Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
DAL2
FinalMon, Dec 2, 2024Every game that night
UTA1

DAL beat UTA 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.17 expected goals to 3.03. UTA outshot DAL 37 to 21. M. Carcone had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. C. DeSmith stopped 36 of 37.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
DAL0202
UTA0011
  1. 2nd 7:07DALE. DadonovPP0.11 xG
  2. 2nd 19:17DALJ. Benn0.11 xG
  3. 3rd 6:57UTAN. Schmaltz0.15 xG

Team Stats

DALUTA
21Shots on goal37
2.17Expected goals3.03
60Shot attempts67
195v5 shots on goal33
1/3Power play0/2
11Hits19
21Blocked shots23
4Penalty minutes6
21Giveaways24
13Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.17 xGUTA 3.03 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdDAL goal, 7:07DAL goal, 19:17UTA goal, 6:57

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL21 on goal, 2 scored
UTA36 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. BennLW1011100015:220:46
M. DucheneC0113000015:181:17
E. DadonovLW1012110014:331:12
S. SteelC0110110014:010:00
R. HintzC0002010019:091:09
J. RobertsonLW0001020018:581:14
W. JohnstonC0002020018:271:06
L. StankovenC0001010015:381:16
M. MarchmentLW0001000214:071:17
O. BäckC0000000011:110:00
M. BourqueC0001010011:000:00
C. BlackwellC0000100010:170:00
M. HeiskanenD011013-1024:422:26
E. LindellD000121+1023:060:00
T. HarleyD0002010020:530:20
I. LyubushkinD0002220019:070:00
N. LundkvistD0002030217:210:07
M. DumbaD0000220012:500:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. DeSmith37361.97360:00Win
J. Oettinger000–0:00

UTA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
N. SchmaltzC101102+1018:060:58
M. MaccelliLW011001+1015:150:28
N. BjugstadC011140+1014:080:00
C. KellerRW0003000217:141:04
D. GuentherRW000421-1016:311:02
L. CooleyC000300-1015:410:37
B. HaytonC0001010015:350:00
A. KerfootC0003110014:240:00
M. CarconeLW0004110013:380:01
J. McBainC000160-1013:080:00
K. StenlundC0001010013:060:00
L. CrouseLW0002000012:510:00
O. MaattaD000105+1024:030:07
M. SergachevD000222-1422:481:05
M. KesselringD0004110020:160:00
I. ColeD0002050020:120:03
J. VälimäkiD0003010018:400:00
R. BortuzzoD0001210011:150:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
K. Vejmelka21192.90557:48Loss
J. Stauber000–0:00

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreDAL 3.2, UTA 3.0DAL 2, UTA 1
Total goals6.23
Shots on goalDAL 29.5, UTA 27.1DAL 21, UTA 37
Win chanceDAL 53%DAL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
DAL W. Johnston2.520.65027%0
UTA C. Keller2.330.88030%0
DAL J. Robertson2.210.76028%0
UTA D. Guenther2.140.69026%0
DAL M. Heiskanen2.000.62111%0
UTA L. Cooley2.030.66023%0
DAL L. Stankoven1.910.47016%0
DAL R. Hintz1.920.70030%0
UTA N. Schmaltz1.810.75123%1
DAL M. Marchment1.710.59022%0
UTA M. Sergachev1.720.61011%0
DAL J. Benn1.710.63121%1
DAL M. Duchene1.630.69126%0
DAL T. Harley1.620.43010%0
UTA L. Crouse1.520.37019%0
UTA M. Kesselring1.540.3808%0
UTA B. Hayton1.510.37015%0
UTA M. Carcone1.440.31018%0
UTA N. Bjugstad1.410.37117%0
DAL E. Lindell1.410.3007%0
DAL E. Dadonov1.320.40116%1
UTA M. Maccelli1.200.52114%0
UTA A. Kerfoot1.230.44015%0
DAL C. Blackwell1.100.22011%0
DAL N. Lundkvist1.120.2104%0
UTA K. Stenlund1.110.18011%0
DAL S. Steel1.100.34111%0
UTA I. Cole0.920.2204%0
DAL M. Dumba0.900.1304%0
UTA J. Välimäki0.930.2103%0
UTA J. McBain0.810.39015%0
DAL O. Bäck0.800.2309%0
UTA O. Maatta0.810.2405%0
DAL M. Bourque0.810.2008%0
DAL I. Lyubushkin0.620.1802%0
UTA R. Bortuzzo0.410.0702%0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.