Game Recap: DET 3, CBJ 5, March 1, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

DET3

FinalSat, Mar 1, 2025Every game that night

CBJ5

CBJ beat DET 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.28 expected goals to 2.70. DET outshot CBJ 46 to 21. P. Kane led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. DeBrincat had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. E. Merzlikins stopped 43 of 46.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DET	0	1	2	3
CBJ	0	3	2	5

2nd 5:31CBJD. Mateychuk0.10 xG
2nd 13:06DETA. DeBrincatPP0.36 xG
2nd 17:23CBJD. VoronkovPP0.18 xG
2nd 17:55CBJM. Olivier0.06 xG
3rd 3:34DETP. Kane0.04 xG
3rd 16:36DETA. DeBrincat0.13 xG
3rd 17:43CBJJ. Danforth0.73 xG
3rd 18:52CBJA. FantilliEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

DETCBJ

46Shots on goal21

2.70Expected goals4.28

84Shot attempts45

435v5 shots on goal19

1/2Power play1/1

31Hits25

14Blocked shots22

2Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways20

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 2.70 xGCBJ 4.28 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET46 on goal, 3 scored

CBJ21 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Kane	RW	1	2	3	5	0	0	-1	0	20:16	1:46
A. DeBrincat	RW	2	0	2	6	0	0	-1	0	21:11	1:43
D. Larkin	C	0	0	0	5	5	0	-1	0	21:58	1:46
L. Raymond	LW	0	0	0	5	1	0	-1	0	21:29	1:46
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	19:37	1:02
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	4	1	3	0	0	19:06	1:05
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-2	0	15:44	1:02
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	2	4	3	-1	0	13:23	0:00
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:51	1:02
E. Soderblom	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	9:30	0:00
T. Motte	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	6:06	0:00
C. Fischer	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5:09	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	1	1	2	3	2	-1	2	25:06	1:41
S. Edvinsson	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	20:36	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	-1	0	19:19	0:00
E. Gustafsson	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	15:57	1:07
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	20:53	0:00
J. Holl	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	14:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	20	16	4	.800	59:27	Loss
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Jenner	C	0	2	2	1	1	0	+1	0	15:03	0:00
J. Danforth	RW	1	1	2	3	6	1	+2	0	14:22	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0	17:57	0:08
A. Fantilli	C	1	0	1	2	1	2	+1	0	17:43	0:08
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	1	1	1	2	1	+2	0	15:33	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	1	0	1	2	5	0	+2	0	14:51	0:00
K. Johnson	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	14:08	0:08
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	12:25	0:00
K. Marchenko	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	2	17:51	0:08
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	14:25	0:00
M. Pyyhtia	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	12:24	0:00
J. LaBate	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	10:24	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	2	2	2	0	4	0	0	29:53	0:08
I. Provorov	D	0	1	1	0	0	4	+2	0	20:44	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	17:46	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	2	25:20	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	13:49	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	12:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	46	43	3	.935	60:00	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCam Talbot CBJ First game against DET since he left (his team until Apr 2026)16 saves on 20
Old teamDaniil Tarasov DET Faces CBJ, his team until Apr 20250 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 3.2, CBJ 3.2	DET 3, CBJ 5
Total goals	6.4	8
Shots on goal	DET 28.5, CBJ 28.7	DET 46, CBJ 21
Win chance	DET 51%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.5	2	0.97	2	19%	0
DET D. Larkin	3.2	5	0.93	0	34%	0
DET A. DeBrincat	3.0	6	0.87	2	33%	2
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.8	3	0.87	0	32%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.8	2	0.76	1	28%	1
DET P. Kane	2.7	5	0.87	3	28%	1
CBJ B. Jenner	2.7	1	0.70	2	30%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.5	3	0.76	1	30%	1
DET L. Raymond	2.4	5	0.94	0	29%	0
DET M. Seider	2.1	2	0.56	1	9%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	2.0	0	0.75	1	26%	0
DET M. Kasper	2.0	1	0.52	0	20%	0
DET V. Tarasenko	2.0	3	0.58	0	24%	0
DET E. Soderblom	1.7	0	0.45	0	18%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.6	3	0.23	0	7%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.5	2	0.38	1	16%	1
CBJ J. Danforth	1.5	3	0.38	2	17%	1
DET J. Compher	1.4	4	0.55	0	20%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.4	0	0.45	1	10%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.4	1	0.27	1	13%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.4	0	0.30	0	6%	0
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.4	2	0.47	1	18%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.2	0	0.29	0	13%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.2	1	0.23	1	8%	1
DET E. Gustafsson	1.2	1	0.33	1	6%	0
DET T. Motte	1.1	2	0.17	0	10%	0
DET J. Berggren	1.1	1	0.34	0	16%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.1	0	0.33	0	8%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.0	3	0.36	1	11%	0
DET J. Veleno	1.0	2	0.27	0	12%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.9	1	0.20	1	4%	0
DET C. Fischer	0.9	0	0.22	0	9%	0
CBJ M. Pyyhtia	0.8	0	0.18	0	9%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.8	0	0.13	0	2%	0
DET J. Holl	0.5	2	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.