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Game Recap
DAL3
UTA2
DAL beat UTA 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.48 expected goals to 2.26. N. Schmaltz had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. C. DeSmith stopped 24 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| UTA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 11:02DALC. Blackwell0.16 xG
- 1st 12:41UTAK. Stenlund0.08 xG
- 2nd 12:39DALR. Hintz0.18 xG
- 2nd 17:50DALJ. Benn0.24 xG
- 3rd 11:39UTAB. Hayton0.11 xG
Team Stats
DALUTA
29Shots on goal26
3.48Expected goals2.26
66Shot attempts59
205v5 shots on goal21
0/3Power play0/2
20Hits19
20Blocked shots21
4Penalty minutes6
8Giveaways18
5Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 3.48 xGUTA 2.26 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:14 | 3:44 |
| J. Benn | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:35 | 3:46 |
| R. Hintz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:25 | 3:51 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:03 | 3:54 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:15 | 0:00 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:09 | 2:16 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 15:44 | 2:09 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:24 | 1:57 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:11 | 2:14 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:32 | 1:09 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 25:49 | 4:51 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | +1 | 0 | 21:43 | 0:00 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:28 | 0:09 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 15:24 | 0:00 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:58 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. DeSmith | 26 | 24 | 2 | .923 | 59:30 | Win |
| J. Oettinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:13 | 2:38 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:45 | 1:56 |
| B. Hayton | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:53 | 0:00 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:03 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:54 | 1:19 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:10 | 2:41 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:48 | 2:03 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:39 | 2:39 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:37 | 1:14 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 14:30 | 0:01 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:00 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:28 | 1:20 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:39 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 25:07 | 2:11 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21:00 | 0:05 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:08 | 1:50 |
| J. Välimäki | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:46 | 0:00 |
| V. Kolyachonok | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 29 | 26 | 3 | .897 | 57:47 | Loss |
| J. Stauber | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 3.6, UTA 2.9 | DAL 3, UTA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 31.0, UTA 26.4 | DAL 29, UTA 26 |
| Win chance | DAL 61% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.6 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.4 | 2 | 0.87 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.3 | 4 | 0.83 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.2 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.2 | 2 | 0.70 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 2.1 | 4 | 0.50 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.0 | 1 | 0.72 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 1.9 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 1.8 | 5 | 0.73 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 1.8 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.8 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.8 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.7 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.7 | 2 | 0.68 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.4 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.4 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.3 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.3 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.3 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.2 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.1 | 0 | 0.37 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.1 | 3 | 0.23 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.1 | 2 | 0.20 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.0 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 1.0 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA J. Välimäki | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 0.8 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| UTA V. Kolyachonok | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.