Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
COL3
PHI2
COL beat PHI 3-2, with the chances close: 3.07 expected goals to 2.57. C. Makar led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Annunen stopped 24 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
- 2nd 8:30COLC. Makar0.10 xG
- 2nd 15:08COLC. MakarPP0.03 xG
- 3rd 8:34COLC. Mittelstadt0.44 xG
- 3rd 11:48PHIO. Tippett0.05 xG
- 3rd 13:32PHIT. Foerster0.45 xG
Team Stats
COLPHI
29Shots on goal26
3.07Expected goals2.57
68Shot attempts54
215v5 shots on goal20
1/4Power play0/3
14Hits21
12Blocked shots26
10Penalty minutes12
15Giveaways13
5Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
COL 3.07 xGPHI 2.57 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:36 | 5:08 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:31 | 4:16 |
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 22:39 | 3:52 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:21 | 1:53 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:03 | 3:14 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 | 1:05 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:00 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:00 | 0:00 |
| M. Wood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:34 | 0:00 |
| I. Ivan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:25 | 0:10 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:50 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 27:04 | 4:16 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:11 | 1:22 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 21:12 | 0:10 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:38 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:29 | 0:00 |
| O. Kylington | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:26 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Annunen | 26 | 24 | 2 | .923 | 60:00 | Win |
| K. Mandolese | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:05 | 2:58 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:05 | 2:32 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:30 | 1:22 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:19 | 1:54 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:47 | 3:03 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:57 | 0:17 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 | 2:12 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:32 | 0:46 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:00 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10:27 | 0:00 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 10:07 | 0:00 |
| A. Richard | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:04 | 1:05 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 31:07 | 2:52 |
| H. Grans | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 16:11 | 0:00 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:30 | 0:23 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 15:47 | 0:00 |
| E. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:11 | 0:00 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:28 | 0:53 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kolosov | 29 | 26 | 3 | .897 | 57:55 | Loss |
| I. Fedotov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL 3.4, PHI 2.9 | COL 3, PHI 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | COL 28.4, PHI 28.8 | COL 29, PHI 26 |
| Win chance | COL 59% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.1 | 2 | 1.68 | 1 | 43% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 3.1 | 3 | 0.66 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 3.0 | 3 | 1.04 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| COL M. Rantanen | 3.0 | 4 | 1.35 | 2 | 43% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.6 | 2 | 0.96 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.6 | 1 | 0.98 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.5 | 5 | 1.19 | 2 | 24% | 2 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.5 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 2.0 | 3 | 0.56 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| COL C. Mittelstadt | 1.8 | 2 | 0.82 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| COL M. Wood | 1.8 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI J. Farabee | 1.8 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI S. Laughton | 1.7 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| COL J. Drouin | 1.7 | 0 | 0.83 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.7 | 2 | 0.64 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.6 | 3 | 0.39 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 1.6 | 3 | 0.73 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.4 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.4 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL I. Ivan | 1.3 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.1 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI A. Richard | 1.1 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| COL O. Kylington | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL N. Kovalenko | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI E. Johnson | 0.8 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.7 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.