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Game Recap
DAL6
FinalTue, Nov 3, 2026Every game that night
WSH5

DAL beat WSH 6-5, and the chances backed it up: 3.39 expected goals to 2.27. J. Robertson scored three for DAL. J. Oettinger stopped 20 of 25.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
DAL1416
WSH0325
  1. 1st 8:56DALJ. Kiviranta0.25 xG
  2. 2nd 0:23DALJ. RobertsonPP0.12 xG
  3. 2nd 3:18DALJ. Robertson0.03 xG
  4. 2nd 5:43DALJ. Robertson0.02 xG
  5. 2nd 11:00WSHJ. KyrouPP0.16 xG
  6. 2nd 14:50DALM. Rantanen0.16 xG
  7. 2nd 16:58WSHB. Jenner0.12 xG
  8. 2nd 19:30WSHJ. ChychrunPP0.17 xG
  9. 3rd 1:23DALR. Hintz0.04 xG
  10. 3rd 12:55WSHJ. Sourdif0.09 xG
  11. 3rd 18:58WSHR. Leonard0.05 xG

Team Stats

DALWSH
22Shots on goal25
3.39Expected goals2.27
46Shot attempts58
185v5 shots on goal17
1/2Power play2/3
18Hits24
18Blocked shots8
4Penalty minutes2
9Giveaways13
4Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 3.39 xGWSH 2.27 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdDAL goal, 8:56DAL goal, 0:23DAL goal, 3:18DAL goal, 5:43WSH goal, 11:00DAL goal, 14:50WSH goal, 16:58WSH goal, 19:30DAL goal, 1:23WSH goal, 12:55WSH goal, 18:58

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL21 on goal, 6 scored
WSH25 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. RobertsonLW314500+2017:053:25
R. HintzC123210+2014:272:55
W. JohnstonC022200+1016:132:56
M. RantanenRW101100+1018:513:23
A. HyryRW011402+2015:250:00
J. KivirantaLW101120+2013:510:00
R. FaksaC011000+1013:380:00
J. BennLW0110410012:030:00
S. SteelC000010-2016:470:00
J. HryckowianC000140-2015:060:30
T. SeguinC000100-1013:210:29
D. PerronLW0001100011:410:00
T. HarleyD022105+3224:431:56
E. LindellD011114+1026:320:00
T. MyersD011102+3021:190:00
N. LundkvistD000101-1018:400:02
L. BichselD000042-2215:570:00
M. HeiskanenD000001009:411:29
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Oettinger25205.80060:00Win
C. DeSmith000–0:00

WSH Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. KyrouRW123100-2017:032:50
D. StromeC022300-3017:482:52
R. LeonardRW112230+1012:561:48
B. JennerC101420+2015:120:04
J. SourdifC101240+3013:050:07
I. ProtasLW011001+2012:041:21
A. BeauvillierRW011040+1012:020:00
A. TuchRW000220-3018:341:39
A. OvechkinLW0002100017:262:59
T. WilsonRW000140-1217:262:50
P. DuboisC000010-2017:181:46
A. ProtasLW000001-2015:220:00
J. ChychrunD112500-2026:501:56
C. HutsonD011100-2022:042:33
M. FehérváryD011013-1018:020:07
M. RoyD000211-1020:560:08
J. St. IvanyD0000110012:390:00
T. LiljegrenD000001+1012:380:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Thompson1174.63625:17
C. Lindgren1192.81831:49Loss

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1T. Seguin12:40J. Hryckowian13:56S. Steel13:10
Line 2M. Rantanen14:28W. Johnston12:12J. Benn11:39
Line 3D. Perron11:41R. Faksa11:26J. Kiviranta12:09
Line 4J. Robertson12:01A. Hyry10:58R. Hintz10:27
Pair 1T. Harley21:33N. Lundkvist17:25
Pair 2T. Myers16:14L. Bichsel15:11
Pair 3E. Lindell20:50M. Heiskanen7:05

WSH

Line 1D. Strome12:43J. Kyrou13:47A. Tuch12:24
Line 2P. Dubois13:47A. Protas14:22T. Wilson11:38
Line 3A. Beauvillier12:02J. Sourdif12:24A. Ovechkin11:55
Line 4B. Jenner11:55I. Protas9:58R. Leonard10:20
Pair 1J. Chychrun22:48C. Hutson18:36
Pair 2M. Roy17:31M. Fehérváry14:57
Pair 3T. Liljegren11:45J. Ivany12:13

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 20 overs hit (35%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
WSH A. Ovechkin2.5+150-1902Under
WSH A. Tuch2.5+140-1652Under
WSH J. Chychrun2.5+115-1355Over
DAL J. Robertson2.5-155+1345Over
DAL M. Rantanen2.5+138-1701Under
DAL W. Johnston2.5-108-1102Under
DAL A. Hyry1.5+100-1254Over
WSH A. Protas1.5+108-1300Under
WSH B. Jenner1.5+108-1414Over
WSH C. Hutson1.5-105-1101Under
WSH D. Strome1.5-118-1103Over
DAL J. Benn1.5+105–0Under
WSH J. Kyrou1.5-190+1501Under
DAL M. Heiskanen1.5-128+1100Under
WSH P. Dubois1.5+125-1500Under
DAL R. Hintz1.5-165+1402Over
WSH R. Leonard1.5-165+1402Over
DAL T. Harley1.5+106-1101Under
DAL T. Seguin1.5+100-1301Under
WSH T. Wilson1.5-150+1201Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreDAL 3.1, WSH 2.9DAL 6, WSH 5
Total goals6.011
Shots on goalDAL 25.6, WSH 25.3DAL 22, WSH 25
Win chanceDAL 52%DAL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
DAL J. Robertson3.251.06437%3
WSH J. Chychrun2.550.67220%1
DAL W. Johnston2.520.91235%0
WSH A. Tuch2.320.73030%0
DAL M. Rantanen2.111.06132%1
WSH A. Ovechkin2.120.60027%0
DAL R. Hintz2.120.79328%1
WSH J. Kyrou2.010.62325%1
DAL M. Heiskanen1.900.70012%0
WSH R. Leonard1.920.50220%1
WSH T. Wilson1.910.68027%0
DAL A. Hyry1.840.36117%0
WSH B. Jenner1.740.45121%1
DAL T. Seguin1.710.55022%0
WSH D. Strome1.730.73223%0
WSH C. Hutson1.610.54116%0
WSH A. Protas1.600.57021%0
DAL J. Benn1.500.54118%0
DAL T. Harley1.510.40210%0
WSH P. Dubois1.500.59018%0
DAL D. Perron1.310.39016%0
WSH A. Beauvillier1.200.25112%0
WSH J. Sourdif1.120.36115%1
DAL J. Hryckowian1.110.33014%0
DAL S. Steel1.100.36012%0
WSH M. Roy1.120.2805%0
DAL J. Kiviranta1.010.1919%1
DAL N. Lundkvist1.010.2405%0
DAL E. Lindell1.010.2715%0
WSH I. Protas0.900.35111%0
DAL T. Myers0.910.1714%0
WSH T. Liljegren0.800.2105%0
WSH M. Fehérváry0.800.3316%0
DAL R. Faksa0.700.2017%0
WSH J. Ivany0.700.2203%0
DAL L. Bichsel0.600.1204%0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.