	1	1	4	0	+1	0	15:15	0:04
K. Stenlund	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	12:58	0:00
D. But	LW	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	0	12:08	1:09
A. Lee	LW	1	0	1	4	1	1	+1	0	12:07	1:09
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	2	13:49	0:00
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	13:26	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	1	1	3	3	2	+1	0	22:57	1:45
N. Schmidt	D	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	18:56	0:00
A. Peeke	D	0	1	1	0	2	2	+2	2	17:05	0:00
D. Simashev	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+3	0	16:34	0:00
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	21:22	1:09
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	2	7	1	0	5	20:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	15	15	0	1.000	60:00	Win
S. Cossa	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1T. Bertuzzi14:19A. Frondell14:02P. Kane15:24

Line 2R. Greene14:40J. Greenway13:01C. Smith13:03

Line 3F. Nazar14:19R. Kantserov12:38T. Teravainen11:39

Line 4R. Donato11:04O. Moore9:49N. Lardis8:51

Pair 1W. Kaiser18:30A. Levshunov18:44

Pair 2A. Vlasic16:05B. Byram19:40

Pair 3I. Cole13:21S. Rinzel16:21

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz14:47C. Keller15:58V. Trocheck14:40

Line 2J. McBain12:20L. Crouse12:45B. Hayton12:51

Line 3D. Guenther12:44L. Cooley12:36A. Lee10:58

Line 4K. Stenlund10:40M. Carcone11:31D. But10:59

Pair 1M. Weegar18:36M. Sergachev18:22

Pair 2N. Schmidt16:19J. Marino18:31

Pair 3A. Peeke15:28D. Simashev15:25

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 15 overs hit (53%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
UTA D. Guenther	3.5	+133	-170	5	Over
CHI A. Frondell	2.5	+108	-125	3	Over
UTA C. Keller	2.5	-129	+104	4	Over
UTA M. Sergachev	2.5	+136	-160	3	Over
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.5	+128	-155	2	Under
CHI P. Kane	2.5	+130	-152	0	Under
UTA A. Lee	1.5	-160	+130	4	Over
UTA A. Peeke	1.5	+125	-160	0	Under
CHI B. Byram	1.5	-104	-125	0	Under
UTA B. Hayton	1.5	+110	-140	4	Over
CHI F. Nazar	1.5	-120	+108	0	Under
UTA L. Cooley	1.5	-185	+150	0	Under
UTA M. Weegar	1.5	-170	+130	2	Over
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.5	-135	+115	2	Over
UTA V. Trocheck	1.5	-125	+112	1	Under

5 of 35 overs hit (14%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
CHI A. Frondell	0.5	+310	-390	0	Under
UTA A. Lee	0.5	+300	-500	1	Over
CHI A. Levshunov	0.5	+1600	-2800	0	Under
UTA A. Peeke	0.5	+2000	-3500	0	Under
CHI A. Vlasic	0.5	+1600	-2800	0	Under
CHI B. Byram	0.5	+700	-1600	0	Under
UTA B. Hayton	0.5	+425	-800	0	Under
UTA C. Keller	0.5	+210	-240	0	Under
CHI C. Smith	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
UTA D. But	0.5	+450	-900	1	Over
UTA D. Guenther	0.5	+165	-200	2	Over
UTA D. Simashev	0.5	+1700	–	0	Under
CHI F. Nazar	0.5	+360	-450	0	Under
CHI I. Cole	0.5	+1900	-4000	0	Under
CHI J. Greenway	0.5	+1000	-1600	0	Under
UTA J. Marino	0.5	+800	-2500	0	Under
UTA J. McBain	0.5	+600	-900	0	Under
UTA K. Stenlund	0.5	+950	-1400	0	Under
UTA L. Cooley	0.5	+215	-280	0	Under
UTA L. Crouse	0.5	+320	-550	0	Under
UTA M. Carcone	0.5	+600	-900	1	Over
UTA M. Sergachev	0.5	+600	-750	0	Under
UTA M. Weegar	0.5	+700	-1400	0	Under
CHI N. Lardis	0.5	+450	-800	0	Under
UTA N. Schmaltz	0.5	+220	-250	1	Over
UTA N. Schmidt	0.5	+1600	-2500	0	Under
CHI O. Moore	0.5	+550	-1200	0	Under
CHI P. Kane	0.5	+260	-390	0	Under
CHI R. Donato	0.5	+500	-900	0	Under
CHI R. Greene	0.5	+750	-1600	0	Under
CHI S. Rinzel	0.5	+1000	-2000	0	Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi	0.5	+290	-360	0	Under
CHI T. Teravainen	0.5	+650	-1000	0	Under
UTA V. Trocheck	0.5	+290	-380	0	Under
CHI W. Kaiser	0.5	+2100	-3500	0	Under

