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Game Recap
FLA1
VGK4
VGK beat FLA 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.43 expected goals to 3.21. FLA outshot VGK 34 to 26. N. Roy led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). S. Bennett had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. A. Hill stopped 33 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| VGK | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 5:26VGKB. McNabb0.02 xG
- 2nd 5:40VGKT. Pearson0.03 xG
- 3rd 1:56FLAA. Lundell0.08 xG
- 3rd 11:31VGKJ. Eichel0.26 xG
- 3rd 19:31VGKT. HertlEN0.94 xG
Team Stats
FLAVGK
34Shots on goal26
3.21Expected goals4.43
76Shot attempts60
265v5 shots on goal21
0/3Power play0/2
36Hits14
14Blocked shots16
4Penalty minutes6
14Giveaways15
2Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 3.21 xGVGK 4.43 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:00 |
| A. Lundell | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:03 | 1:14 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:25 | 3:33 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 22:09 | 2:57 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 21:05 | 2:54 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:55 | 2:39 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:14 | 1:49 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:44 | 2:58 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:25 | 1:49 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:22 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 8:26 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 23:30 | 3:01 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:32 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:15 | 1:46 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:35 | 0:02 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:13 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 25 | 22 | 3 | .880 | 56:42 | Loss |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 14:15 | 0:45 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Eichel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:18 | 2:03 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:15 | 0:43 |
| T. Hertl | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:00 | 2:02 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:47 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:04 | 0:00 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:40 | 2:04 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:06 | 0:00 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:39 | 2:04 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:44 |
| J. Rondbjerg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:03 | 0:00 |
| B. McNabb | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 0 | 24:41 | 0:00 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 24:22 | 0:43 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:33 | 2:13 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:10 | 0:34 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:46 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:38 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Hill | 34 | 33 | 1 | .971 | 60:00 | Win |
| I. Samsonov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 2.6, VGK 3.2 | FLA 1, VGK 4 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 27.7, VGK 30.0 | FLA 34, VGK 26 |
| Win chance | VGK 59% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.4 | 1 | 1.13 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.8 | 3 | 0.93 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.7 | 3 | 0.63 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.4 | 6 | 0.53 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.4 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.2 | 3 | 0.75 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.2 | 1 | 0.82 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.1 | 2 | 0.87 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.1 | 5 | 0.65 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.0 | 1 | 1.01 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.0 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.9 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.9 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.7 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.6 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.6 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.5 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.4 | 1 | 0.63 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.3 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.3 | 1 | 0.40 | 3 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 2 | 4% | 1 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.1 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK J. Rondbjerg | 0.9 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.9 | 3 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.