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Game Recap
DAL3
UTA2
DAL beat UTA 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.24 expected goals to 2.05. DAL outshot UTA 32 to 14. K. Yamamoto led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). W. Johnston had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. C. DeSmith stopped 12 of 14.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| UTA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 2:11DALT. HarleyPP0.48 xG
- 1st 7:42DALW. JohnstonPP0.08 xG
- 1st 10:23UTAK. Yamamoto0.12 xG
- 1st 16:37DALM. Duchene0.17 xG
- 3rd 6:41UTAK. Yamamoto0.15 xG
Team Stats
DALUTA
32Shots on goal14
3.24Expected goals2.05
59Shot attempts39
265v5 shots on goal11
2/4Power play0/2
25Hits18
12Blocked shots8
4Penalty minutes10
10Giveaways16
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 3.24 xGUTA 2.05 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:40 | 1:38 |
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:23 | 5:03 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:47 | 5:23 |
| M. Duchene | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 1:29 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:14 | 1:24 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:21 | 4:49 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 15:56 | 4:35 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:08 | 0:22 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:13 | 0:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:12 | 0:00 |
| A. Erne | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:12 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25:35 | 4:59 |
| T. Harley | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:23 | 1:37 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:39 | 0:42 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:14 |
| A. Petrovic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 14:04 | 0:00 |
| K. Capobianco | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:00 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. DeSmith | 14 | 12 | 2 | .857 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Oettinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:50 | 1:24 |
| K. Yamamoto | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:00 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:28 | 2:32 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:18 | 2:48 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:54 | 1:09 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 | 2:51 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:32 | 2:43 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:00 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13:20 | 0:00 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:06 | 1:12 |
| D. But | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:57 | 1:17 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:31 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 25:17 | 2:49 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 18:33 | 0:00 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 18:26 | 1:15 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:27 | 0:00 |
| N. DeSimone | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 32 | 29 | 3 | .906 | 58:29 | Loss |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DAL
Line 1M. Rantanen13:34W. Johnston14:13J. Hryckowian10:36
Line 2M. Duchene12:24S. Steel11:53J. Benn12:02
Line 3M. Bourque12:09J. Robertson11:54R. Hintz10:17
Pair 1N. Lundkvist17:02T. Harley18:38
Pair 2E. Lindell16:35M. Heiskanen15:15
Pair 3A. Petrovic12:37K. Capobianco12:00
UTA
Line 1J. Peterka15:21B. Hayton13:05K. Yamamoto12:23
Line 2N. Schmaltz11:55C. Keller11:07L. Crouse11:17
Line 3M. Carcone11:15J. McBain11:34D. Guenther11:18
Line 4K. Stenlund10:53D. But9:40B. Tanev8:00
Pair 1N. Schmidt16:54J. Marino17:39
Pair 2I. Cole12:41N. DeSimone14:30
Pair 3M. Sergachev15:46S. Durzi14:52
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 3.0, UTA 3.1 | DAL 3, UTA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 24.0, UTA 27.9 | DAL 32, UTA 14 |
| Win chance | UTA 52% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA D. Guenther | 3.0 | 0 | 0.82 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.9 | 3 | 0.98 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.5 | 0 | 0.95 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.3 | 1 | 0.85 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.2 | 4 | 1.03 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.1 | 6 | 0.76 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 2.0 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.0 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.9 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 1.9 | 5 | 0.61 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA J. Peterka | 1.9 | 1 | 0.66 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.8 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.8 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.7 | 3 | 0.46 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.6 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.6 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.4 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.4 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA D. But | 1.4 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.2 | 0 | 0.42 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmidt | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA K. Yamamoto | 0.9 | 2 | 0.29 | 2 | 12% | 2 |
| UTA N. DeSimone | 0.9 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.9 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL A. Petrovic | 0.9 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL R. Faksa | 0.7 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA B. Tanev | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL A. Erne | 0.6 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL K. Capobianco | 0.6 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.5 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.