Game Recap: CHI 2, VGK 5, September 29, 2026

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Game Recap

CHI2

FinalTue, Sep 29, 2026Every game that night

VGK5

VGK beat CHI 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.45 expected goals to 2.20. VGK outshot CHI 37 to 26. J. Eichel led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Greenway had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.7. C. Hart stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	0	1	1	2
VGK	2	1	2	5

1st 10:30VGKV. OlofssonPP0.06 xG
1st 15:22VGKT. Connelly0.25 xG
2nd 12:23CHIJ. Greenway0.12 xG
2nd 15:12VGKJ. Eichel0.43 xG
3rd 4:04CHIP. Kane0.12 xG
3rd 4:43VGKN. Hanifin0.21 xG
3rd 17:27VGKM. StoneEN0.92 xG

Team Stats

CHIVGK

26Shots on goal37

2.20Expected goals4.45

46Shot attempts62

225v5 shots on goal31

0/2Power play1/3

14Hits23

10Blocked shots8

4Penalty minutes4

12Giveaways21

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.20 xGVGK 4.45 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI24 on goal, 2 scored

VGK37 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Kane	RW	1	0	1	4	2	0	-1	0	21:36	3:03
R. Greene	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	14:43	0:00
J. Greenway	LW	1	0	1	5	3	0	+1	0	14:08	0:00
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	18:01	1:36
A. Frondell	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	17:40	2:34
R. Kantserov	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	17:07	2:36
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	16:51	2:24
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	15:16	0:00
O. Moore	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:57	0:54
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	12:50	1:26
N. Lardis	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	11:44	1:24
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	5:23	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	20:37	0:03
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	0	25:08	3:07
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	20:01	0:00
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	19:14	0:00
S. Rinzel	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	18:16	0:53
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	12:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	36	32	4	.889	59:47	Loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	1	2	3	2	1	0	+1	0	18:00	3:53
I. Barbashev	LW	0	2	2	1	2	0	+2	0	14:27	0:00
M. Stone	RW	1	0	1	1	2	0	+2	0	17:11	3:36
V. Olofsson	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	13:57	1:23
N. Dowd	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	12:37	0:01
T. Connelly	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	-1	0	11:22	1:08
M. Gatcomb	C	0	1	1	3	8	0	+1	2	10:31	0:00
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	21:21	3:35
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:26	1:14
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	+1	0	17:16	0:00
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	4	2	0	+1	0	15:45	3:47
B. Bowman	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	10:58	1:23
S. Theodore	D	0	2	2	1	0	1	+2	0	21:22	3:41
B. McNabb	D	0	2	2	1	0	0	+2	0	18:45	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	1	0	1	3	0	2	+1	0	18:51	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	20:08	0:04
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	18:46	1:20
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	3	2	3	+1	0	17:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	26	24	2	.923	59:57	Win
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1P. Kane18:16R. Kantserov14:18O. Moore13:03

Line 2J. Greenway12:19R. Greene12:54C. Smith12:55

Line 3T. Bertuzzi14:11A. Frondell13:22A. Mangiapane5:20

Line 4F. Nazar13:43N. Lardis10:20R. Donato11:24

Pair 1A. Levshunov17:20W. Kaiser18:34

Pair 2B. Byram21:18A. Vlasic16:28

Pair 3I. Cole10:31S. Rinzel17:19

VGK

Line 1M. Marner15:31W. Karlsson14:32B. Howden15:46

Line 2I. Barbashev14:14J. Eichel13:02M. Stone12:58

Line 3T. Hertl11:51V. Olofsson12:29T. Connelly10:14

Line 4N. Dowd11:21M. Gatcomb10:31B. Bowman9:35

Pair 1P. Wotherspoon19:07R. Andersson17:17

Pair 2N. Hanifin16:50J. Lauzon15:19

Pair 3B. McNabb16:37S. Theodore16:21

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 15 overs hit (47%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
VGK J. Eichel	3.5	+120	-148	2	Under
CHI A. Frondell	2.5	+150	-165	1	Under
VGK M. Marner	2.5	+134	-165	4	Over
CHI P. Kane	2.5	+140	-170	4	Over
VGK T. Hertl	2.5	+143	-174	4	Over
CHI B. Byram	1.5	+105	-125	0	Under
CHI F. Nazar	1.5	-115	-110	3	Over
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	+105	-130	1	Under
VGK M. Stone	1.5	-170	+130	1	Under
VGK R. Andersson	1.5	-135	+115	2	Over
CHI S. Rinzel	1.5	+115	-140	2	Over
VGK S. Theodore	1.5	-140	+122	1	Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.5	+102	-120	0	Under
VGK V. Olofsson	1.5	+100	-125	2	Over
VGK W. Karlsson	1.5	-130	+105	1	Under

