Game Recap: DAL 1, PIT 2 (SO), October 10, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

DAL1

Final/SOSat, Oct 10, 2026Every game that night

PIT2

PIT beat DAL 2-1 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.11 expected goals to 2.44. T. Harley had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. A. Silovs stopped 24 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
DAL	0	0	1	0	1
PIT	0	0	1	1	2

3rd 1:57PITC. Dewar0.07 xG
3rd 19:30DALT. Seguin0.10 xG

Team Stats

DALPIT

25Shots on goal20

2.44Expected goals3.11

53Shot attempts68

135v5 shots on goal11

0/3Power play0/5

23Hits10

25Blocked shots15

10Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways20

1Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.44 xGPIT 3.11 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL24 on goal, 1 scored

PIT21 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Robertson	LW	0	1	1	3	2	0	+1	0	21:36	4:45
T. Seguin	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	13:14	0:10
M. Rantanen	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	4	23:09	4:35
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	21:20	4:40
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	20:43	4:23
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	18:36	0:02
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	14:14	0:00
A. Hyry	RW	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	0	13:01	0:00
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	11:29	0:26
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:53	0:06
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	10:30	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	8:27	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	2	30:24	4:25
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	7	1	3	-1	0	25:08	0:26
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	20:19	0:11
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	16:27	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	2	13:57	0:06
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	12:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	20	19	1	.950	63:52	OT loss
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Lizotte	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	12:34	0:00
C. Dewar	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	12:14	0:00
S. Crosby	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	22:42	6:03
R. Rakell	RW	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	2	21:44	6:12
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	20:28	2:52
E. Malkin	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	19:54	6:12
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	19:28	5:52
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:54	2:33
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:39	2:39
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	11:29	2:48
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	11:28	0:00
E. Soderblom	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:22	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	27:10	5:40
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	+1	0	21:27	3:06
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	21:08	0:13
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	17:45	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:44	0:05
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	12:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	25	24	1	.960	64:52	Win
S. Murashov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1M. Rantanen13:59W. Johnston12:49S. Steel13:27

Line 2R. Hintz12:03J. Robertson13:31J. Benn10:47

Line 3T. Seguin10:49J. Hryckowian10:01A. Hyry8:49

Line 4O. Bäck9:01C. Blackwell9:27R. Faksa5:12

Pair 1T. Harley19:44N. Lundkvist15:04

Pair 2M. Heiskanen17:08E. Lindell14:02

Pair 3T. Myers9:53L. Bichsel11:04

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby13:39R. Rakell13:52B. Rust12:39

Line 2E. Malkin12:00E. Chinakhov11:17T. Novak11:13

Line 3C. Dewar9:53B. Lizotte9:35N. Robertson10:13

Line 4H. Lapierre8:31B. Kindel8:34E. Soderblom8:16

Pair 1E. Karlsson16:18D. Carlile13:51

Pair 2S. Girard17:20K. Korczak12:47

Pair 3K. Letang14:23S. Stastney12:29

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 19 overs hit (37%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
DAL J. Robertson	3.5	+112	-140	3	Under
PIT B. Rust	2.5	+140	-160	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	2.5	+140	-155	2	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	2.5	+126	-155	4	Over
DAL R. Hintz	2.5	+135	-160	1	Under
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	+118	-135	1	Under
PIT S. Crosby	2.5	+142	-140	1	Under
DAL W. Johnston	2.5	+100	-115	1	Under
DAL A. Hyry	1.5	-140	+110	1	Under
PIT B. Kindel	1.5	-170	+130	2	Over
PIT E. Chinakhov	1.5	-155	+132	2	Over
PIT E. Malkin	1.5	-180	+140	2	Over
PIT K. Letang	1.5	+115	–	1	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	1.5	-150	+130	0	Under
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.5	+100	-130	0	Under
DAL S. Steel	1.5	+115	-150	2	Over
DAL T. Harley	1.5	-104	+100	7	Over
PIT T. Novak	1.5	+115	–	1	Under
DAL T. Seguin	1.5	-130	+105	2	Over

