Game Recap: DAL 4, VGK 3 (OT), January 28, 2025

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Game Recap

DAL4

Final/OTTue, Jan 28, 2025Every game that night

VGK3

DAL beat VGK 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.42 expected goals to 2.09. W. Johnston scored three for DAL. J. Oettinger stopped 25 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
DAL	1	1	1	1	4
VGK	2	1	0	0	3

1st 1:54VGKJ. Eichel0.26 xG
1st 3:41DALM. Bourque0.15 xG
1st 6:35VGKT. Hertl0.09 xG
2nd 3:57VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.15 xG
2nd 5:04DALW. JohnstonSH0.31 xG
3rd 11:54DALW. Johnston0.08 xG
OT 0:20DALW. Johnston0.36 xG

Team Stats

DALVGK

28Shots on goal28

3.42Expected goals2.09

58Shot attempts63

235v5 shots on goal24

0/3Power play1/2

15Hits27

23Blocked shots15

4Penalty minutes6

23Giveaways14

2Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 3.42 xGVGK 2.09 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL26 on goal, 4 scored

VGK28 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Johnston	C	3	0	3	5	0	0	+2	0	20:33	3:54
R. Hintz	C	0	3	3	2	1	1	+3	0	15:54	2:15
J. Robertson	LW	0	1	1	4	0	1	-1	0	21:13	4:30
M. Duchene	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	18:20	3:48
M. Bourque	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	15:26	1:10
E. Dadonov	LW	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	0	17:01	1:43
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	15:12	2:28
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	14:48	1:29
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:38	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	10:54	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	10:27	0:00
E. Lindell	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+2	0	20:44	0:58
M. Heiskanen	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	19:50	1:41
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	+1	0	27:20	2:23
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	17:53	0:04
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	2	15:44	0:15
M. Dumba	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	13:50	0:27
B. Smith	D	0	0	0	3	4	1	0	0	7:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	28	25	3	.893	60:20	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	1	1	2	3	0	1	-1	0	23:25	2:22
M. Stone	RW	0	2	2	4	0	1	-2	2	21:31	2:22
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	1	2	2	1	1	+1	0	14:27	2:01
I. Barbashev	LW	0	1	1	0	4	1	0	0	18:34	0:03
T. Hertl	C	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	15:53	2:22
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	14:28	0:00
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	13:27	0:00
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	12:46	0:24
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	12:08	0:03
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	3	3	2	0	0	11:11	0:00
J. Rondbjerg	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	10:39	0:00
R. Lavoie	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	8:28	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	15:34	0:00
A. Pietrangelo	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	23:09	0:03
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	+1	0	22:00	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	21:47	2:22
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	20:00	0:03
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	15:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	28	24	4	.857	60:20	OT loss
I. Samsonov	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 2.7, VGK 2.9	DAL 4, VGK 3
Total goals	5.6	7
Shots on goal	DAL 26.9, VGK 28.9	DAL 28, VGK 28
Win chance	VGK 53%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.3	3	1.05	2	31%	1
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.6	2	0.56	2	28%	1
DAL J. Robertson	2.5	4	0.87	1	30%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.5	5	0.73	3	27%	3
DAL L. Stankoven	2.3	1	0.45	0	15%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.1	2	0.65	0	10%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.1	2	0.59	1	23%	1
DAL J. Benn	2.0	1	0.70	0	23%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.0	2	0.66	3	29%	0
VGK M. Stone	1.9	4	0.92	2	28%	0
VGK A. Pietrangelo	1.9	3	0.43	0	8%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	1.9	2	0.54	1	9%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.8	0	0.76	1	27%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.8	1	0.42	0	10%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.8	1	0.38	0	9%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.6	3	0.49	0	18%	0
VGK V. Olofsson	1.6	2	0.44	0	21%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	0	0.60	1	22%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.4	2	0.31	1	13%	1
DAL S. Steel	1.3	0	0.35	0	12%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.3	0	0.33	0	17%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.3	1	0.24	0	4%	0
VGK N. Roy	1.3	0	0.39	0	14%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.2	2	0.22	0	10%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.2	0	0.25	1	6%	0
VGK T. Pearson	1.2	3	0.28	0	12%	0
VGK N. Hague	1.1	3	0.12	1	4%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.0	0	0.30	0	12%	0
VGK J. Rondbjerg	1.0	2	0.14	0	6%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.9	0	0.16	0	5%	0
DAL M. Dumba	0.7	0	0.11	0	3%	0
DAL B. Smith	0.6	3	0.13	0	3%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	1	0.22	0	8%	0
VGK R. Lavoie	0.6	0	0.10	0	6%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	0	0.16	0	2%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.5	1	0.16	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.