Game Recap: FLA 3, TOR 2, March 13, 2025

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Game Recap

FLA3

FinalThu, Mar 13, 2025Every game that night

TOR2

FLA beat TOR 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.74 expected goals to 2.28. S. Bennett led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Knies had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. S. Bobrovsky stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	1	2	0	3
TOR	1	0	1	2

1st 2:00TORJ. Tavares0.03 xG
1st 17:51FLAS. BennettPP0.04 xG
2nd 13:56FLAN. Mikkola0.11 xG
2nd 17:13FLAS. BennettPP0.14 xG
3rd 4:26TORM. Domi0.16 xG

Team Stats

FLATOR

25Shots on goal25

1.74Expected goals2.28

55Shot attempts52

215v5 shots on goal21

2/3Power play0/3

40Hits24

12Blocked shots14

11Penalty minutes9

18Giveaways7

2Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 1.74 xGTOR 2.28 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA25 on goal, 3 scored

TOR25 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Reinhart	C	0	2	2	0	4	1	-1	0	21:59	4:06
S. Bennett	C	2	0	2	4	2	1	0	2	19:51	4:07
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	2	2	4	2	0	0	0	17:02	4:05
A. Greer	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	2	8:43	0:00
A. Barkov	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	19:59	4:06
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:42	0:26
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	14:49	0:25
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	14:32	0:26
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	14:31	0:27
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:26	0:00
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	3	4	2	0	0	10:14	0:00
J. Gadjovich	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:24	0:00
N. Mikkola	D	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	20:40	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	3	3	3	-1	0	27:57	4:05
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	26:07	0:00
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	19:51	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	10:50	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	7	10:23	0:27

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	25	23	2	.920	60:00	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Tavares	C	1	0	1	1	2	1	+1	0	19:32	3:46
W. Nylander	RW	0	1	1	6	2	1	+1	0	19:27	4:18
M. Domi	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	5	15:23	1:31
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	14:20	1:40
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	22:35	4:26
A. Matthews	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	21:42	4:20
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	20:25	4:18
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	14:05	2:02
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	13:07	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	9:13	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	8:56	0:00
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	8:41	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	1	1	0	2	2	0	2	20:24	1:53
S. Benoit	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	-1	0	13:25	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	20:41	1:45
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	19:37	0:00
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	18:15	0:01
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	17:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	25	22	3	.880	58:06	Loss
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSergei Bobrovsky TOR First game against FLA since he left (his team until Apr 2026)23 saves on 25, the win
Old teamAnthony Stolarz TOR Faces FLA, his team until Jun 202422 saves on 25
HometownCarter Verhaeghe FLA Plays in his hometown2 SOG
HometownJonah Gadjovich FLA Plays near home (born in Whitby)0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 3.2, TOR 2.9	FLA 3, TOR 2
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	FLA 31.9, TOR 26.5	FLA 25, TOR 25
Win chance	FLA 56%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.8	3	1.06	0	43%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.9	6	0.92	1	36%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.9	4	0.63	2	25%	2
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.7	2	0.74	0	29%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.7	0	0.95	2	38%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.5	1	0.79	1	30%	1
FLA A. Barkov	2.2	2	1.00	0	28%	0
FLA G. Forsling	2.1	0	0.40	0	10%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.0	4	0.44	2	19%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.0	1	0.44	0	18%	0
FLA S. Jones	2.0	3	0.50	0	10%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.0	1	1.04	0	28%	0
TOR B. McMann	1.7	3	0.39	0	20%	0
FLA A. Lundell	1.7	0	0.55	0	17%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.7	1	0.56	0	9%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.7	5	0.60	0	25%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.6	2	0.40	0	15%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.5	0	0.36	1	7%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.3	1	0.43	1	12%	1
FLA N. Mikkola	1.3	3	0.25	1	4%	1
TOR C. Jarnkrok	1.3	1	0.32	1	15%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.2	0	0.32	0	6%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.1	0	0.35	0	15%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.1	1	0.33	0	13%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.1	0	0.18	0	5%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	1.0	1	0.29	0	12%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.0	1	0.19	0	4%	0
FLA N. Sturm	0.9	3	0.23	0	11%	0
FLA N. Schmidt	0.9	0	0.24	0	5%	0
FLA A. Greer	0.9	1	0.20	1	8%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.8	0	0.18	0	8%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	0.8	0	0.20	0	4%	0
TOR D. Kampf	0.8	0	0.20	0	9%	0
FLA J. Gadjovich	0.8	0	0.11	0	6%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	0	0.09	1	2%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.6	0	0.21	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.