Game Recap: EDM 6, PIT 4, December 16, 2025

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Game Recap

EDM6

FinalTue, Dec 16, 2025Every game that night

PIT4

EDM beat PIT 6-4, and the chances backed it up: 4.77 expected goals to 3.82. C. McDavid led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). B. Rust had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. T. Jarry stopped 26 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	2	2	2	6
PIT	1	1	2	4

1st 11:38EDMZ. HymanPP0.51 xG
1st 11:52EDMC. McDavidPP0.39 xG
1st 19:15PITT. Novak0.03 xG
2nd 4:35EDMM. Savoie0.07 xG
2nd 6:24PITE. KarlssonPP0.09 xG
2nd 9:36EDME. BouchardPP0.13 xG
3rd 6:47EDMV. Podkolzin0.20 xG
3rd 16:51PITB. Rust0.51 xG
3rd 18:41EDMC. McDavidEN0.56 xG
3rd 19:46PITD. Heinen0.16 xG

Team Stats

EDMPIT

23Shots on goal30

4.77Expected goals3.82

54Shot attempts64

165v5 shots on goal18

3/4Power play1/6

8Hits27

19Blocked shots8

12Penalty minutes8

14Giveaways14

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

EDM 4.77 xGPIT 3.82 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

EDM23 on goal, 6 scored

PIT30 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	2	2	4	6	0	1	0	0	22:31	4:10
L. Draisaitl	C	0	4	4	3	0	0	0	2	18:02	4:10
Z. Hyman	LW	1	1	2	3	1	0	0	0	20:51	4:10
M. Janmark	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	15:56	0:00
M. Savoie	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	0	15:44	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	14:34	0:00
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	20:01	4:10
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:29	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	10:32	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:42	0:00
Q. Hutson	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	6:59	0:00
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	3:17	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	1	1	2	2	0	1	+1	0	24:04	4:10
A. Regula	D	0	1	1	0	2	5	-1	2	18:17	0:00
M. Ekholm	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	2	18:16	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	0	1	5	-1	2	21:59	0:00
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	18:16	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	4	15:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Jarry	30	26	4	.867	59:55	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Mantha	RW	0	2	2	4	0	0	0	0	19:06	7:55
T. Novak	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	+1	0	10:29	2:47
S. Crosby	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	24:07	8:14
B. Rust	RW	1	0	1	6	0	0	0	2	23:59	8:07
R. Rakell	RW	0	1	1	4	4	1	-1	0	22:20	8:03
D. Heinen	LW	1	0	1	3	4	0	+1	2	11:06	0:00
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:21	2:46
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	14:23	2:42
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:43	0:00
R. McGroarty	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:38	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	11:27	0:00
K. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	10:42	2:43
E. Karlsson	D	1	1	2	3	1	1	-2	0	24:11	7:46
R. Shea	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	17:33	0:11
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	20:13	3:09
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	17:34	0:07
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	15:22	0:00
J. St. Ivany	D	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	14:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	22	17	5	.773	57:26	Loss
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman14:34C. McDavid15:57R. Nugent-Hopkins11:53

Line 2L. Draisaitl13:12V. Podkolzin10:26M. Savoie10:22

Line 3A. Henrique10:27M. Janmark10:59A. Mangiapane10:32

Line 4T. Frederic7:42Q. Hutson6:59C. Lazar3:09

Pair 1D. Nurse17:48A. Regula15:55

Pair 2M. Ekholm13:12E. Bouchard13:15

Pair 3S. Stastney13:23T. Emberson11:40

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby13:19B. Rust13:05R. Rakell11:22

Line 2R. McGroarty11:08J. Brazeau11:11B. Kindel11:58

Line 3D. Heinen11:01N. Acciari9:22C. Dewar9:21

Line 4A. Mantha9:03T. Novak7:42K. Hayes7:59

Pair 1B. Kulak14:26J. Ivany14:15

Pair 2K. Letang14:55R. Shea15:55

Pair 3E. Karlsson11:58P. Wotherspoon13:25

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTristan Jarry EDM Faces PIT, his team until Dec 202526 saves on 30, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	EDM 3.2, PIT 3.1	EDM 6, PIT 4
Total goals	6.3	10
Shots on goal	EDM 29.3, PIT 28.4	EDM 23, PIT 30
Win chance	EDM 52%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.1	6	1.53	4	37%	2
EDM Z. Hyman	3.0	3	0.84	2	38%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.9	3	1.38	4	43%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.8	2	1.17	1	37%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.8	2	0.94	2	17%	1
PIT B. Rust	2.8	6	0.91	1	32%	1
PIT B. Kindel	2.6	1	0.51	0	21%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.4	4	0.79	1	28%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.3	3	0.76	2	15%	1
EDM D. Nurse	2.1	0	0.36	0	9%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.0	2	0.83	0	24%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.9	1	0.46	1	10%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.8	4	0.67	2	25%	0
PIT R. McGroarty	1.7	0	0.34	0	14%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.6	1	0.52	2	20%	1
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.6	3	0.42	1	16%	1
EDM M. Savoie	1.6	1	0.33	1	15%	1
PIT K. Hayes	1.6	2	0.36	0	15%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.5	1	0.39	0	8%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.4	1	0.35	0	17%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.4	1	0.31	0	13%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.3	0	0.41	0	18%	0
PIT D. Heinen	1.1	3	0.35	1	14%	1
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.1	0	0.32	0	15%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.0	0	0.21	0	11%	0
PIT B. Kulak	1.0	0	0.19	0	4%	0
PIT N. Acciari	0.9	0	0.21	0	10%	0
EDM A. Regula	0.9	0	0.10	1	4%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.9	1	0.23	0	3%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.8	0	0.25	1	9%	0
EDM S. Stastney	0.8	0	0.19	0	3%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.8	0	0.21	0	3%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.7	1	0.22	1	5%	0
PIT J. Ivany	0.7	0	0.10	0	3%	0
EDM C. Lazar	0.6	0	0.17	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.