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Game Recap
COL6
FinalTue, Nov 10, 2026Every game that night
TOR3

COL beat TOR 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.00 expected goals to 2.34. G. Landeskog led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Roslovic had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. M. Blackwood stopped 28 of 31.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
COL2136
TOR1113
  1. 1st 3:33TORD. Raddysh0.01 xG
  2. 1st 16:09COLB. Nelson0.04 xG
  3. 1st 17:26COLG. Landeskog0.50 xG
  4. 2nd 3:31COLD. Toews0.01 xG
  5. 2nd 19:31TORE. Cowan0.05 xG
  6. 3rd 4:11TORJ. Roslovic0.16 xG
  7. 3rd 5:02COLG. Landeskog0.18 xG
  8. 3rd 17:15COLA. Lehkonen0.19 xG
  9. 3rd 17:30COLM. NecasEN0.77 xG

Team Stats

COLTOR
28Shots on goal31
4.00Expected goals2.34
58Shot attempts61
235v5 shots on goal30
0/2Power play0/1
14Hits26
16Blocked shots18
2Penalty minutes4
14Giveaways11
4Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 4.00 xGTOR 2.34 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdTOR goal, 3:33COL goal, 16:09COL goal, 17:26COL goal, 3:31TOR goal, 19:31TOR goal, 4:11COL goal, 5:02COL goal, 17:15COL goal, 17:30

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL27 on goal, 6 scored
TOR30 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
G. LandeskogLW2024100015:161:07
M. NecasC101210+1219:302:29
A. LehkonenLW101401+2018:521:24
N. KadriC011510+1015:512:31
B. NelsonC101101+1014:551:26
L. O'ConnorRW0110130013:560:00
T. HughesRW011010+1013:482:34
P. KellyC0111110013:460:00
J. SchwartzLW011000+1012:591:31
N. RoyC0111000011:370:00
N. MacKinnonC000300+1020:382:53
F. SvechkovC000022+1011:470:00
C. MakarD022102+1023:233:00
D. ToewsD112200+5022:061:01
S. MalinskiD011212+3019:500:04
B. KulakD000101-1020:350:00
B. BurnsD000100-1016:110:00
N. JuulsenD000053-1013:340:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
M. Blackwood31283.90359:26Win
S. Wedgewood000–0:00

TOR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
E. CowanRW112430+1019:040:33
J. RoslovicC112500+1018:201:34
A. MatthewsC011433+1017:471:27
N. PaulLW011200-1015:340:42
G. McKennaLW011101-1213:140:33
W. NylanderRW000000-4015:541:27
R. TverbergC000232-2015:310:26
J. TavaresC000100-3014:551:18
T. BluegerC000220-1014:240:00
B. DuhaimeLW0000320213:180:00
D. JoshuaC000020-1011:030:00
Z. MacEwenRW000142009:130:00
D. RaddyshD112211-1021:361:41
J. McCabeD0001120021:280:00
O. Ekman-LarssonD000120-1021:170:19
T. StecherD000100-1019:160:00
C. TanevD000104-2018:450:00
D. MermisD000321-1015:310:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Bobrovsky27225.81559:50Loss
A. Stolarz000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1M. Necas16:37N. MacKinnon17:01A. Lehkonen16:37
Line 2N. Kadri13:10G. Landeskog13:58N. Roy11:37
Line 3L. O'Connor12:57P. Kelly12:24F. Svechkov11:47
Line 4B. Nelson12:05J. Schwartz11:11T. Hughes10:40
Pair 1B. Burns15:09N. Juulsen13:29
Pair 2S. Malinski19:27D. Toews20:02
Pair 3B. Kulak19:08C. Makar19:01

TOR

Line 1E. Cowan17:47J. Roslovic16:21A. Matthews15:59
Line 2W. Nylander13:43R. Tverberg13:45J. Tavares13:27
Line 3T. Blueger12:21B. Duhaime12:29Z. MacEwen8:58
Line 4G. McKenna12:22N. Paul12:49D. Joshua9:44
Pair 1D. Raddysh19:14J. McCabe18:39
Pair 2T. Stecher17:36D. Mermis15:16
Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson19:29C. Tanev16:21

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 19 overs hit (42%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
TOR A. Matthews3.5+110-1354Over
COL N. MacKinnon3.5-120+1053Under
COL C. Makar2.5-115+1051Under
TOR D. Raddysh2.5+105-1202Under
TOR J. Tavares2.5+130-1461Under
COL M. Necas2.5-105-1202Under
COL N. Kadri2.5+108-1155Over
COL T. Hughes2.5+137-1800Under
TOR W. Nylander2.5-125+1000Under
COL A. Lehkonen1.5-135+1304Over
COL B. Burns1.5-105-1131Under
COL B. Nelson1.5-118+1051Under
COL D. Toews1.5-125+1202Over
TOR E. Cowan1.5-108-1054Over
COL G. Landeskog1.5-108-1104Over
TOR G. McKenna1.5-104-1051Under
TOR J. Roslovic1.5-190+1495Over
COL J. Schwartz1.5+100-1300Under
COL S. Malinski1.5-140+1202Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • MilestoneDakota Joshua TOR 3 points from 100Not yet: 0 SOG
  • Old teamNicolas Roy COL First game back in Toronto, his team until Mar 20261 A, 1 SOG
  • HometownT.J. Hughes COL Plays near home (born in Hamilton)1 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCOL 3.9, TOR 3.0COL 6, TOR 3
Total goals6.99
Shots on goalCOL 33.4, TOR 25.9COL 28, TOR 31
Win chanceCOL 62%COL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
COL N. MacKinnon3.931.50041%0
TOR A. Matthews3.441.03140%0
COL C. Makar2.811.07227%0
TOR W. Nylander2.701.03036%0
COL N. Kadri2.750.77126%0
COL T. Hughes2.600.67126%0
COL M. Necas2.521.11130%1
TOR D. Raddysh2.420.69213%1
TOR J. Roslovic2.350.66226%1
TOR J. Tavares2.210.76030%0
COL A. Lehkonen2.140.73130%1
COL S. Malinski1.920.4319%0
COL B. Nelson1.810.60125%1
TOR G. McKenna1.810.50118%0
COL G. Landeskog1.840.61224%2
TOR E. Cowan1.740.50218%1
COL J. Schwartz1.600.48119%0
COL D. Toews1.620.53211%1
COL B. Burns1.510.2907%0
COL P. Kelly1.310.37114%0
COL B. Kulak1.310.2706%0
TOR N. Paul1.320.33117%0
COL L. O'Connor1.200.30112%0
TOR T. Blueger1.220.31011%0
TOR Z. MacEwen1.110.1708%0
COL N. Roy1.010.35113%0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson1.010.2805%0
TOR D. Joshua0.900.30014%0
TOR B. Duhaime0.900.1809%0
TOR J. McCabe0.910.2704%0
COL F. Svechkov0.800.2809%0
TOR T. Stecher0.810.1604%0
TOR D. Mermis0.730.1204%0
COL N. Juulsen0.500.1502%0
TOR C. Tanev0.510.1802%0

Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.