7 of 35 overs hit (20%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
CHI A. Frondell	0.5	+340	-500	0	Under
CHI A. Levshunov	0.5	+1650	-3500	0	Under
CHI A. Mangiapane	0.5	+675	-1400	0	Under
CHI A. Vlasic	0.5	+2200	-3500	0	Under
VGK B. Bowman	0.5	+500	-900	0	Under
CHI B. Byram	0.5	+725	-1600	0	Under
VGK B. Howden	0.5	+275	-360	0	Under
VGK B. McNabb	0.5	+1500	-2800	0	Under
CHI C. Smith	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
CHI F. Nazar	0.5	+340	-550	0	Under
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+260	-380	0	Under
CHI I. Cole	0.5	+3000	-5000	0	Under
VGK J. Eichel	0.5	+165	-190	1	Over
CHI J. Greenway	0.5	+1300	-2500	1	Over
VGK J. Lauzon	0.5	+2200	-3500	0	Under
VGK M. Gatcomb	0.5	+750	-1000	0	Under
VGK M. Marner	0.5	+180	-230	0	Under
VGK M. Stone	0.5	+175	-220	1	Over
VGK N. Dowd	0.5	+850	-1000	0	Under
VGK N. Hanifin	0.5	+1500	-2500	1	Over
CHI N. Lardis	0.5	+480	-900	0	Under
CHI O. Moore	0.5	+650	-900	0	Under
CHI P. Kane	0.5	+340	-475	1	Over
VGK P. Wotherspoon	0.5	+2200	-3500	0	Under
VGK R. Andersson	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
CHI R. Donato	0.5	+450	-800	0	Under
CHI R. Greene	0.5	+725	-1600	0	Under
CHI S. Rinzel	0.5	+1300	-2500	0	Under
VGK S. Theodore	0.5	+460	-900	0	Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi	0.5	+300	-400	0	Under
VGK T. Connelly	0.5	+550	-900	1	Over
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	+250	-370	0	Under
VGK V. Olofsson	0.5	+400	-650	1	Over
CHI W. Kaiser	0.5	+1700	-4000	0	Under
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+360	-550	0	Under

3 of 15 overs hit (20%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
CHI A. Frondell	0.5	+210	-260	0	Under
CHI B. Byram	0.5	+185	-250	0	Under
VGK B. Howden	0.5	+390	-525	0	Under
CHI F. Nazar	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+225	-280	2	Over
VGK J. Eichel	0.5	-105	-120	2	Over
VGK M. Marner	0.5	+100	-135	0	Under
VGK M. Stone	0.5	+140	-190	0	Under
CHI P. Kane	0.5	+146	-190	0	Under
VGK R. Andersson	0.5	+154	-205	0	Under
VGK S. Theodore	0.5	+110	-145	2	Over
CHI T. Bertuzzi	0.5	+250	-350	0	Under
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	+180	-240	0	Under
VGK V. Olofsson	0.5	+330	-475	0	Under
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+255	-300	0	Under

6 of 15 overs hit (40%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
CHI A. Frondell	0.5	+112	-132	0	Under
CHI B. Byram	0.5	+140	-175	0	Under
VGK B. Howden	0.5	+140	-170	0	Under
CHI F. Nazar	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+105	-130	2	Over
VGK J. Eichel	0.5	-220	+170	3	Over
VGK M. Marner	0.5	-200	+160	0	Under
VGK M. Stone	0.5	-160	+135	1	Over
CHI P. Kane	0.5	-115	-110	1	Over
VGK R. Andersson	0.5	+130	-155	0	Under
VGK S. Theodore	0.5	-125	+100	2	Over
CHI T. Bertuzzi	0.5	+120	-145	0	Under
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	-115	-115	0	Under
VGK V. Olofsson	0.5	+170	-200	1	Over
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+130	-145	0	Under

3 of 18 overs hit (17%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
CHI A. Frondell	0.5	+290	-500	0	Under
VGK B. Bowman	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CHI B. Byram	0.5	+330	-600	0	Under
CHI F. Nazar	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
VGK J. Eichel	0.5	+155	-200	1	Over
VGK M. Marner	0.5	+180	-240	0	Under
VGK M. Stone	0.5	+230	-300	0	Under
CHI N. Lardis	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CHI P. Kane	0.5	+250	-375	0	Under
VGK R. Andersson	0.5	+320	-700	0	Under
CHI R. Donato	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CHI S. Rinzel	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
VGK S. Theodore	0.5	+210	-290	1	Over
CHI T. Bertuzzi	0.5	+330	-550	0	Under
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	+290	-450	0	Under
VGK V. Olofsson	0.5	+475	-1400	1	Over
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
CHI S. Knight	25.5	-105	-112	32	Over
VGK C. Hart	20.5	-108	-115	24	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.6, VGK 3.6	CHI 2, VGK 5
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	CHI 23.3, VGK 30.2	CHI 26, VGK 37
Win chance	VGK 66%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.3	2	1.27	3	32%	1
VGK M. Marner	2.6	4	1.28	0	32%	0
CHI A. Frondell	2.5	1	0.54	0	17%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.4	1	1.11	1	33%	1
CHI P. Kane	2.3	4	0.75	1	22%	1
VGK T. Hertl	2.1	4	0.64	0	23%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.1	1	0.82	2	17%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	2.1	1	0.64	0	22%	0
VGK R. Andersson	1.9	2	0.50	0	14%	0
VGK V. Olofsson	1.8	2	0.43	1	20%	1
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.8	0	0.60	0	25%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.7	3	0.47	0	17%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.7	1	0.65	2	22%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.7	3	0.55	0	24%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.5	3	0.44	1	10%	1
CHI R. Donato	1.5	2	0.42	0	18%	0
CHI N. Lardis	1.4	2	0.36	0	18%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	1.4	2	0.24	0	5%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.3	1	0.43	0	13%	0
CHI B. Byram	1.3	0	0.41	0	10%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.3	1	0.32	1	13%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.3	1	0.33	2	7%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.2	1	0.30	0	3%	0
VGK M. Gatcomb	1.2	3	0.20	1	12%	0
VGK P. Wotherspoon	1.0	1	0.37	0	4%	0
VGK N. Dowd	1.0	0	0.29	1	13%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	1.0	3	0.16	0	4%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	0.9	0	0.20	1	5%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	0.9	0	0.22	0	3%	0
CHI A. Mangiapane	0.9	1	0.26	0	13%	0
CHI O. Moore	0.8	2	0.26	0	8%	0
CHI C. Smith	0.8	1	0.17	0	8%	0
CHI J. Greenway	0.7	5	0.18	1	8%	1
CHI I. Cole	0.7	0	0.21	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.