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Game Recap
FLA4
NSH1
FLA beat NSH 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.69 expected goals to 1.88. S. Bennett led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). E. Rodrigues had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. S. Knight stopped 17 of 18.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| NSH | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 1st 1:23FLAS. BennettPP0.47 xG
- 2nd 4:21FLAJ. Sourdif0.24 xG
- 3rd 4:30NSHM. McCarron0.23 xG
- 3rd 9:02FLAG. Forsling0.01 xG
- 3rd 15:34FLAM. Samoskevich0.44 xG
Team Stats
FLANSH
25Shots on goal18
3.69Expected goals1.88
65Shot attempts39
155v5 shots on goal10
1/5Power play0/2
14Hits19
8Blocked shots21
16Penalty minutes22
20Giveaways21
8Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 3.69 xGNSH 1.88 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:12 | 5:05 |
| S. Bennett | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 7 | 16:03 | 4:31 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:51 | 5:50 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:28 | 2:43 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:17 | 2:57 |
| J. Sourdif | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:27 | 0:00 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:41 | 5:28 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:24 | 4:04 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:28 | 2:35 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:22 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7:47 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:07 | 5:51 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:36 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:51 | 0:17 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:25 | 0:10 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:07 | 2:34 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:01 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 18 | 17 | 1 | .944 | 59:45 | Win |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 13:25 | 0:07 |
| M. McCarron | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 | 13:05 | 0:14 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 | 11:21 | 0:03 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:48 | 2:38 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:27 | 2:40 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:47 | 1:26 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:39 | 2:39 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:26 | 2:12 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:56 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:37 | 1:31 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 12:18 | 1:17 |
| K. Bellows | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 6:40 | 0:00 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:03 | 0:16 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 22:41 | 1:22 |
| A. Englund | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 19:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:53 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:04 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 2:39 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 25 | 21 | 4 | .840 | 59:46 | Loss |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.1, NSH 2.7 | FLA 4, NSH 1 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 31.7, NSH 28.5 | FLA 25, NSH 18 |
| Win chance | FLA 56% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.5 | 3 | 0.93 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 3.1 | 2 | 0.81 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.1 | 3 | 0.61 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| NSH R. Josi | 3.0 | 1 | 0.83 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.9 | 3 | 0.78 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.7 | 3 | 0.91 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.4 | 0 | 0.98 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.3 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.3 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.0 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 2.0 | 3 | 0.51 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.0 | 5 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 1.9 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.9 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.8 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.8 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH T. Novak | 1.5 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.5 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.4 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.4 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.2 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.2 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.1 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 0.9 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH K. Bellows | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH A. Englund | 0.4 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.