PHI beat EDM 6-3, with the chances close: 3.46 expected goals to 2.78. PHI outshot EDM 32 to 18. M. Michkov led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). O. Tippett had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. S. Ersson stopped 15 of 18.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
EDM 2.78 xGPHI 3.46 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Draisaitl | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:14 | 1:41 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:45 | 0:00 |
| M. Savoie | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:02 | 0:00 |
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 19:59 | 1:33 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:40 | 1:36 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:31 | 1:31 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:11 | 0:00 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:24 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:32 | 0:19 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:32 | 0:00 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:03 | 0:29 |
| J. Klingberg | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 15:32 | 0:00 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 22:15 | 0:19 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:52 | 0:00 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:52 | 1:41 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:33 | 0:27 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 20:35 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 31 | 26 | 5 | .839 | 58:57 | Loss |
| C. Pickard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Michkov | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 0 | 14:28 | 2:59 |
| S. Couturier | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:00 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 0 | 11:16 | 0:00 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:05 | 2:59 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:37 | 2:59 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:21 | 2:59 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:35 | 0:18 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:39 | 0:18 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:18 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:00 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:48 | 0:00 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:24 | 2:59 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:00 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:29 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:03 | 0:18 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 18:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:18 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Ersson | 18 | 15 | 3 | .833 | 60:00 | Win |
| I. Fedotov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | EDM 3.3, PHI 2.5 | EDM 3, PHI 6 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | EDM 29.2, PHI 26.4 | EDM 18, PHI 32 |
| Win chance | EDM 63% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.2 | 2 | 1.65 | 0 | 41% | 0 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 3.2 | 2 | 1.46 | 2 | 45% | 1 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 2.9 | 0 | 0.79 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.7 | 1 | 0.98 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.5 | 3 | 0.91 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.4 | 6 | 0.51 | 2 | 22% | 2 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.3 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM V. Arvidsson | 2.2 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.0 | 4 | 0.56 | 3 | 21% | 1 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 1.9 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.9 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.9 | 3 | 0.44 | 3 | 14% | 1 |
| PHI S. Laughton | 1.9 | 0 | 0.47 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 1.9 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.8 | 0 | 0.76 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.7 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.6 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.5 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI A. Kuzmenko | 1.4 | 4 | 0.58 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| PHI J. Pelletier | 1.4 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.3 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| EDM J. Klingberg | 1.3 | 2 | 0.46 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.2 | 3 | 0.23 | 2 | 4% | 1 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.1 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.8 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.8 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.7 | 4 | 0.22 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 14 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.