Game Recap: FLA 2, TOR 3, April 2, 2025

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Game Recap

FLA2

FinalWed, Apr 2, 2025Every game that night

TOR3

TOR beat FLA 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.75 expected goals to 3.34. M. Marner led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Lundell had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. A. Stolarz stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	0	1	1	2
TOR	0	1	2	3

2nd 1:03FLAG. Forsling0.06 xG
2nd 11:31TORJ. Tavares0.07 xG
3rd 10:50TORM. Marner0.24 xG
3rd 15:09TORM. Knies0.21 xG
3rd 17:22FLAS. ReinhartPP0.07 xG

Team Stats

FLATOR

31Shots on goal26

3.34Expected goals2.75

80Shot attempts41

275v5 shots on goal25

1/2Power play0/1

39Hits25

7Blocked shots21

2Penalty minutes4

20Giveaways12

3Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 3.34 xGTOR 2.75 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA31 on goal, 2 scored

TOR26 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Reinhart	C	1	1	2	3	2	0	0	0	21:16	1:55
S. Bennett	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	19:09	2:16
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	1	1	1	2	1	-1	0	15:49	1:54
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	5	0	1	0	0	20:14	0:34
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	19:04	0:28
B. Marchand	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	17:05	1:48
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	0	15:45	0:06
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	13:35	0:00
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:32	0:27
J. Gadjovich	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	10:25	0:00
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:53	0:00
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	9:34	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	1	1	2	5	1	+1	0	26:27	1:52
G. Forsling	D	1	0	1	3	2	1	+1	0	21:22	0:00
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	-2	0	18:54	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	-2	2	17:04	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	16:50	0:30
J. Megna	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	26	23	3	.885	57:40	Loss
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	1	1	2	4	2	0	+1	0	20:40	1:27
M. Knies	LW	1	1	2	1	1	0	+2	0	16:44	1:32
A. Matthews	C	0	1	1	4	2	3	+1	0	20:34	1:32
W. Nylander	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	18:42	1:32
J. Tavares	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	18:19	1:30
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	5	1	0	+1	0	17:04	0:30
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:27	0:28
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:54	0:28
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:21	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	2	10:05	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	9:55	0:00
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:10	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	24:31	0:00
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	+1	2	21:51	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	19:10	0:33
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	2	3	3	+1	0	18:32	0:28
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	0	17:55	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	0	15:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	31	29	2	.935	60:00	Win
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSergei Bobrovsky TOR First game against FLA since he left (his team until Apr 2026)23 saves on 26
Old teamAnthony Stolarz TOR Faces FLA, his team until Jun 202429 saves on 31, the win
HometownCarter Verhaeghe FLA Plays in his hometown2 SOG
HometownJonah Gadjovich FLA Plays near home (born in Whitby)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 3.1, TOR 3.1	FLA 2, TOR 3
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	FLA 31.0, TOR 26.8	FLA 31, TOR 26
Win chance	TOR 51%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.7	4	1.08	1	44%	0
FLA S. Bennett	3.0	2	0.63	1	26%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.8	2	0.92	1	36%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.7	3	0.88	2	36%	1
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.6	2	0.63	0	26%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.4	3	0.82	1	32%	1
FLA S. Jones	2.3	2	0.52	1	11%	0
FLA G. Forsling	2.2	3	0.40	1	10%	1
FLA B. Marchand	2.2	3	0.65	0	23%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.2	1	0.48	1	20%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.1	5	0.45	0	23%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.9	1	0.63	2	26%	1
TOR M. Marner	1.9	4	1.05	2	28%	1
FLA E. Rodrigues	1.8	0	0.37	0	15%	0
FLA A. Lundell	1.7	5	0.49	0	16%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.5	0	0.53	0	8%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.5	2	0.39	0	6%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.4	2	0.24	0	5%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.3	1	0.33	0	13%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.2	1	0.42	0	13%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	1.2	0	0.33	0	15%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.2	0	0.35	1	6%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.1	0	0.31	0	14%	0
FLA N. Schmidt	1.1	1	0.27	0	6%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.1	3	0.31	0	12%	0
TOR B. Carlo	0.9	0	0.17	0	4%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	0.9	1	0.16	0	4%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	1	0.19	0	9%	0
TOR D. Kampf	0.8	0	0.22	0	9%	0
FLA J. Megna	0.8	1	0.13	0	2%	0
FLA A. Greer	0.8	1	0.17	0	7%	0
FLA J. Gadjovich	0.7	1	0.11	0	7%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	0.7	1	0.21	0	9%	0
FLA T. Nosek	0.7	0	0.16	0	5%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.7	1	0.23	0	3%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	0	0.12	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.