FLA beat UTA 4-1, with the chances close: 3.86 expected goals to 3.17. J. Boqvist led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). N. Schmidt had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. S. Bobrovsky stopped 25 of 26.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 3.86 xGUTA 3.17 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:15 | 0:49 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:16 | 0:00 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:38 | 0:49 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:31 | 0:49 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 17:33 | 0:49 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:03 | 0:00 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:40 | 0:00 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:18 | 0:00 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:08 | 0:00 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:26 | 0:00 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:21 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7:35 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 24:37 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:01 | 0:49 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:18 | 0:00 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 19:06 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:40 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:49 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 26 | 25 | 1 | .962 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:47 | 4:48 |
| L. Cooley | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 19:57 | 4:47 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:21 | 4:49 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 16:47 | 4:41 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:47 | 1:54 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:43 | 1:57 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14:33 | 2:00 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:13 | 0:00 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 14:12 | 0:00 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 | 2:04 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:32 | 0:00 |
| L. O'Brien | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:28 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 26:27 | 5:17 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20:07 | 0:00 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:14 | 1:28 |
| J. Välimäki | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:29 | 0:00 |
| V. Kolyachonok | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:28 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 58:44 | Loss |
| J. Stauber | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.3, UTA 3.1 | FLA 4, UTA 1 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 30.9, UTA 28.0 | FLA 33, UTA 26 |
| Win chance | FLA 53% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.7 | 2 | 0.90 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.6 | 2 | 0.75 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.5 | 1 | 0.93 | 1 | 38% | 1 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.4 | 2 | 0.90 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.4 | 4 | 0.59 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.3 | 3 | 0.99 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.3 | 3 | 0.43 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.2 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.0 | 2 | 0.71 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 1.9 | 2 | 0.76 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.9 | 1 | 0.69 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.9 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.8 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.8 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.7 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.5 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.5 | 4 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.4 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.4 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| UTA I. Cole | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA J. Välimäki | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.0 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.0 | 3 | 0.33 | 2 | 14% | 2 |
| FLA A. Greer | 0.9 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 0.9 | 4 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA L. O'Brien | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA V. Kolyachonok | 0.6 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.