5 of 15 overs hit (33%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
CHI A. Frondell	0.5	+210	-280	0	Under
UTA A. Lee	0.5	+320	-450	0	Under
CHI B. Byram	0.5	+185	-240	0	Under
UTA C. Keller	0.5	-135	+110	2	Over
UTA D. Guenther	0.5	+176	-215	0	Under
CHI F. Nazar	0.5	+300	-450	0	Under
UTA J. Marino	0.5	+225	-310	0	Under
UTA L. Cooley	0.5	+155	-200	1	Over
UTA M. Sergachev	0.5	-115	-115	1	Over
UTA M. Weegar	0.5	+215	-290	0	Under
UTA N. Schmaltz	0.5	+130	-160	0	Under
UTA N. Schmidt	0.5	+270	-380	1	Over
CHI P. Kane	0.5	+144	-180	0	Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi	0.5	+225	-300	0	Under
UTA V. Trocheck	0.5	+160	-210	1	Over

8 of 15 overs hit (53%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
UTA C. Keller	1.5	+186	-235	2	Over
CHI A. Frondell	0.5	+100	-130	0	Under
UTA A. Lee	0.5	+130	-160	1	Over
CHI B. Byram	0.5	+135	-170	0	Under
UTA D. Guenther	0.5	-160	+130	2	Over
CHI F. Nazar	0.5	+165	-205	0	Under
UTA J. Marino	0.5	+180	-230	0	Under
UTA L. Cooley	0.5	-135	+110	1	Over
UTA M. Sergachev	0.5	-145	+120	1	Over
UTA M. Weegar	0.5	+160	-195	0	Under
UTA N. Schmaltz	0.5	-150	+125	1	Over
UTA N. Schmidt	0.5	+225	-280	1	Over
CHI P. Kane	0.5	-132	+110	0	Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi	0.5	+115	-130	0	Under
UTA V. Trocheck	0.5	-110	-120	1	Over

3 of 12 overs hit (25%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
CHI A. Frondell	0.5	+290	-500	0	Under
CHI B. Byram	0.5	+330	-650	0	Under
UTA C. Keller	0.5	+140	-185	2	Over
UTA D. Guenther	0.5	+185	-260	2	Over
CHI F. Nazar	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
UTA L. Cooley	0.5	+200	-280	1	Over
UTA M. Sergachev	0.5	+165	-250	0	Under
UTA N. Schmaltz	0.5	+230	-350	0	Under
CHI P. Kane	0.5	+260	-400	0	Under
CHI S. Rinzel	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi	0.5	+350	-650	0	Under
UTA V. Trocheck	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
UTA K. Vejmelka	21.5	-125	-110	15	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
CHI I. Cole	1.5	+100	–	1	Under
UTA M. Sergachev	1.5	-105	–	2	Over
UTA M. Weegar	1.5	-130	–	1	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.7, UTA 3.7	CHI 0, UTA 6
Total goals	6.4	6
Shots on goal	CHI 24.0, UTA 30.3	CHI 15, UTA 32
Win chance	UTA 64%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	3.7	5	1.08	2	38%	2
UTA C. Keller	3.3	4	1.28	2	34%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	3.0	2	1.05	1	32%	1
UTA A. Lee	2.6	4	0.58	1	25%	1
UTA L. Cooley	2.6	0	0.96	1	34%	0
CHI P. Kane	2.4	0	0.82	0	24%	0
CHI A. Frondell	2.4	3	0.55	0	18%	0
UTA L. Crouse	2.4	1	0.69	1	29%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	2.1	3	0.87	1	15%	0
UTA M. Carcone	2.0	2	0.48	2	22%	1
UTA V. Trocheck	2.0	1	0.80	1	25%	0
UTA M. Weegar	1.9	2	0.51	0	12%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.8	0	0.51	0	19%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.8	2	0.63	0	26%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.6	4	0.39	0	15%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	1.5	2	0.26	0	5%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.5	0	0.43	0	19%	0
UTA D. But	1.4	1	0.27	1	12%	1
CHI B. Byram	1.4	0	0.45	0	10%	0
CHI N. Lardis	1.4	0	0.36	0	18%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.3	0	0.34	0	14%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.3	1	0.31	0	3%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.2	0	0.35	1	9%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.2	0	0.31	0	11%	0
UTA A. Peeke	1.2	0	0.23	1	6%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.2	1	0.51	0	18%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.1	0	0.30	1	12%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.0	1	0.22	0	5%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.0	1	0.24	0	3%	0
CHI O. Moore	0.9	2	0.30	0	9%	0
UTA D. Simashev	0.9	2	0.09	1	3%	0
CHI J. Greenway	0.8	1	0.21	0	9%	0
CHI C. Smith	0.8	1	0.19	0	9%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.8	1	0.45	0	6%	0
CHI I. Cole	0.7	0	0.21	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.