Game Recap: DAL 4, TOR 1, January 14, 2025

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Game Recap

DAL4

FinalTue, Jan 14, 2025Every game that night

TOR1

DAL beat TOR 4-1, with the chances close: 2.86 expected goals to 2.15. L. Stankoven led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). O. Ekman-Larsson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. J. Oettinger stopped 27 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	1	1	2	4
TOR	1	0	0	1

1st 4:15TORA. Matthews0.06 xG
1st 8:33DALL. Stankoven0.49 xG
2nd 12:35DALM. BourquePP0.23 xG
3rd 1:06DALM. DuchenePP0.10 xG
3rd 2:54DALL. Stankoven0.09 xG

Team Stats

DALTOR

23Shots on goal28

2.86Expected goals2.15

48Shot attempts56

215v5 shots on goal22

2/3Power play0/2

13Hits35

8Blocked shots8

4Penalty minutes6

17Giveaways12

4Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.86 xGTOR 2.15 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL22 on goal, 4 scored

TOR28 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Duchene	C	1	2	3	1	0	0	+2	0	21:54	3:56
L. Stankoven	C	2	1	3	4	0	0	+2	0	15:22	0:58
J. Robertson	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	21:11	3:59
W. Johnston	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	21:05	3:54
S. Steel	C	0	1	1	3	2	0	+1	4	19:12	1:03
M. Bourque	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	13:27	1:03
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	17:43	3:23
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:51	0:00
E. Dadonov	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	14:45	1:06
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:00	0:00
M. Blümel	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	4:18	0:00
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	2:27	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	24:15	3:32
T. Harley	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	21:14	1:28
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	20:56	0:00
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	18:20	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:52	0:00
M. Dumba	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	15:08	0:38

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	28	27	1	.964	60:00	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	21:58	2:54
A. Matthews	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	19:42	2:50
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	22:00	2:54
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	19:59	2:51
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	4	17:08	2:50
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	0	15:54	1:06
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	14:57	1:09
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	14:44	1:10
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	+1	0	10:55	0:00
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	10:55	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	10:13	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	5:16	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	5	0	1	+1	2	21:40	1:10
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	21:17	1:06
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	18:48	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	3	4	1	-1	0	18:38	0:00
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:44	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	15:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	23	19	4	.826	58:16	Loss
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamChris Tanev TOR Faces DAL, his team until Jun 20244 SOG
HometownWyatt Johnston DAL Plays in his hometown1 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 3.2, TOR 2.9	DAL 4, TOR 1
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	DAL 30.6, TOR 27.4	DAL 23, TOR 28
Win chance	DAL 55%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.5	2	0.98	1	41%	1
TOR W. Nylander	2.9	2	0.89	0	34%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.7	1	0.80	0	30%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.7	1	0.72	1	28%	0
DAL J. Robertson	2.5	2	0.86	1	29%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.3	1	0.45	0	23%	0
DAL L. Stankoven	2.2	4	0.44	3	14%	2
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.1	1	0.62	1	10%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.1	2	1.09	1	28%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.1	0	0.70	0	30%	0
DAL J. Benn	2.1	2	0.75	0	24%	0
DAL M. Duchene	2.0	1	0.77	3	28%	1
DAL T. Harley	1.9	2	0.47	1	10%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.7	2	0.52	0	8%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.6	1	0.55	0	23%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.6	1	0.47	0	18%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.5	5	0.33	0	6%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.5	1	0.34	0	17%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.5	3	0.47	0	13%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.4	3	0.19	0	4%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.3	2	0.24	0	4%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.3	1	0.31	1	12%	1
DAL E. Lindell	1.3	1	0.29	0	6%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.2	0	0.24	0	11%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.2	3	0.36	1	12%	0
TOR C. Timmins	0.9	0	0.25	0	4%	0
DAL M. Blümel	0.9	1	0.17	0	9%	0
TOR D. Kampf	0.9	0	0.22	0	9%	0
DAL M. Dumba	0.9	0	0.13	0	4%	0
TOR C. Dewar	0.9	0	0.17	0	8%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.8	1	0.18	0	9%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	0	0.09	0	2%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.7	0	0.29	0	10%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.6	4	0.22	0	3%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	1	0.17	0	2%	0
TOR R. Reaves	0.4	0	0.12	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.