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Game Recap
DAL4
WSH1
DAL beat WSH 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.38 expected goals to 2.11. DAL outshot WSH 36 to 24. S. Steel led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). R. Hintz had 12 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. C. DeSmith stopped 23 of 24.
Team Stats
DALWSH
36Shots on goal24
4.38Expected goals2.11
63Shot attempts46
235v5 shots on goal19
0/2Power play0/2
16Hits22
11Blocked shots16
11Penalty minutes11
13Giveaways24
3Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 4.38 xGWSH 2.11 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Steel | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:16 | 0:00 |
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:49 | 2:00 |
| R. Hintz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:13 | 2:12 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:20 |
| R. Faksa | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:47 | 0:00 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:37 | 2:28 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:08 | 2:32 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:36 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:36 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:19 | 0:00 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:35 | 0:00 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 26:49 | 0:20 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:11 | 0:48 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 28:02 | 1:34 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:36 | 0:22 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 9 | 15:14 | 0:04 |
| K. Capobianco | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:14 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. DeSmith | 24 | 23 | 1 | .958 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Oettinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:43 | 2:32 |
| R. Leonard | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:07 | 1:53 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:50 | 1:55 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:40 | 0:10 |
| J. Sourdif | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:45 | 0:37 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:45 | 0:00 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:39 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12:55 | 0:00 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 8:09 | 0:00 |
| S. Milano | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:59 | 0:00 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:53 | 0:00 |
| B. Leason | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:34 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 27:37 | 2:04 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:30 | 2:08 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:49 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:19 | 0:28 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 18:31 | 0:14 |
| D. McIlrath | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:08 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 35 | 32 | 3 | .914 | 58:02 | Loss |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DAL
Line 1S. Steel16:52W. Johnston17:12M. Rantanen16:35
Line 2R. Hintz13:25J. Robertson14:02M. Bourque14:31
Line 3M. Duchene11:41C. Blackwell9:32J. Hryckowian8:54
Line 4R. Faksa8:25O. Bäck8:46N. Bastian8:35
Pair 1E. Lindell20:46M. Heiskanen20:29
Pair 2I. Lyubushkin14:54T. Harley19:05
Pair 3N. Lundkvist13:32K. Capobianco10:14
WSH
Line 1J. Sourdif17:15C. McMichael16:36R. Leonard17:41
Line 2D. Strome14:14A. Beauvillier14:33A. Ovechkin15:13
Line 3N. Dowd12:34E. Frank12:43B. Duhaime7:11
Line 4S. Milano7:59B. Leason5:34H. Lapierre6:53
Pair 1M. Roy18:43J. Chychrun18:54
Pair 2J. Carlson21:15M. Fehérváry16:40
Pair 3R. Sandin17:24D. McIlrath6:08
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 2.8, WSH 3.3 | DAL 4, WSH 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 24.8, WSH 29.6 | DAL 36, WSH 24 |
| Win chance | WSH 58% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 3.2 | 1 | 0.99 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 3.1 | 6 | 0.64 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.0 | 2 | 0.93 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.4 | 1 | 1.00 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 2.3 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH R. Leonard | 2.3 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.2 | 5 | 0.76 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.2 | 3 | 0.68 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.0 | 0 | 0.60 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 1.9 | 12 | 0.71 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.9 | 2 | 0.91 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 1.9 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH J. Sourdif | 1.7 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.6 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH E. Frank | 1.5 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.5 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.5 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.1 | 4 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH B. Leason | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| WSH S. Milano | 0.8 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL R. Faksa | 0.7 | 3 | 0.24 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| DAL N. Bastian | 0.7 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL K. Capobianco | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 0.6 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH D. McIlrath | 0.5 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.