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Game Recap
DAL1
UTA2
UTA beat DAL 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.20 expected goals to 2.84. J. Marino led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Harley had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. K. Vejmelka stopped 26 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| UTA | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 19:53UTAN. Schmaltz0.10 xG
- 3rd 2:04DALM. RantanenPP0.68 xG
- 3rd 4:03UTAJ. Marino0.02 xG
Team Stats
DALUTA
27Shots on goal27
2.84Expected goals2.20
46Shot attempts62
195v5 shots on goal22
1/2Power play0/2
15Hits18
18Blocked shots15
6Penalty minutes4
16Giveaways20
6Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 2.84 xGUTA 2.20 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Rantanen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:11 | 2:12 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:42 | 2:12 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:25 | 1:52 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:31 | 1:50 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:57 | 0:35 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:30 | 0:00 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:38 | 0:33 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:47 | 0:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:39 | 0:13 |
| A. Erne | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:22 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 30:46 | 1:50 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 24:09 | 0:13 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:38 | 0:00 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:30 | 0:00 |
| A. Petrovic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:58 | 0:00 |
| K. Capobianco | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:29 | 0:35 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 56:38 | Loss |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Schmaltz | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:57 | 2:21 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:03 | 2:31 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:11 | 1:34 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:02 | 2:25 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:07 | 1:39 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:15 | 0:00 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:45 | 1:29 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:32 | 2:22 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:29 | 0:00 |
| D. But | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:11 | 1:29 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:25 | 0:00 |
| L. O'Brien | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:30 | 0:00 |
| J. Marino | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:14 | 0:10 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 23:23 | 2:14 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:17 | 0:04 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:08 | 1:42 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:13 | 0:00 |
| N. DeSimone | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 27 | 26 | 1 | .963 | 60:00 | Win |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DAL
Line 1M. Rantanen15:56W. Johnston15:27S. Steel15:29
Line 2M. Duchene15:37R. Hintz14:14J. Robertson14:46
Line 3M. Bourque11:05O. Bäck9:29J. Hryckowian8:58
Pair 1E. Lindell19:38N. Lundkvist15:23
Pair 2A. Petrovic13:28T. Harley22:56
Pair 3K. Capobianco11:54I. Lyubushkin13:13
UTA
Line 1N. Schmaltz13:40L. Crouse14:02C. Keller13:29
Line 2B. Hayton14:30D. But12:42J. Peterka12:05
Line 3J. McBain11:59D. Guenther12:10M. Carcone13:16
Line 4K. Stenlund9:38B. Tanev8:40L. O'Brien8:30
Pair 1M. Sergachev16:47S. Durzi17:04
Pair 2N. Schmidt17:30J. Marino18:39
Pair 3I. Cole14:16N. DeSimone12:08
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 2.9, UTA 3.1 | DAL 1, UTA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 23.4, UTA 29.2 | DAL 27, UTA 27 |
| Win chance | UTA 53% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA D. Guenther | 3.1 | 4 | 0.83 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.9 | 2 | 1.00 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.7 | 3 | 0.96 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.4 | 1 | 0.85 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.2 | 3 | 1.05 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.2 | 2 | 0.82 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| UTA J. Peterka | 2.1 | 3 | 0.71 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.0 | 3 | 0.78 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 2.0 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.9 | 3 | 0.49 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.9 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.8 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.7 | 6 | 0.47 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.6 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.5 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA D. But | 1.5 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.4 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.3 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.1 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmidt | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.0 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.0 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA L. O'Brien | 1.0 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL A. Petrovic | 1.0 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA N. DeSimone | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.9 | 2 | 0.34 | 2 | 4% | 1 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA B. Tanev | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL R. Faksa | 0.7 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL K. Capobianco | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL A. Erne | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.5 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 31 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.