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Game Recap
FLA1
CBJ0
FLA beat CBJ 1-0 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.10 expected goals to 2.66. Z. Werenski had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. S. Bobrovsky stopped 25 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| CBJ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- OT 0:29FLAA. BarkovPP0.09 xG
Team Stats
FLACBJ
29Shots on goal25
3.10Expected goals2.66
65Shot attempts75
235v5 shots on goal23
1/2Power play0/2
28Hits27
14Blocked shots18
6Penalty minutes6
33Giveaways27
3Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 3.10 xGCBJ 2.66 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:38 | 2:30 |
| A. Barkov | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:59 | 2:30 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:24 | 0:29 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:15 | 2:30 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:44 | 2:01 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:29 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:29 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:07 | 0:29 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:37 | 0:00 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:26 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:42 | 0:00 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:49 | 2:30 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:31 | 0:00 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:52 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:27 | 0:29 |
| T. Bjornfot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:47 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:29 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 25 | 25 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:29 | Win |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Jenner | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:17 | 1:01 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 | 0:01 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:00 | 0:01 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:54 | 3:19 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:48 | 3:20 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:47 | 0:01 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:52 | 3:01 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:38 | 2:58 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:59 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:05 | 0:38 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:03 | 0:00 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:03 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:23 | 3:19 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:49 | 0:42 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:20 | 0:00 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:57 | 0:40 |
| J. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:12 | 0:00 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:11 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 29 | 28 | 1 | .966 | 60:29 | OT loss |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.5, CBJ 2.7 | FLA 1, CBJ 0 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 1 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 32.6, CBJ 26.3 | FLA 29, CBJ 25 |
| Win chance | FLA 61% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.2 | 6 | 0.87 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.1 | 3 | 0.73 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.8 | 4 | 0.77 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.7 | 3 | 1.04 | 1 | 41% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.3 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.3 | 4 | 0.56 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.3 | 2 | 1.06 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.2 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.1 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 2.1 | 3 | 0.52 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 2.1 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.0 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 1.9 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.7 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Chinakhov | 1.7 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.7 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.4 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.3 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.2 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ L. Kunin | 1.0 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA N. Sturm | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.0 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 0.8 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA T. Bjornfot | 0.7 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Johnson | 0.5 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.