Game Recap: DAL 2, VGK 3, December 6, 2024

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Game Recap

DAL2

FinalFri, Dec 6, 2024Every game that night

VGK3

VGK beat DAL 3-2, with the chances close: 2.56 expected goals to 2.94. DAL outshot VGK 40 to 28. S. Theodore led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). L. Stankoven had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. A. Hill stopped 38 of 40.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	0	1	1	2
VGK	1	2	0	3

1st 15:23VGKT. HertlPP0.16 xG
2nd 6:39DALM. Bourque0.10 xG
2nd 15:40VGKJ. EichelPP0.04 xG
2nd 16:48VGKN. Roy0.11 xG
3rd 17:26DALM. Marchment0.18 xG

Team Stats

DALVGK

40Shots on goal28

2.94Expected goals2.56

68Shot attempts60

255v5 shots on goal21

0/2Power play2/6

15Hits19

14Blocked shots18

12Penalty minutes4

28Giveaways22

4Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.94 xGVGK 2.56 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL39 on goal, 2 scored

VGK28 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Johnston	C	0	1	1	3	2	0	+1	0	21:46	1:18
M. Marchment	LW	1	0	1	6	2	1	+1	2	16:57	1:26
M. Bourque	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	2	10:14	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	10:13	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	9:14	0:00
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	18:59	1:16
M. Duchene	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:35	1:25
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	7	0	1	0	0	18:15	1:24
J. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	17:45	1:17
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	13:07	0:00
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	+1	4	12:57	1:16
E. Dadonov	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:21	1:26
M. Heiskanen	D	0	1	1	4	0	2	+2	0	24:33	1:46
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	21:34	0:00
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	4	1	2	-1	0	21:05	0:56
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	18:29	0:00
M. Dumba	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	14:05	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	28	25	3	.893	56:56	Loss
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	-1	0	19:41	5:20
M. Stone	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	19:25	5:27
T. Hertl	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	-1	0	14:17	5:15
N. Roy	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	14:16	1:56
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	20:36	2:55
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	0	6	0	-1	0	18:10	1:03
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	17:06	3:01
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:11	5:15
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	14:28	0:00
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	11:37	0:02
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:04	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	8:02	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	2	22:41	5:15
A. Pietrangelo	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	27:04	3:07
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	23:03	3:10
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	2	1	4	0	0	21:36	0:04
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	12:05	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	8:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	40	38	2	.950	60:00	Win
I. Samsonov	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 3.0, VGK 3.0	DAL 2, VGK 3
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	DAL 28.8, VGK 28.8	DAL 40, VGK 28
Win chance	VGK 50%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.2	4	1.03	1	31%	1
DAL W. Johnston	2.6	3	0.67	1	28%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.5	3	0.58	0	28%	0
DAL J. Robertson	2.3	2	0.80	0	29%	0
DAL L. Stankoven	2.1	7	0.49	0	16%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.1	1	0.62	2	10%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.1	1	0.72	0	30%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	2.0	2	0.66	0	23%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.0	4	0.62	1	10%	0
VGK A. Pietrangelo	1.9	1	0.46	0	8%	0
DAL M. Marchment	1.8	6	0.60	1	22%	1
VGK M. Stone	1.8	2	0.85	1	26%	0
VGK T. Hertl	1.8	1	0.55	1	21%	1
VGK N. Hanifin	1.8	0	0.43	0	10%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.8	2	0.65	0	21%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.7	2	0.69	0	26%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.6	4	0.43	0	8%	0
VGK V. Olofsson	1.6	1	0.46	0	22%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	0	0.67	0	23%	0
VGK N. Roy	1.4	4	0.46	1	16%	1
DAL E. Dadonov	1.4	1	0.42	0	17%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.4	1	0.29	0	6%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.3	0	0.22	0	4%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.2	2	0.25	0	5%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.2	2	0.34	0	17%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.2	3	0.28	0	13%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.2	2	0.22	1	11%	0
VGK N. Hague	1.1	1	0.15	0	4%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.1	2	0.35	0	12%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.1	0	0.30	0	13%	0
VGK T. Pearson	1.0	1	0.28	0	11%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.0	0	0.21	0	3%	0
DAL M. Dumba	0.8	1	0.12	0	3%	0
DAL M. Bourque	0.8	2	0.20	1	9%	1
DAL O. Bäck	0.8	0	0.22	1	9%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	0	0.18	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.