2 of 34 overs hit (6%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
DAL A. Hyry	0.5	+700	-1000	0	Under
PIT B. Kindel	0.5	+350	-475	0	Under
PIT B. Lizotte	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
PIT B. Rust	0.5	+265	-350	0	Under
DAL C. Blackwell	0.5	+850	-2000	0	Under
PIT C. Dewar	0.5	+900	-2000	1	Over
PIT D. Carlile	0.5	+1700	-4000	0	Under
PIT E. Chinakhov	0.5	+400	-550	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	+525	-1000	0	Under
DAL E. Lindell	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
PIT E. Malkin	0.5	+270	-390	0	Under
PIT H. Lapierre	0.5	+800	-2800	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+350	-500	0	Under
DAL J. Hryckowian	0.5	+425	-800	0	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	+130	-150	0	Under
PIT K. Korczak	0.5	+1900	-10000	0	Under
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+1400	-4000	0	Under
DAL L. Bichsel	0.5	+2200	-5000	0	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	+185	-230	0	Under
DAL N. Lundkvist	0.5	+1600	-3500	0	Under
PIT N. Robertson	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
DAL O. Bäck	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
DAL R. Faksa	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+235	-270	0	Under
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	+250	-350	0	Under
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	+240	-275	0	Under
PIT S. Girard	0.5	+1700	-4000	0	Under
DAL S. Steel	0.5	+425	-500	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
DAL T. Myers	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
PIT T. Novak	0.5	+400	-750	0	Under
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+310	-400	1	Over
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	+140	-180	0	Under

2 of 18 overs hit (11%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
PIT B. Kindel	0.5	+320	-650	0	Under
PIT B. Rust	0.5	+200	-250	0	Under
PIT E. Chinakhov	0.5	+330	-375	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	+126	-130	0	Under
DAL E. Lindell	0.5	+210	-325	0	Under
PIT E. Malkin	0.5	+125	-155	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+260	-450	0	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	-105	-120	1	Over
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+235	–	0	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	-108	-110	1	Over
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	-115	+100	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+125	-155	0	Under
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	+210	-235	0	Under
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	+122	-140	0	Under
DAL S. Steel	0.5	+270	-500	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+180	-220	0	Under
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+230	-275	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	+135	-160	0	Under

2 of 18 overs hit (11%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
DAL J. Robertson	1.5	+160	-200	1	Under
PIT B. Kindel	0.5	+150	-190	0	Under
PIT B. Rust	0.5	-105	-111	0	Under
PIT E. Chinakhov	0.5	+150	-160	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	-113	+110	0	Under
DAL E. Lindell	0.5	+165	-220	0	Under
PIT E. Malkin	0.5	-132	+120	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+125	-155	0	Under
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+195	–	0	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	-148	+120	1	Over
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	-230	+180	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	-155	+125	0	Under
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	-105	-105	0	Under
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	-160	+140	0	Under
DAL S. Steel	0.5	+130	-160	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+130	-155	0	Under
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+112	-130	1	Over
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	-180	+150	0	Under

0 of 15 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
PIT B. Kindel	0.5	+320	-700	Under
PIT B. Rust	0.5	+340	-525	Under
PIT E. Chinakhov	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	+220	-260	Under
PIT E. Malkin	0.5	+225	-260	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	+155	-170	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	+180	-200	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	+170	-185	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+240	-280	Under
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	+280	-450	Under
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	+210	-275	Under
PIT T. Novak	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	+190	-260	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
PIT A. Silovs	26.5	-115	-115	24	Under
DAL J. Oettinger	22.5	+100	-128	19	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 3.3, PIT 2.9	DAL 1, PIT 2
Total goals	6.2	3
Shots on goal	DAL 25.6, PIT 26.3	DAL 25, PIT 20
Win chance	DAL 57%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	2.9	3	1.04	1	36%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	1	0.72	0	27%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.5	1	0.99	0	37%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.5	1	0.96	0	30%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.4	0	0.75	0	29%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.3	2	0.75	0	15%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.2	4	1.19	0	35%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.1	2	0.75	0	24%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.0	1	0.81	0	29%	0
PIT B. Kindel	2.0	2	0.48	0	19%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.0	0	0.77	1	14%	0
PIT E. Chinakhov	1.9	2	0.48	0	20%	0
DAL T. Seguin	1.6	2	0.59	1	23%	1
PIT T. Novak	1.6	1	0.52	0	20%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.5	7	0.48	0	12%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.5	1	0.41	0	9%	0
PIT N. Robertson	1.5	2	0.33	0	17%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.3	2	0.46	0	14%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.2	3	0.29	1	12%	1
DAL J. Benn	1.2	1	0.51	0	18%	0
DAL A. Hyry	1.2	1	0.25	0	13%	0
DAL T. Myers	1.1	0	0.20	0	4%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.1	1	0.39	0	16%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.1	0	0.26	0	5%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.1	0	0.33	0	7%	0
PIT D. Carlile	1.0	0	0.18	0	7%	0
PIT S. Girard	0.9	2	0.32	0	5%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	0.9	0	0.22	0	9%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	0.9	0	0.29	1	12%	0
PIT H. Lapierre	0.8	0	0.30	0	9%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.8	0	0.26	0	8%	0
PIT K. Korczak	0.7	0	0.24	0	3%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.7	1	0.18	0	7%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.7	1	0.21	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.