Game Recap: DAL 5, VGK 4 (SO), January 29, 2026

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Game Recap

DAL5

Final/SOThu, Jan 29, 2026Every game that night

VGK4

DAL beat VGK 5-4 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 3.69 expected goals to 2.44. M. Bourque led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). I. Barbashev had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Oettinger stopped 17 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
DAL	1	3	0	1	5
VGK	0	1	3	0	4

1st 1:37DALM. Duchene0.05 xG
2nd 4:07VGKK. Kolesar0.17 xG
2nd 8:46DALM. Bourque0.21 xG
2nd 14:16DALM. Bourque0.12 xG
2nd 16:43DALW. Johnston0.29 xG
3rd 4:04VGKR. SmithSH0.16 xG
3rd 13:54VGKI. Barbashev0.09 xG
3rd 19:11VGKM. Marner0.05 xG

Team Stats

DALVGK

27Shots on goal21

3.69Expected goals2.44

56Shot attempts61

245v5 shots on goal18

0/2Power play0/1

29Hits26

23Blocked shots11

2Penalty minutes4

19Giveaways15

8Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 3.69 xGVGK 2.44 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL27 on goal, 4 scored

VGK21 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Bourque	C	2	0	2	4	1	0	+1	0	17:09	0:59
S. Steel	C	0	2	2	2	1	1	+1	0	16:15	0:00
J. Benn	LW	0	2	2	1	1	2	+1	0	13:00	1:01
M. Rantanen	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	22:11	3:01
W. Johnston	C	1	0	1	4	3	1	-1	0	20:39	2:49
J. Robertson	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	2	18:48	2:49
M. Duchene	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	17:26	2:15
R. Hintz	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	-1	0	15:20	1:45
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	15:03	0:11
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	12:14	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:01	0:00
A. Erne	LW	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	10:43	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	26:50	1:52
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	2	1	6	0	0	26:12	2:08
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	-3	0	23:51	1:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+2	0	19:33	0:10
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+2	0	13:25	0:00
K. Capobianco	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+2	0	12:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	21	17	4	.810	65:00	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	0	21:23	1:02
K. Kolesar	RW	1	1	2	2	5	1	-1	0	14:38	0:25
M. Stone	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	20:09	0:50
I. Barbashev	LW	1	0	1	4	3	0	0	0	18:58	0:58
T. Hertl	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	0	15:17	1:02
R. Smith	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	14:24	0:00
J. Eichel	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	+2	2	22:48	1:04
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	17:17	1:06
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	13:11	0:00
B. Bowman	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	13:04	1:10
T. Laczynski	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:43	0:31
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9:03	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	0	22:44	0:54
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	26:19	0:58
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	23:51	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	-1	2	18:14	0:00
B. Hutton	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:50	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	27	23	4	.852	64:05	OT loss
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1M. Rantanen15:54W. Johnston15:48J. Hryckowian13:34

Line 2J. Robertson15:18M. Bourque15:25R. Hintz11:37

Line 3M. Duchene13:11S. Steel13:28J. Benn11:59

Line 4R. Faksa11:23O. Bäck10:54A. Erne10:43

Pair 1M. Heiskanen20:20E. Lindell20:12

Pair 2N. Lundkvist19:23T. Harley20:36

Pair 3A. Petrovic13:21K. Capobianco12:19

VGK

Line 1M. Stone14:35J. Eichel16:44I. Barbashev16:52

Line 2M. Marner14:47P. Dorofeyev13:38B. Bowman11:54

Line 3T. Hertl12:59K. Kolesar13:01R. Smith13:16

Line 4T. Laczynski9:12C. Reinhardt9:03A. Holtz13:11

Pair 1N. Hanifin19:47R. Andersson18:06

Pair 2S. Theodore20:12J. Lauzon17:16

Pair 3B. Hutton15:50K. Korczak15:02

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 2.9, VGK 3.2	DAL 5, VGK 4
Total goals	6.0	9
Shots on goal	DAL 22.6, VGK 28.8	DAL 27, VGK 21
Win chance	VGK 56%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.3	0	1.15	0	31%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.9	0	0.69	0	32%	0
DAL J. Robertson	2.9	2	1.04	1	36%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.5	0	0.75	1	27%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.2	1	1.06	1	32%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.1	0	1.01	1	29%	0
VGK R. Andersson	2.1	3	0.44	1	11%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.1	4	0.79	1	30%	1
VGK S. Theodore	2.0	1	0.61	0	10%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.0	2	0.80	1	29%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.9	2	1.05	2	26%	1
VGK N. Hanifin	1.9	2	0.41	0	8%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	1.7	0	0.64	0	10%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.5	2	0.48	0	11%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.5	4	0.36	2	15%	2
VGK I. Barbashev	1.4	4	0.58	1	20%	1
DAL M. Duchene	1.4	1	0.59	1	22%	1
VGK R. Smith	1.3	1	0.39	1	16%	1
VGK B. Hutton	1.2	1	0.22	0	6%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	1.2	2	0.18	0	4%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.2	3	0.43	0	14%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.1	1	0.41	2	15%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.1	1	0.22	0	5%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.0	2	0.34	2	11%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.0	2	0.29	2	11%	1
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.0	2	0.33	0	13%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.0	0	0.24	0	4%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.0	0	0.20	0	9%	0
DAL E. Lindell	0.9	3	0.30	0	7%	0
VGK T. Laczynski	0.9	0	0.18	0	8%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	0.8	0	0.14	0	4%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	0.7	0	0.16	0	7%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.7	1	0.24	0	7%	0
DAL A. Erne	0.6	0	0.15	0	7%	0
DAL K. Capobianco	0.5	1	0.13	0	4%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.5	0	0.19	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.