Game Recap: DAL 2, OTT 3, January 12, 2025

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Game Recap

DAL2

FinalSun, Jan 12, 2025Every game that night

OTT3

OTT beat DAL 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.39 expected goals to 2.38. E. Dadonov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). L. Meriläinen stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	1	0	1	2
OTT	0	2	1	3

1st 4:31DALJ. Robertson0.21 xG
2nd 3:14OTTJ. Norris0.13 xG
2nd 3:53OTTT. Stützle0.19 xG
3rd 0:21OTTM. Highmore0.14 xG
3rd 19:07DALE. DadonovPP0.22 xG

Team Stats

DALOTT

26Shots on goal27

2.38Expected goals4.39

50Shot attempts59

185v5 shots on goal24

1/4Power play0/3

9Hits24

13Blocked shots10

6Penalty minutes8

22Giveaways18

3Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.38 xGOTT 4.39 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL25 on goal, 2 scored

OTT27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Dadonov	LW	1	1	2	1	0	1	+1	0	13:38	2:03
J. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	19:36	4:56
R. Hintz	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	18:26	4:43
L. Stankoven	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	14:05	2:12
C. Blackwell	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	12:24	0:21
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	-2	0	21:27	4:23
M. Duchene	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	18:58	2:04
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	0	18:27	4:00
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	14:23	0:47
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:20	2:01
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:33	0:00
M. Blümel	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:44	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	2	25:57	5:15
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	25:14	1:22
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	19:22	0:11
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	14:39	0:10
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	2	14:09	0:00
M. Dumba	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	12:40	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. DeSmith	27	24	3	.889	56:58	Loss
J. Oettinger	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Pinto	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	21:50	2:08
J. Norris	C	1	0	1	3	7	1	+1	2	19:15	3:08
C. Giroux	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	17:52	2:20
T. Stützle	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	15:31	3:29
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	15:29	3:16
N. Cousins	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	13:16	0:00
M. Highmore	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	13:10	0:00
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	2	18:52	2:06
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	18:49	3:17
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:55	2:16
Z. MacEwen	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	7:14	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	7:06	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	1	1	3	0	4	+2	0	26:14	3:30
N. Jensen	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	19:51	0:19
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+2	2	22:58	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	22:17	2:06
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	2	11:39	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Meriläinen	26	24	2	.923	60:00	Win
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayClaude Giroux OTT Turns 37 that day1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 3.3, OTT 2.7	DAL 2, OTT 3
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	DAL 29.1, OTT 27.9	DAL 26, OTT 27
Win chance	DAL 58%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.4	2	0.75	0	29%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.6	3	0.72	0	29%	0
DAL J. Robertson	2.4	4	0.86	1	30%	1
DAL L. Stankoven	2.3	1	0.45	1	15%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.1	1	0.43	0	10%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.1	2	0.64	0	12%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.1	1	0.46	1	21%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.0	1	0.70	1	24%	0
DAL J. Benn	2.0	2	0.75	0	25%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.0	2	0.69	1	31%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.9	2	0.79	0	29%	0
OTT T. Stützle	1.9	1	0.78	1	24%	1
OTT J. Sanderson	1.8	3	0.40	1	7%	0
OTT J. Norris	1.8	3	0.53	1	27%	1
DAL T. Harley	1.8	3	0.47	0	11%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.7	2	0.62	1	22%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.6	1	0.48	2	19%	1
OTT R. Greig	1.5	0	0.38	0	17%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.5	3	0.30	1	12%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.3	1	0.25	0	5%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.3	1	0.32	0	12%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.3	2	0.30	0	7%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.3	0	0.38	0	13%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.2	0	0.23	1	12%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.2	0	0.29	0	15%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.1	2	0.22	0	5%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.0	1	0.23	1	4%	0
DAL M. Blümel	1.0	0	0.18	0	10%	0
OTT T. Kleven	0.9	1	0.10	0	4%	0
DAL M. Dumba	0.9	1	0.13	0	4%	0
OTT M. Highmore	0.7	2	0.17	1	7%	1
DAL O. Bäck	0.7	1	0.31	0	11%	0
OTT Z. MacEwen	0.7	2	0.10	0	5%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.7	1	0.08	0	3%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	0	0.18	0	2%	0
OTT Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	1	0.11	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.